adammccormicks
What will be the AAA average price for regular unleaded gasoline in the US on Sunday, March 8th?
Price released early Sunday was $1.947, up 0.1¢ from Saturday's report
Background:
Stock values and energy prices have been in a renewed state of disarray all month as traders continue to fret about the terrible financial condition of the banking industry and what the U.S. government might or might not do about it.
New multi-year lows are being set across the major stock indexes and oil can't seem to decide if it wants to stay above or below $40 per barrel. These rather chaotic price moves make any attempt to forecast retail gasoline prices almost impossible right now.
For example, oil was trading near $35 per barrel last week, the price went above $40 and closed today near $45 per barrel. Reformulated gasoline ended today's trading near $1.30 per gallon, even though wholesale fuel has been priced for most of this month near $1.20 per gallon.
Looking at these numbers, one could conclude the market simply doesn't believe oil and gasoline producers have cut output enough to reign in supply at a time of falling demand. If this is so, then these prices could be pointing toward an even slower economy in the months ahead.
Settlement details:As reported by http://www.fuelgaugereport.com around 3 am, Sunday morning. This market will suspend at 11:59 pm the day before (Saturday night). All times EST (GMT -5h).
| $2.000 and above |
| |||
| 1.975 - 1.999 |
| |||
| 1.950 - 1.974 |
| |||
| 1.925 - 1.949 |
| |||
| 1.900 - 1.924 |
| |||
| 1.875 - 1.899 |
| |||
| 1.850 - 1.874 |
| |||
| 1.825 - 1.849 |
| |||
| 1.800 - 1.824 |
| |||
| 1.799 and below |
|
- Activity: H$81,276 |
- Predictions: 237 |
Comments: 5
Suspend date: Sat 7th Mar 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 8th Mar 4:57am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 7th Mar 11:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: $2.000 and above: 5%, 1.975 - 1.999: 5%, 1.950 - 1.974: 10%, 1.925 - 1.949: 10%, 1.900 - 1.924: 20%, 1.875 - 1.899: 20%, 1.850 - 1.874: 10%, 1.825 - 1.849: 10%, 1.800 - 1.824: 5%, 1.799 and below: 5%
Action history:
adammccormicks 
hfl13
: 1,947
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Price released early Sunday was $1.947, up 0.1¢ from Saturday's report 
Suspend date: Sat 7th Mar 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 8th Mar 4:57am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 7th Mar 11:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (237)
soccer4529
predicted 1.925 - 1.949 (H$500 at 62%)
predicted 1.900 - 1.924 (H$50 at 1%)Comments (5)
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Someone probably cashed-out that market position for a profit. That would make that option drop. Then if they re-bet on the 1.950 option, the 1.925 would drop even further.
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