How many Hubdubbers will have more than H$ 500,000 on May 15th?

#24 that's me! I just became Oracle a few days ago :)

A lot lot more then today! This place is full of QE!

Queen of England?

quibble enthusiasts?

QE=Quantative easing. The creation of money out of thin air!

ah. I guess I should have known. :-§

and I thought, 500 new sign ups would have had lost all their money just for me to reach the 500k ;-)

Lots of QE? as far as I can see we've only created around 39 million hubdollars from settlements, and around 6 million from login credits, referral credits and other promotions combined. and since the top 20 must account for most of that on their own, the rest is from broked users. don't you feel guilty now kruijs :-P

Every new question creates new money, as no money is used to back it's opening % estimates.

I sure as hell wish it were as easy in real world to make money as it is on HubDub. I registered in October, bur only actually started playing at the end of December. Dec 20th I had net worth of H$ 1,050. Two and a half months later I am sitting on 213,000, with a tidy profit of H$20,000 just today. I love QE......

I suspect it will follow the 80/20 rule - 80% of the wealth ends up with 20% of the users.
That rule usually applies within bands too - say top 100.

The initial supply is No. of Users * SignUp + Users Per Day *20; I'm not sure if questions do create wealth with the formula used here. If so, is it mispricing (e.g. would a question like "Will Barack Obama still be President by tomorrow noon with Yes set at 1% initially create more than if it were set more realistically at 99+%)? Or - say it is a pure 50/50 question, correctly priced - is it just an imbalance in how people bet vs. the eventual result? (In this case imagine 1000 bet on heads, 600 on tails - if it comes out heads, wealth is up 400, otherwise it is a net loss of 400.)

I do like the feature of HubDub that you always bet 'against the system' rather than another player - but if mispricing is the source of inflation, then I suppose you might want/need to make players 'make book' on questions they create to cover any mismatch (you give an initial stake to limit the size of the 'pot' and only as 'matching' bets enter would the 'jackpot' grow). If 'inflation' is just an artifact of the imbalance in betting, then I imagine it would cancel out.

hey guys, don't count on me in this :-$

Aw Kruijs, you're up to number 22 - and still just short of the 500k mark.

But I do wonder - I suppose the folks near 500k could affect the outcome by buying or selling from their portfolio, but that could be expensive...

uhm, a few days ago I've been #21 with 520k, hehe

... oh yes, loosing 20k was just a test to see if I could affect the results

(mostly) worked, you're now 24th... :-)

... but if you were 25th (or any of the band ends), you could affect the outcome...

... as you're near the 500k cutoff. - Tell your friends how you're betting! +$+

I'm working on it, bookie,
just hold on a few days

:)

Since I might influence the results of this question I've cashed in my (21-25) bet. If everything goes well I could be above 500k in the first 3-4 days of April. If not, I could bet on this question no worries because I will jump back to less than 400k.

be cautious - the 500 mark is very sticky. I can't get away from it since one month, really.

Kruijs, I've had sticky marks before. I sticked around 170k, 320k. I'd love to stick around 500k but I'm pretty sure it won't be the case.

dazzler!

;-)

When I posted here 3 wks ago, I made it up to a bit over 200k in 2 + months. Now 386k. I'll do my darnest to get up there and push the number over 30, 'cause that's where my bets are.....
kruijs, get off your bum and win some H$!! You've been stuck for weeks - come on, I need some help here! Bogdan, keep up the good work and don't slide backwards!
Good luck to all, this should be fun.

Oh no, it's up to 26!

(working on it)

Martin, I'm safe now, roughly 400k in cash so little risk. Count me above 500k.

Count me as a could be - I "only" need 170K but with a good month its possible.

@tuff - Why are you not asking for 16+-stars (Oracle and above) in the question? All these numbers questions only use the needed HD$ and not the star-system.

Ok, hfl, good idea, will do next time. The short answer is I did not think of it. Thanks.

hfl13, I'm counting on you and sqlman and me ( all well on pace to do it) and maybe a couple of others. I am counting on bgrig and the others to not mess up and drop...

Goals are nice

I will do it for you, tuff. But you will be the first.

We (the fast gainers) have enough time.

More intersting: when will we be millionaires?

By July 1, I hope. That will help my other market.....

Less than 50k to get to Oracle! Come on, guys, try to keep up....

@tuff you are too fast. Before April 15th you will succed. ;-)

Within 5K of the goal today!

within 10K of dropping out today :)

Hello, krijs - I'm honored to be catching up to such distinguished company.
Don't mess up like Gtown did, I need to get the number of Oracles up to at least 31 by May 15th!
I seem to be oh, so close, but not quite there. < 1k to go. Just need one or two more markets to settle.

congratz, you made it, tuff!
it's just a little step to catch up with orlin now ;-)

I'm working on it... Thanks

It's going to be close, but by my reckoning, hfl13, dieseldog and Erik will make Oracle before May 15th. That will make 31. I don't see anybody else making it, unless bb wakes up and starts to play.

But, how many Oracles will rise to superdubber?

don't count me. i don't see myself making $27,511 by may 15th.

C'm on, dd, you're up 28K for the quarter (3 wks into it) all you need is to match that in the next 3 wks.
I have faith in you, man. You should have the cash to make some good bets. Gotta play markets which close soon....

@Erik: That's my other market. Tough call at this point.Somewhere between 15 and 17 is my best guess. If you get really busy, you could be one of them...

Pressure an dd :-) But don´t miss pmk - he is able to win 200K with one bet. I will have some bumps this week but my 489K should stay above 460 and one more week should bring me to Oracle / the DOW falls to 7500.

Congratz, hfl, you made Oracle!!
Well done!
Now, you just need another 500k by July 1st.....

On the 1M market, some discussion sprang up about high-ranking players not showing up on leaderboards. I have no idea how this happens, but there seems to be one missing millionaire, who disappeared into thin air a couple of weeks ago. If this player re-appears, this could affect this market as well. Does anybody have any insight into this mystery??

Thanks tuff. Not impossible - just read my aim for end of June again (low 750K high 1 Mio) and so far I outperform my high aims. Maybe and with some luck.

@tuff: If they (the hidden millionaires) don´t reappear by the suspend date, they don´t count. Otherwise we have to fix our bets.

Settlement source (even faulty) is the Leaderboard.

I don't know, if the hidden Oracles do not show up, this is a problem, but since you can find at least some of them (f-o-f, for example), then they should count in my opinion. We need the Cat Ed to make a ruling here, but best would be if they fix the problem. As I understand it, it is not a choice you make (to be invisible), it's some kind of a glitch. When this question and the 1M one were created, f_o_f was visible and my initial wagers were based on the totals then displayed. It is not correct for some to vanish.

The Unofficial Incomplete List of Stealth 'Dubers

http://www.hubdub.com/users/4quad
http://www.hubdub.com/users/adin
http://www.hubdub.com/users/agarrett64
http://www.hubdub.com/users/agent_ocho
http://www.hubdub.com/users/aimless
http://www.hubdub.com/users/alarmmd
http://www.hubdub.com/users/alestanga
http://www.hubdub.com/users/alienski
http://www.hubdub.com/users/badwisdom
http://www.hubdub.com/users/barackify
http://www.hubdub.com/users/brainopera
http://www.hubdub.com/users/bsawyer
http://www.hubdub.com/users/castlenak (this one's worth 31k!)
http://www.hubdub.com/users/chukhatrok
http://www.hubdub.com/users/circus1
http://www.hubdub.com/users/clocksailor
http://www.hubdub.com/users/dancingballerina
http://www.hubdub.com/users/dasorakelvondelphi
http://www.hubdub.com/users/dave_the_forecaster
http://www.hubdub.com/users/dudedudester
http://www.hubdub.com/users/eggarsuit
http://www.hubdub.com/users/fingers_of_fury me, myself & I
http://www.hubdub.com/users/flanders
http://www.hubdub.com/users/ghigo
http://www.hubdub.com/users/haxsawlc
http://www.hubdub.com/users/hubdubrob
http://www.hubdub.com/users/iceblue
http://www.hubdub.com/users/inspector
http://www.hubdub.com/users/jennybunny
http://www.hubdub.com/users/johan
http://www.hubdub.com/users/johann_sasarman
http://www.hubdub.com/users/john
http://www.hubdub.com/users/kaveh
http://www.hubdub.com/users/kearon
http://www.hubdub.com/users/kgholderman
http://www.hubdub.com/users/kida (this one's worth 41k!)
http://www.hubdub.com/users/kimbuctu
http://www.hubdub.com/users/luobete
http://www.hubdub.com/users/mark1ow
http://www.hubdub.com/users/mary7
http://www.hubdub.com/users/mikidee
http://www.hubdub.com/users/mksoren
http://www.hubdub.com/users/mollie88
http://www.hubdub.com/users/moqui
http://www.hubdub.com/users/muehli
http://www.hubdub.com/users/munchie
http://www.hubdub.com/users/napp
http://www.hubdub.com/users/nellie
http://www.hubdub.com/users/nicbak
http://www.hubdub.com/users/oppugner (this one's worth 117k!)
http://www.hubdub.com/users/piterwilson
http://www.hubdub.com/users/powerslave736
http://www.hubdub.com/users/professionaleccentric
http://www.hubdub.com/users/psyco99
http://www.hubdub.com/users/rahul8286
http://www.hubdub.com/users/ranchman
http://www.hubdub.com/users/renob
http://www.hubdub.com/users/rochy
http://www.hubdub.com/users/shadow
http://www.hubdub.com/users/shpankov
http://www.hubdub.com/users/strollboston
http://www.hubdub.com/users/tchi
http://www.hubdub.com/users/the_fake_decider
http://www.hubdub.com/users/tom37
http://www.hubdub.com/users/wirkorio
http://www.hubdub.com/users/zdenek

Sorted alphabetically for your viewing pleasure.

Wow! How did you find that?

@jenni - they're all my accounts so they were easy to find.











jk ;-)

I went to google (noun) to google (verb) "Leaderboard: not available yet site:hubdub.com" and google (noun) returned Results 1 - 10 of about 1,160 from hubdub.com for leaderboard: not available yet. (0.12 seconds)
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&rlz=1C1GGLS_enUS291US303&ei=Z2rySbj4ForIMrvBycwO&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=leaderboard:+not+available+yet+site:hubdub.com&spell=1

fof, you rouck! and google rocks, I had not thought of that trick..
So, jenni, what can be doe to fix this???
As best as I can tell from the available information and links, there is definitely one stealth millionaire and nobody else is within reasonable distance of 500K.
So, we need to get a ruling as to whether this should settle on the basis of best available information or on the basis of faulty hubdub leaaderbord data......

@fof - That is truly brilliant. Well done!

@tuff - I dunno. I sent the devs a note as well and haven't heard back. I know they're crazy busy with some other dev work this week, so its possible they just don't have time to dig out the bug. Hopefully we'll hear back from them soon.

The settlement source says "Leaderboard" so I believe that should be the settlement source regardless of what's going on with FoF. Nigel should offer a clarification on that soon.

I guess you're right. I bow to superior authority. Kind of chancy to know if they will fix it in time or not. Best to hedge one's bets, I suppose....

OK, the stealth players are back. There are now 30 Oralcles. We just need one more!
Come on, dd, come on Erik, you can do it. Gotta bet on questions that closes before the 15th...
I have faith in you.....
bayoubear seems to be hibernating. Can somebody tell him it's spring and he needs to get a move on!

Don´t encourage them - diesel & Erik please take a really long vacation - you both seemed stressed lately ;-)

hfl, I have a feeling we are on the opposite side of this bet.

BTW, hfl, you're toast. Look at the pace sqlman is setting. He will easily make Oracle by May 15th at this pace. So, no worries, it's in the bag for 31-35! YEA!!!!

Don´t underestimate my evil plan to loose 300K on the last day. :-)

That might hurt your chances of making Superdubber by July 1st :) :)

Way to go, lola, you're smokin'. go for it and skip over those slouches just ahead of you, you're on pace to get to Oracle by may 15 and cinch my bet on 31+. GO, LOLA!!
kruijs, you're killing me. can't seem to get away from that 500k mark! c'me on, you can do it!

Thanks for the encouragement Tuff_Sledding. I'll do my best to make Oracle by May 15th! :-)

I have a feeling kruijs is gaming this market. He's been hanging around that 500K mark an awful long time.....

@ tuff_sledding: I wouldn't be surprised if Frogchop makes a run at $500,000 by 5/15 as well. He's been putting up some killer numbers over the past few days and weeks, so there are a few players out there who might be able to help this question settle in the 31-35 range. Good Luck!

lola, you did it!!! Congratz and thanks for helping to get to 31 Oracles. So far, you're the only one of the maybes that did it. dieseldog is still dogging it at 495k and Erik is stuck at 475K. frog needs to make a pretty big leap to make it by Friday! Froggie, can you do it??
Cheers, M. AKA tuff_sledding

Well, if it would have been closer, you would have had to look for suitable big bets of the maybes (if there are public ones) and pump some money into those markets.. There's some risk in it, but these leaderboard questions aren't that hard to game.