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When will the NFL players lost at sea be found?

Settled as Both have not been found by March 7th

Unfortunately, even the families appear to have given up.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/06/missing.boaters/index.html

Background:

Background: CLEARWATER, Fla. (AP)—Two NFL players are among a group of boaters reported missing off Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Sports agent Ron Del Duca said his client, Detroit Lions defensive end Corey Smith, and Oakland Raiders linebacker Marquis Cooper were two of the four boaters who were reported missing Sunday morning by the Coast Guard.

The Coast Guard issued a statement saying the boaters were on a 21-foot vessel that left Clearwater Pass on Saturday morning for a fishing trip and did not return as expected. Crews used a helicopter and a 47-foot motor-life boat to search a 750-square mile area west of Clearwater Pass on Sunday.

Agent: 2 NFL players among Fla. missing boaters

Of course we are concerned about all of the boaters involved. However, as the story does not give any details about how many may be missing nor that there may be more than 1 boat involved, the question will ask only about the 2 NFL players.

Smith and Cooper must BOTH be found to settle on a date. If only 1 or neither is found by the suspend date, then the question will settle as both have not been found.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Both found by midnight March 1st
0%
Both found on March 2nd
0%
Both found on March 3rd
0%
Both found on March 4th
0%
Both found on March 5th
0%
Both found on March 6th
0%
Both have not been found by March 7th
100%
Settled as Both have not been found by March 7th on Fri 6th Mar 8:59pm PST

Suspend date: Fri 6th Mar 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 6th Mar 8:59pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 6th Mar 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Both found by midnight March 1st: 30%, Both found on March 2nd: 20%, Both found on March 3rd: 5%, Both found on March 4th: 5%, Both found on March 5th: 5%, Both found on March 6th: 5%, Both have not been found by March 7th: 30%

Action history:

Created Sun 1st Mar 11:59am PST by mrperfkt[Admin]
Suspended Mon 2nd Mar 10:30am PST by destry[Admin]: Suspended pending breaking news.
Unsuspended Mon 2nd Mar 10:39am PST by mrperfkt[Admin]: The person found clinging to the boat was not one of the players. Others are all still missing.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/02/florida.missing.boaters/index.html
Suspended Fri 6th Mar 8:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Both have not been found by March 7th' Fri 6th Mar 8:59pm PST by mrperfkt[Admin]: Unfortunately, even the families appear to have given up.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/06/missing.boaters/index.html

Suspend date: Fri 6th Mar 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 6th Mar 8:59pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 6th Mar 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (315)

35 weeks ago
janalyst predicted Both have not been found by March 7th (H$1,000 at 98%)
35 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted Both have not been found by March 7th (H$500 at 98%)
35 weeks ago
davey predicted Both have not been found by March 7th (H$780 at 98%)
35 weeks ago
davey predicted Both have not been found by March 7th (H$100 at 98%)
35 weeks ago
gms12045 predicted Both have not been found by March 7th (H$100 at 98%)

Comments (48)

  1 mrperfkt[Admin]
More details on this story:

http://www.tampabays10.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=101485&catid=8
posted 35 weeks ago
  2 arleyguy
how are we defining 'found' here, do we include alive and the unfortunate event of their bodies being found?
posted 35 weeks ago
  3 mrperfkt[Admin]
In whatever condition they are found should settle the question.
posted 35 weeks ago
  4 tgallag2
So one being found doesn't count?
posted 35 weeks ago
  5 tgallag2
Oops I should have read the settlement details, I went right for the comments, sorry!
posted 35 weeks ago
  6 lcsnor
What's going to be the outcome if one is found on one day and another on another day, or not at all? Should all the options read both found BY rather than both found ON?
posted 35 weeks ago
  7 coolkraft
media reports one person with overturned boat found//no knowledge of who or if this is their boat;however, no other boats are missing
posted 35 weeks ago
not looking good for the other 3 missing guys. what a horrid ordeal. i so hope those other guys had life vests on but damn if i haven't gone out ti sea with men who refuse to wear one....in fact, i can't think of a single one that ever did.
posted 35 weeks ago
  11 mrperfkt[Admin]
The person found clinging to the boat was not one of the players. Others are all still missing.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/02/florida.missing.boaters/index.html
posted 35 weeks ago
more guys wind up drowning while out sailing because they don't wear a vest or tie off and they'll be taking a leak and fall overboard. amazing the number of fellows they find with their zippers down. I'm sure that's not the case here but I felt like talking about it.
posted 35 weeks ago
Remind me not to piss off a boat in the middle of the ocean next time we go out to sea.
posted 35 weeks ago
  14 emmag
Two NFL players, two University players. One uni player found so far. The boat was not big enough to go so far out, and the seas became rough.
posted 35 weeks ago
  16 triciebird
this is a rather sad story...
posted 35 weeks ago
it's downright tragic. i feel awful for them and their families. i've spent a lot of time out to sea and you get thrown a lot of curve balls. being in a boat that size would just SUCK. wonder what the water temp is.
posted 35 weeks ago
  18 mrperfkt[Admin]
Water temp is in the mid to upper 60's. Some concern about hypothermia:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=Am1hM5cuX4f911spDBOuH1k5nYcB?slug=ap-missingboaters-nfl&prov=ap&type=lgns
posted 35 weeks ago
  19 frogchop
That's way too long to be in the water. If they were in a raft or able to cling to the boat, they'd have a chance, but unfortunately, the odds are getting pretty bleak at this point for finding them alive.
posted 35 weeks ago
  20 bayoubear[Admin]
Just to clarify...what if one is found on the 4th and the other on the 5th or 6th...how would that settle...as both being found on (by) the 6th?
posted 35 weeks ago
good question bayou....
posted 35 weeks ago
  22 coolkraft
coast guard has announced they are suspending search today...
posted 35 weeks ago
wow. if that were my loved one i'd be flippin out.
posted 35 weeks ago
  25 frogchop
That survivor is going to face a real grilling over the next few weeks. Nobody is going to want to accept that two strong young men simply gave up their will to survive, but the story isn't unusual. Very few people would have the courage and mental toughness to cling to that boat for two long days with little hope of rescue in open water.
posted 35 weeks ago
well, in addition to dehydration and hypothermia, you have to stay somewhat awake to actually cling to the boat. i wonder if they were so fatigued that a big wave just washed em away from the boat and they did not have the strength to swim back. it sounds like nick is saying they were with him up till just 4 or 5 hours before he was found.

and was he was found sitting on the motor, or at least it appears that way from the news i've saw. that was a great spot to be and there was only room for one. hope there wasn't some kinda power struggle for that seat.
posted 35 weeks ago
  27 mrperfkt[Admin]
@bayoubear - As stated in the background, the question is asking about both being found. So, I'd tend to lean towards settling once/if that were to happen (when criteria for both have been met).
When the question was created, I guess I was hoping for a more positive outcome and the possibility that the boat would be found with everyone together. Sadly, the chances are not looking good at this point as the searches have been called off and authorities have already told the families to prepare for the worst.
posted 35 weeks ago
  28 sqlman[Admin]
FWIW, I was at the beach on Saturday about 100 miles south of where the boat flipped, and, though the air temp was in the low 80s, that water was easily cold enough to sap the strength from even a professional athlete in not too many hours... No conspiracy, and no crime by Schuyler; just a group of under-prepared guys in a too-small boat going where they shouldn't ought to have gone.
posted 35 weeks ago
  29 coolkraft
The survivor is a fitness instructor who was in top physical condition and worked out every day. I am sure that helped.
posted 35 weeks ago
  31 frogchop
They were all in remarkable shape. Two of the three that have likely perished were highly paid professional athletes, the other was an aspiring college athlete. What happens in the mind is far more important in a survival situation than the condition of the body, once you take into account basic fitness. The basic elements of survival is that a human being can live roughly 3 minutes without air, 3 hours without protection from the elements in a hostile environment, 3 days without water and 3 weeks without food. In this case, they were up against the wall on three out of four elements; surrounded by water to drown in, immersed in a fluid that constantly pulls away body heat, and the salt water pulling fluids from their body faster than if they were on dry land. The fact that one survived after 48 hours is remarkable; he's a rare breed that can keep it together in conditions like that. Unfortunately, his long-term survival is still at risk. The media will put him under immense pressure in the coming days and the risk of PTSD after an event like this, particularly with the delay in processing that the media can inflict, makes his recovery a challenging long road ahead.
posted 35 weeks ago
  32 mrperfkt[Admin]
A "bizarre" update to the story. The survivor reported that after a few hours, the 2 NFL players decided they'd had enough and removed their life jackets....

http://news.aol.com/article/missing-nfl-players/363480
posted 35 weeks ago
I was living on a sailboat in Jewfish Creek in Key Largo with my cat. I had a 17' Boat I tied off the sailboat that due to the current in that creek would drift in and out from the bigger boat.

My cat, Pierce...a gorgeous Russian Blue, liked to jump from one boat to the other while playing. One night while I was sleeping he missed and went into the water. I was devastated but believed the cat had made it to shore. And it turns out he did. But despite me looking for him day and night and calling him, he wouldn't come out of his hiding spot.

10 days later he finally appeared and wandered into traffic on the bridge there and got hit. The salt water must have made him crazy....delusional is what I mean. That cat loved me like nobody's business and for him to have made land, cleaned himself off and then hid from me didn't make sense. Seems trauma in saltwater has a profound effect on the psyche.
posted 35 weeks ago
  34 frogchop
mrperfkt, I saw that part of the story yesterday. There's an episode of "I shouldn't be alive" on Discovery where a gal was adrift at sea with three others and two of them did exactly the same thing. They jumped out of the life raft and tried to swim. Saltwater and the sea can make you crazy.

I just read an amazing story of survival called Red Sky in Mourning where a couple gets caught in a category 5 hurricane in the middle of the Pacific. The lady's will to survive was insatiable, yet less than 50 miles from rescue, she almost gave up, after 40 days alone at sea in a broken boat.
posted 35 weeks ago
  35 sqlman[Admin]
The Coast Guard may have given up, but the search continues...

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/29454121/
posted 35 weeks ago
"jewfish creek"? Where is this river, germany?
posted 35 weeks ago
  37 coolkraft
@dragon ... again ignorance ...this body of water is in Florida where there is great fishing. If an attempt at humor it is not funny
posted 35 weeks ago
I didn't find diesel's crack all that heart warming either. and people wonder why i have it in for old, white republicans.

cool, I lived in Jew Fish creek a little over a year on my sailboat on a mooring. Loved it...could hear the bands that played at Gilberts Tiki Bar wafting across the water....would take my little boat out to snorkel and fish....the Xmas Christmas parades....it was awesome. I used to swim with the manatees there. Good times, cept for losing my cat. That hurt.
posted 35 weeks ago
Huh.. ordanarily id be yelling "GET A JOB HIPPY" right about now but i am worried that i wouldnt make the humor cut set by coolkraft.
posted 35 weeks ago
  40 coolkraft
@dragon...no comparison with get a job hippy and jewfish creek ...where is this river germany? when you get your foot out of your big mouth that will be a humor cut I will enjoy.
posted 35 weeks ago
  41 coolkraft
con2, we cruised and lived for many years on our sailboat; down from NY extensively in FL and to the Bahamas many times so I well versed in boating.
posted 35 weeks ago
cool....good for you. i wonder if we ever met. i sailed the bahamas many times myself and kept the boat in jewfish for a bit over a year and in miami for 3 years. loved it, miss it, want to return to that lifestyle bad. it's not the same here in the pacific northwest, although the motorcycle riding is far superior. and i still have access to really cheap seafood.

but yeah, it's gonna be in my blood forever. perhaps my next husband will be a sailor, although it'll be harder to outlive this one. he's younger than me.
posted 35 weeks ago
Maybe you can use your sailing skills to rescue these nfl players. If there still alive that is.
posted 35 weeks ago
  44 coolkraft
@dragon...now you have both feet in your mouth...what a ridiculously stupid, uncaring comment!!
posted 35 weeks ago
Rediculous: Yes, Stupid: Probably, but uncaring? How do you figure?
posted 35 weeks ago
dragon, you're truly despicable.
posted 35 weeks ago
I guess so. But honestly is it wrong to admit the fact that these people are most likley dead?
posted 35 weeks ago
  48 dieseldog
yea thats alot worse than any comments conartist has ever made. shame on you dragonfang. as for my not so heart warming comment. i had to put "cat" in there to avoid getting in trouble. so now you know what i really ment. its ok if conartist makes "despicable" comments, but don't dare make any she disagree's with. typical hypocritical liberal.
posted 35 weeks ago

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