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Will the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon reveal a Syrian involvement?

Background: An international court convened to try suspects in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik al-Hariri opened on Sunday, four years after the politician's death.

Hariri and 22 other people were killed in a car bomb blast in Beirut on February 14, 2005.

Hariri's murder sparked a worldwide outcry and some anti-Syrian Lebanese politicians have said Syria was behind the bombing, a charge Damascus denies.

Daniel Bellemare, prosecutor for the tribunal told reporters at the opening ceremony he has 60 days to ask Lebanese authorities to transfer people and evidence to The Hague. Bellemare said he would continue to gather evidence and may file several indictments during the process.

"As soon as I think I have enough evidence against someone or a group of persons, I will present an indictment," he said.

It is expected the tribunal will take about three to five years to hear the case.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gEX260xe829jyndakU99XlrWErmg
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE52019C20090301
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hpIBukLg9VzwpDO1vT9YG21L-AzgD96L6D680
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE51Q60S20090227

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. As an involvement of Syria in this question, any indictment against at least one member of the Syrian government, secret services or military, both former or current, would count.

 
Forecast history %
It closes inconclusively
46%
It reveals an involvement of Syria
14%
It reveals no Syrian involvement
40%
Question suspends in 1 year
 

Predictions (119)

35 weeks ago
charlesf predicted It reveals an involvement of Syria (H$100 at 13%)
35 weeks ago
charlesf predicted It reveals an involvement of Syria (H$50 at 12%)
40 weeks ago
aland predicted It closes inconclusively (H$100 at 46%)
40 weeks ago
undercontrol predicted It closes inconclusively (H$20 at 46%)
41 weeks ago
staarink predicted It reveals an involvement of Syria (H$50 at 12%)

Comments (4)

  1 coolkraft
wow I hate to bet on a 2 year question; but this one tempts me
posted 1 year ago
I don't have such a long investment horizon. I want my H$'s working at all times, not lying around for 2 years.....
posted 1 year ago
  3 bernardo
How is it going to be decided if it closes inconclusively or no Syrian involvement is revealed? To me these two options sound pretty much the same.
posted 45 weeks ago
  4 kruijs[Power User]
New Evidence Points to Hezbollah in Hariri Murder

The United Nations special tribunal investigating the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri has reached surprising new conclusions -- and it is keeping them secret. According to information obtained by SPIEGEL, investigators now believe Hezbollah was behind the Hariri murder.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,626412,00.html
posted 43 weeks ago

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