Created Sun 1st Mar 2:32pm PST by

kruijs [Power User]

Will Iranian authorities release journalist Roxana Saberi on or before March 31st?

Settled as Arrest confirmed; she is not released

Saberi's arrest was officially confirmed weeks ago, yet she has not been released.

Background:

Background: U.S. journalist Roxana Saberi has been arrested in Iran - she was detained on Feb. 1st after buying a bottle of wine, she told her father in a brief phone call.

Buying and selling alcohol is illegal in the Islamic republic. Officials in Iran have not publicly confirmed the arrest. Human rights groups have repeatedly criticized Iran for arresting journalists and suppressing freedom of speech.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jtc4ZPwAAlsEPOdCKWCJam-DLMggD96LDVL81

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Arrest confirmed; she is not released

99%

Arrest confirmed; she is released

Arrest not publicly confirmed; she is not released

Arrest not publicly confirmed; she is released

Other outcome

Settled as Arrest confirmed; she is not released on Wed 1st Apr 5:02am PST

Activity: H$45,554
Predictions: 178
Comments: 14

Suspend date: Tue 31st Mar 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 1st Apr 5:02am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 31st Mar 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Arrest confirmed; she is not released: 20%, Arrest confirmed; she is released: 30%, Arrest not publicly confirmed; she is not released: 20%, Arrest not publicly confirmed; she is released: 20%, Other outcome: 10%

Action history:

Created Sun 1st Mar 2:32pm PST by

kruijs [Power User]

Changed Question text Mon 2nd Mar 6:12am PST by

ryanj

: show details

... Will ~~Iran~~Iranian authorities release journalist Roxana Saberi

Changed Description Mon 2nd Mar 6:12am PST by

ryanj

: show details

... and suppressing freedom of speech~~. <~~.<br/> <br/> <a href="http://

Suspended Tue 31st Mar 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 1st Apr 4:44am PST by

Erik

: Arrest has been confirmed (see comments for links), no reports of release. Please settle.

Settled as 'Arrest confirmed; she is not released' Wed 1st Apr 5:02am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: Saberi's arrest was officially confirmed weeks ago, yet she has not been released.

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Predictions (178)

33 weeks ago

guruzilla Level 8, Super-Pro (H$7,157)

predicted Arrest confirmed; she is not released (H$50 at 85%)

34 weeks ago

deelilley Level 15, Seer (H$416,478)

predicted Arrest confirmed; she is not released (H$100 at 77%)

34 weeks ago

nico_x Level 6, Player (H$2,823)

predicted Arrest confirmed; she is not released (H$20 at 81%)

34 weeks ago

leverette Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,340)

predicted Arrest confirmed; she is not released (H$50 at 81%)

34 weeks ago

koester Level 14, Prophet (H$193,384)

predicted Arrest not publicly confirmed; she is not released (H$50 at 3%)

Comments (14)

buckeyetom Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,701,677)

Iran sounds like Mexico. They both seem to arrest people on trumped-up charges and then start running you through their crooked judicial systems just to get money from the families.

posted 37 weeks ago

tgallag2 Level 13, Psychic (H$55,920)

Would "other outcome" include no new information, or would no new information mean "Arrest is not confirmed, she is not released" would win? If the second choice, then what would "other outcome" include? Thank you.

posted 37 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

If there's no further news by the suspension date, this should settle as option #3. 'Other outcome' is, as usual, a catch-all for some unforeseen eventuality...

posted 37 weeks ago

buckeyetom Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,701,677)

We now know that she has been announced to be publicly arrested, so she will only be released or not released by March, 31st.

posted 37 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

correct, buckeyetom:

Iran said Monday that a U.S. journalist detained about a month ago was engaged in "illegal" activities because she continued working after the government revoked her press credentials in 2006. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hasan Qashqavi did not specify why Roxana Saberi's credentials were revoked and refused to say whether the 31-year-old freelance journalist, who has reported for National Public Radio and other media, was in prison.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hgpxIes1NOxOpPa9HK0Shfj2kLiwD96M1TH02

posted 37 weeks ago

bornagainatheist

I'm curious, if she was arrested for buying wine because it is "illegal to buy or sell alcohol" was the seller arrested as well? As a matter of fact, were the people responsible for "smuggling" the wine into the country arrested as well?

posted 37 weeks ago

conspiracy2riot Level 14, Prophet (H$100,047)

and what's the penalty for a crime like this?

posted 37 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

FYI, Iran has now made it officially official: she was arrested: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090303/wl_mideast_afp/usiranmediaarrest_20090303165030

posted 37 weeks ago

oocares Level 13, Psychic (H$56,051)

Another drug user gets locked up!

posted 36 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

She should be released in 'a few weeks', meaning she likely won't make the 3/31 cutoff for this market.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29765623/

posted 35 weeks ago

buckeyetom Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,701,677)

Here's two conflicting paragraphs taken from the same news article:

Saberi said his daughter told him she had met with a prosecutor in Tehran and been told she may be in prison for several months and possibly up to two years.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has demanded that Tehran immediately release the journalist. And an official from the Iranian prosecutor's office said earlier this month that Iran's investigation of Saberi had been completed and she would be freed soon.

posted 34 weeks ago

randburg Level 19, Uberdubber (H$4,999,802)

So arrest is confirmed, and the only question is WHEN will she be released?

posted 33 weeks ago

buckeyetom Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,701,677)

Monday, March 30, 2009 (AP)
FARGO, North Dakota — The father of imprisoned Iranian-Americna journalist Roxana Saberi says he and his wife are going to Iran this week to see his daughter and speed her release.

Reza Saberi says he and his wife, Akiko, will leave their home in Fargo on Monday afternoon and hope to be in Tehran by Wednesday

posted 33 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

Iran Charges Imprisoned American Journalist With Spying

TEHRAN, April 8 -- Roxana Saberi, an American freelance journalist who has been in Iranian custody since January, has been charged with spying, Tehran's deputy prosecutor, Hassan Haddad, said Wednesday, according to the ISNA news agency.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/08/AR2009040801504.html

posted 32 weeks ago

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