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When will Mexico collapse?

Background: Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Category Editor Clarification: According to an article in the El Paso Times (http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354), the Mexican government, its politicians, its police, and its judicial infrastructure are under sustained assault by drug cartels and criminal gangs. Combined with declining petroleum revenues and a tightening in the flow of remittance dollars--money earned in America and sent back to Mexico--there's a slight possibility that Mexico could, indeed, collapse, as defined by the following criteria:

-A loss of territorial control
-An inability to provide public services
-Refugees and internally displaced people fleeing the country en masse
-Criminalization of the state
-Sharp economic decline
-Incapacity to interact as a full member of the international community

This market, then, will settle as 'Yes' if all of the above become true as stated by major mainstream media outlets.

 
Forecast history %
Before the end of 2009
7%
Before the end of 2010
11%
Before the end of 2011
10%
Before the end of 2012
7%
Before the end of 2013
7%
Not before suspend date
60%
Question suspends in 3 years

Suspend date: Tue 31st Dec 2013 11:59pm PST (3 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Before the end of 2009: 10%, Before the end of 2010: 15%, Before the end of 2011: 15%, Before the end of 2012: 10%, Before the end of 2013: 10%, Not before suspend date: 40%

Action history:

Created Sun 1st Mar 2009 3:04pm PST by morgie

Suspend date: Tue 31st Dec 2013 11:59pm PST (3 years to go) details

 

Predictions (96)

5 weeks ago
joffi predicted Not before suspend date (H$250 at 60%)
8 weeks ago
dnicolo1 predicted Not before suspend date (H$50 at 59%)
9 weeks ago
harlech predicted Not before suspend date (H$100 at 58%)
9 weeks ago
neopugg predicted Not before suspend date (H$100 at 58%)
13 weeks ago
davesov predicted Not before suspend date (H$100 at 58%)

Comments (12)

Criteria for Mexico's collapse?
posted 1 year ago
  2 morgie
There seems to be a lot of debate about the criteria of a Mexico collapse. As I was creating the question, I decided to let the main stream media be the deciding factor. If the media reports that Mexico has collapsed, I feel that should settle the question.
posted 1 year ago
  3 sqlman[Admin]
As stated in the Category Editor Clarification:

According to an article in the El Paso Times (http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354), the Mexican government, its politicians, its police, and its judicial infrastructure are under sustained assault by drug cartels and criminal gangs. Combined with declining petroleum revenues and a tightening in the flow of remittance dollars--money earned in America and sent back to Mexico--there's a slight possibility that Mexico could, indeed, collapse, as defined by the following criteria:

-A loss of territorial control
-An inability to provide public services
-Refugees and internally displaced people fleeing the country en masse
-Criminalization of the state
-Sharp economic decline
-Incapacity to interact as a full member of the international community

This market, then, will settle as 'Yes' if all of the above become true as stated by major mainstream media outlets.
posted 1 year ago
It's looking more and more likely.
posted 1 year ago
  5 nyharel
"This market, then, will settle as 'Yes' if all of the above become true as stated by major mainstream media outlets.".
*All* of the above? If all of them happen except one, this will not be a collapse?
posted 37 weeks ago
  6 sqlman[Admin]
That's correct; all of thiose items must take place as stated by one (or more) MSM sources.
posted 37 weeks ago
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/167142/13-killed-including-9-yr-old-in-Mexican-violence
MEXICO CITY — A shootout between rival drug gangs and police left two dead and one wounded Friday in the western state of Michoacan, part of a wave of violence that claimed the lives of at least 13 people across Mexico.

The early morning shootout tore through an upscale neighborhood in the state capital of Morelia. Hundreds of police swarmed the area, killing one gunman who tried to resist capture, state police said.

Another man was found dead after the shootout, presumably a drug gang member killed while fighting a rival gang, police said. A Honduran woman was wounded in the confrontation.

Hundreds of rounds were fired and several grenades thrown in the three-way shootout, which lasted more than three hours and ended at dawn.
[More at the link...]
posted 36 weeks ago
  9 tlwinslow
The age-old pesky U.S.-Mexico border problem has taxed the resources of both countries, led to long lists of injustices, and appears to be heading only for worse troubles in the future. Guess what? The border problem can never be solved. Why? Because the border IS the problem! It's time for a paradigm change.

Never fear, a satisfying, comprehensive solution is within reach: the Megamerge Dissolution Solution. Simply dissolve the border along with the failed Mexican government, and megamerge the two countries under U.S. law, with mass free 2-way migration eventually equalizing the development and opportunities permanently, with justice and without racism, and without threatening U.S. sovereignty or basic principles.

Google "Megamerge Dissolution Solution" to read my proposal.
posted 33 weeks ago
  10 kruijs[Power User]
in business, one would say "hostile takeover", probably.
But maybe the Mexican people should be dissolved in that act too, just to be sure that justice and racism along with US sovereignty and basic principles aren't endangered.
posted 9 weeks ago
That is ridiculous... (maybe it was intended to be a joke)

Mexicans tend to be proud of Mexico, and they will solve their own problems. Most who come up here to work are only here for the opportunity, but their hearts are in Mexico, sending their money back whenever they can to relatives down there, and so forth.

While they are in the US there are a lot of unscrupulous people who try to take advantage of the situation to push their own agenda: "Immigrants Without Borders”, “Somos America” y "La Raza" are some of the latter. Even popular Spanish radio talk shows often fall in step with this, many times featuring latino immigration lawyers (who last year were known to brazenly encourage the "undocumented workers" to vote for the undocumented president!)

In northern Mexico, the more dominant political part "PAN" has pro-American sympathies, and I have talked to a fair number of people in Northern Mexico who say they would entertain the idea of uniting with the United States, should it become a viable option. It is my experience that this is not the case further south. On the other hand, the aforementioned "La Raza" publishes a map where they claim large parts of the southwestern United States for Mexico!

One of the major contributions to Mexican unrest is the drug trafficking. Much of the money made in this "trade" is from the United States. If the two countries would work together to build the fence and patrol it sufficiently, it would slow down the flow of money to these groups and perhaps give the Mexican government a very real break in the string of violence and unrest. Ideally the fence and some form of efficient "guest worker program" would work together to allow the hard working honest laborers access to the employment they seek, while keeping out the criminal elements.

I have high hopes for Mexico. It is a lot of work to turn things around, but they have the will & the pride in their country. Colombia did it; Mexico can!
posted 8 weeks ago
Two Drug Slayings in Mexico Rock U.S. Consulate
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/15/world/americas/15juarez.html?pagewanted=all
LA UNIÓN, Mexico — Gunmen believed to be linked to drug traffickers shot a pregnant American consulate worker and her husband to death in the violence-racked border town of Ciudad Juárez over the weekend, leaving their baby wailing in the back seat of their car, the authorities said Sunday. The gunmen also killed the husband of another consular employee and wounded his two young children.

The shootings took place minutes apart and appeared to be the first deadly attacks on American officials and their families by Mexico’s powerful drug organizations, provoking an angry reaction from the White House.

...

[More at the link...]
posted 6 days ago

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