pixelpaws
Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average experience a Great Depression like drop?
Looks liked we've avoid the Great Depression Redux so far...market has rallied back
Suspending and settling as of the close of business on May 9, when the Dow closed higher than 8511
Background:
Since it hit a high of 14,279.96 on October 5, 2007, the DJIA has dropped by more than half. As of March 2, it's value of 6,763.29 represents a drop of 52.6%. During the depression, over the same number of trading days, the Dow fell from 381.17 to 172.36, a loss of 54.7%. It finally bottomed out at a mere 42.22, a plunge of 88.9%.
Will the DJIA experience the same sort of catastrophic drop as it did in the early 1930s or will we see the bear market return without hitting rock bottom?
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. The DJIA should rise at least 30% from its low before this question settles, to counter any possible bear market rally.
| Yes, the Dow falls by 88.9% to 1,582 or below |
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| Dow falls 85 to 88.9% (2,142) |
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| Dow falls 80 to 85% (2,856) |
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| Dow falls 75 to 80% (3,570) |
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| Dow falls 70 to 75% (4,284) |
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| Dow falls 65 to 70% (4,998) |
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| Dow falls 60 to 65% (5,712) |
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| Dow falls 55 to 60% (6,425) |
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| Dow retains 55% of its record high (above 6,425) |
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- Activity: H$57,875 |
- Predictions: 216 |
Comments: 9
Suspend date: Fri 13th Mar 2015 11:59pm PST (5 years to go)
Settlement date: Sun 31st May 4am PST
Initial likelihoods: Yes, the Dow falls by 88.9% to 1,582 or below: 1%, Dow falls 85 to 88.9% (2,142): 3%, Dow falls 80 to 85% (2,856): 5%, Dow falls 75 to 80% (3,570): 8%, Dow falls 70 to 75% (4,284): 12%, Dow falls 65 to 70% (4,998): 15%, Dow falls 60 to 65% (5,712): 20%, Dow falls 55 to 60% (6,425): 26%, Dow retains 55% of its record high (above 6,425): 10%
Action history:
pixelpaws 
frogchop
: From my calculation, the Dow hit a low of 6,547 on March 9. The market would need to rise to 8,511 to be up 30% from that bottom and meet the settlement criteria. Friday it closed at 8574. You can check my math, but I think the criteria for settlement has been met. 
tuff_sledding![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: The 30% threshold has been exceeded. The terms of settlement have been reached. The Dow has retained 55% of its value and has rallied over 30% from the bottom. Time to settle!
Fridays close of 8575 is 2028 points above the trough of 6547, which is 30.98% above the bottom. Thank you.
onedave: The DJIA closed at 8574.65 on Friday. According to the settlement requests, this market should settle now. (market suspended) tuff_sledding: I don't mean to be a pain, but the settlement criteria have been met long ago. I provided that information previously. Is there a reason this has not settled??? tuff_sledding: This has been suspended but not settled for almost a month! Is there a reason for this? The criteria were clear, I don't understand what the holdup is.
Could we please settle this???
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Looks liked we've avoid the Great Depression Redux so far...market has rallied back
Suspending and settling as of the close of business on May 9, when the Dow closed higher than 8511
Suspend date: Fri 13th Mar 2015 11:59pm PST (5 years to go)
Settlement date: Sun 31st May 4am PST details 
Get widget!Predictions (216)
predicted Dow retains 55% of its record high (above 6,425) (H$50 at 94%)
neverumindus
predicted Dow retains 55% of its record high (above 6,425) (H$2,000 at 92%)
rogerkni
predicted Dow falls 55 to 60% (6,425) (H$300 at 10%)Comments (9)
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