Created Mon 2nd Mar 6:43pm PST by 
carnacthemagnificent
carnacthemagnificent 
Weather - When will the first big snowfall arrive in Central Park, NYC (Fall 2009-Spring 2010)?
Background: Sometimes it snows a lot in New York City in the winter. Sometimes it doesn't.
For the purposes of this question, a "big" snowfall will be defined as 6" or more accumulated in any twenty-four hour period. Settlement date will be the beginning of the snowfall (For example a snowfall reported by the NWS as occurring Dec 31-Jan 1 will be settled as Dec 31).
If there is no accumulation of snow of 6" or more in any 24 hour period before May 31, 2010, this question settles as "Other."
See this blog for compiled historical weather data: http://www.anderoid.com/~seander/archives/000054.html
See the National Weather Service website for observational info:
http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx
Historical weather extremes, Central Park
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/extremes.html
For the purposes of this question, a "big" snowfall will be defined as 6" or more accumulated in any twenty-four hour period. Settlement date will be the beginning of the snowfall (For example a snowfall reported by the NWS as occurring Dec 31-Jan 1 will be settled as Dec 31).
If there is no accumulation of snow of 6" or more in any 24 hour period before May 31, 2010, this question settles as "Other."
See this blog for compiled historical weather data: http://www.anderoid.com/~seander/archives/000054.html
See the National Weather Service website for observational info:
http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx
Historical weather extremes, Central Park
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/extremes.html
Settlement details:As reported by the National Weather Service.
Forecast history %
| Before December 1, 2009 |
| ||||
| December 1, 2009 - December 15, 2009 |
| ||||
| December 16, 2009 - December 31, 2009 |
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| January 1, 2010 - January 15, 2010 |
| ||||
| January 16, 2010 - January 31, 2010 |
| ||||
| February 1, 2010 - February 14, 2010 |
| ||||
| February 15, 2010 - February 28, 2010 |
| ||||
| March 1, 2010 - March 31, 2010 |
| ||||
| April 1, 2010 - May 31, 2010 |
| ||||
| Other |
|
Question suspends in 27 weeks
- Activity: H$813 |
- Predictions: 11 |
Comments: 0
Suspend date: Mon 31st May 2010 11:59pm PST (27 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Before December 1, 2009: 1%, December 1, 2009 - December 15, 2009: 2%, December 16, 2009 - December 31, 2009: 5%, January 1, 2010 - January 15, 2010: 15%, January 16, 2010 - January 31, 2010: 22%, February 1, 2010 - February 14, 2010: 22%, February 15, 2010 - February 28, 2010: 15%, March 1, 2010 - March 31, 2010: 8%, April 1, 2010 - May 31, 2010: 2%, Other: 8%
Action history:
Created Mon 2nd Mar 6:43pm PST by carnacthemagnificent
carnacthemagnificent 
Suspend date: Mon 31st May 2010 11:59pm PST (27 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (11)
bobyn42
predicted February 15, 2010 - February 28, 2010 (H$20 at 14%)
bones
predicted December 16, 2009 - December 31, 2009 (H$13 at 7%)
frogchop
predicted December 16, 2009 - December 31, 2009 (H$100 at 6%)Comments (0)
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