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Which candidate will win the Republican nomination in the 2012 election?

Background: The Republican field has never been more wide open. Will an unknown develop in the next few years or will one of the recycled candidates listed below be chosen.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Mitt Romney
13%
Mike Huckabee
11%
Bobby Jindal
1%
Ron Paul
3%
Sarah Palin
11%
Tim Pawlenty
14%
Newt Gingrich
2%
Mark Sanford
0%
Dick Cheney
0%
Other Candidate not listed
44%
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Thu 1st Mar 2012 3:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Mitt Romney: 22%, Mike Huckabee: 24%, Bobby Jindal: 22%, Ron Paul: 8%, Sarah Palin: 7%, Tim Pawlenty: 3%, Newt Gingrich: 2%, Mark Sanford: 4%, Dick Cheney: 1%, Other Candidate not listed: 7%

Action history:

Suspend date: Thu 1st Mar 2012 3:59pm PST (1 year to go) details

 

Predictions (244)

4 weeks ago
phred predicted Other Candidate not listed (H$250 at 38%)
4 weeks ago
dogchow_ predicted Other Candidate not listed (H$150 at 39%)
4 weeks ago
phred predicted Other Candidate not listed (H$250 at 36%)
5 weeks ago
phred predicted Other Candidate not listed (H$250 at 33%)
5 weeks ago
phred predicted Other Candidate not listed (H$250 at 27%)

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