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When will Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor go into operation?

Background:

Coming soon to an unstable Middle Eastern state near you!

Last week, Iran staged a dummy (non-nuclear) run of its long-delayed Bushehr reactor. The reactor, built with Russian help, was tested with virtual fuel consisting of lead, which officials said was designed to simulate the enriched uranium needed to make it fully functional. The 1000-megawatt reactor is not expected to come into proper operation until later this year.

Work on Bushehr originally started 34 years ago, during the reign of the shah with the help of the German contractor Siemens. It was suspended shortly after the 1979 Islamic revolution, when Siemens claimed it had not been paid. The mothballed plant sustained bomb damage during the 1980-88 war between Iran and Iraq, when much of its equipment was looted.

The symbolism of the event dismayed the US and other western powers who suspect Iran's nuclear energy program is merely a front for building an atomic weapon rather than designed to produce electricity, as Tehran insists. (Western concern has focused on Iran's uranium enrichment facility at Natanz rather than Bushehr, whose construction has depended on help from Russia, which has also expressed fears about the Iranian nuclear program.)

Last week's test was attended by Russian nuclear officials, including the head of Moscow's nuclear agency, Sergei Kiriyenko. Russia insists that the Bushehr plant is purely civilian and cannot be used to make bombs. However, Russian involvement in the £700m-project has been problematic because of the country's status as a permanent member of the UN security council, which has imposed three rounds of sanctions on Iran because of its failure to suspend uranium enrichment.

Iran makes first test-run of Bushehr nuclear reactor
Iran's Nuclear Program: The Risk of the 'Known Unknown'
Obama seeks Russian help on Iran but denies deal

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
March or April, 2009
0%
May or June, 2009
1%
July or August, 2009
1%
September or October, 2009
1%
November or December, 2009
4%
2010 or later / never
93%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: March or April, 2009: 10%, May or June, 2009: 15%, July or August, 2009: 15%, September or October, 2009: 20%, November or December, 2009: 20%, 2010 or later / never: 20%

Action history:

Created Wed 4th Mar 9:09am PST by sqlman[Admin]
Changed Settlement info Wed 4th Mar 9:37am PST by sqlman[Admin]: ...   As reported by a major
Changed Description Thu 5th Mar 3:59am PST by sqlman[Admin]: ... <div style="width:312px;border: 3px double rgb(0,

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (34)

11 weeks ago
linda415 predicted 2010 or later / never (H$100 at 33%)
20 weeks ago
kolia39 predicted November or December, 2009 (H$100 at 15%)
20 weeks ago
kolia39 predicted September or October, 2009 (H$100 at 16%)
20 weeks ago
kolia39 predicted July or August, 2009 (H$100 at 17%)
21 weeks ago
yurdinde predicted 2010 or later / never (H$5 at 35%)

Comments (1)

Are you kidding? Israel is going to bomb the tar out of that country over this. They've been buying those precious little mini nukes (that I think are illegal) in preparation of this.
posted 37 weeks ago

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