Created Wed 4th Mar 2009 5:22pm PST by

How much will consumer debt change in 2009?

Settled as 2.51 - 2.6 trillion

Data from http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-2.pdf showed the 3Q amount of consumer debt to be 2.5194 trillion dollars

Background:

Background: US households held over 2.6 Trillion dollars at the end of Q3 in 2008. What will be the level of consumer debt at the end of Q3 2009?

Settlement details:As reported by Federal reserve flow of funds data.
Q3 results released in December.
<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-2.pdf">http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-2.pdf<;/a>

Forecast history %

2.4 trillion or less

14%

2.41 - 2.5 trillion

28%

2.51 - 2.6 trillion

30%

2.61 - 2.7 trillion

17%

2.71 - 2.8 trillion

more than 2.8 trillion

Settled as 2.51 - 2.6 trillion on Sat 30th Jan 10:42am PST

Activity: H$18,973
Predictions: 66
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 30th Jan 10:42am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 2.4 trillion or less: 20%, 2.41 - 2.5 trillion: 40%, 2.51 - 2.6 trillion: 20%, 2.61 - 2.7 trillion: 10%, 2.71 - 2.8 trillion: 5%, more than 2.8 trillion: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 4th Mar 2009 5:22pm PST by

snail

Suspended Mon 30th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as '2.51 - 2.6 trillion' Sat 30th Jan 10:42am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Data from http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-2.pdf showed the 3Q amount of consumer debt to be 2.5194 trillion dollars

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Predictions (66)

15 weeks ago

roofrabbit Level 12, Guru (H$27,022)

predicted 2.71 - 2.8 trillion (H$20 at 4%)

19 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,710,064)

predicted 2.51 - 2.6 trillion (H$250 at 28%)

26 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,710,064)

predicted 2.41 - 2.5 trillion (H$500 at 26%)

26 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,710,064)

predicted 2.41 - 2.5 trillion (H$100 at 21%)

38 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,710,064)

predicted 2.4 trillion or less (H$250 at 38%)

Comments (1)

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,818,411)

In Q2 2008 it was 2.6073 which is more than 2.6 and less than 2.61. I hope this won't happen for Q3 2009.
Now it is 2.5733 at end of Q1 2009.

posted 37 weeks ago

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