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Will 2009 auto sales beat 2008 auto sales?

Background: http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2009-03-03-auto-sales-february_N.htm

"Automakers sold barely more than half as many new cars and trucks in February as they did a year ago, as potential buyers worried about more basic concerns — such as whether they'd have jobs or be able to pay the mortgage.

The February auto sales rate, if stretched over a whole year, would amount to just 9.1 million new vehicle sales, the worst annual rate since December 1981, according to sales tracker Autodata. And it's worse than January's grim annual rate of 9.6 million, which many hoped was rock bottom.

Car companies sold 13.2 million new vehicles in the U.S. in 2008, and that low rate forced General Motors and Chrysler to borrow a combined $17.4 billion from the government to stay afloat."



If 2009 new car sales mirror February 2009 new car sales, it looks like there will be only 9.1 million new cars sold in the US in 2009. In 2008 there were 13.2 million new car sales. It looks like if the Big Three wise up and offer incentives similar to Hyundai and Kia, sales could turn around later this year.

This market settles as Yes if 2009 total sales exceed 13.2 million. The market will settle as No if 2009 total new car sales tie OR are less than 13.2 million. Will the recession bring good deals or further losses?

Market will remain suspended until 2009 sales confirmed.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
8%
No
92%
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 16th Dec 9am PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Wed 4th Mar 6:46pm PST by tarpash

Suspend date: Wed 16th Dec 9am PST (3 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (31)

3 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$2,000 at 83%)
3 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$1,500 at 81%)
3 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$1,000 at 80%)
7 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$1,000 at 80%)
7 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$2,000 at 78%)

Comments (4)

Just to clarify: Are we talking about U.S. brands only (Ford, Chrysler, GM and their models)?
posted 29 weeks ago
  2 tarpash
No, total U.S. auto sales. Sorry for the confusion.
posted 25 weeks ago
Ford market share grows in the US
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8080062.stm
Ford, the only one of the "Big Three" US carmakers not to have gone bankrupt, has reported its share of the US market in May was its highest since 2006.

Its sales of 155,954 vehicles in May were down 24% from the same month last year, but up 20% from April.

On the day after filing for bankruptcy, GM announced May sales were down 30% from a year ago but up 11% from April.

Chrysler, which filed for bankruptcy on 30 April, saw its sales in the US fall 47% from May 2008 to 79,010.

Many of Chrysler's sales were a result of heavy discounting because 789 dealers are due to stop selling the company's cars next week.

GM sold 191,875 cars and light trucks during the month, with the worst performance coming from the brands it plans to get rid of: Pontiac, Hummer, Saturn and Saab.

Earlier in the day it said it had reached a tentative agreement to sell Hummer, but did not identify the buyer or the value of the agreement.

'Future is now'

Ford has decided to increase production to take advantage of the problems facing General Motors and Chrysler.

It will make an extra 10,000 vehicles in the April to June quarter and 42,000 more than were planned for the following quarter.

"At Ford, the future is now," said Ford's Ken Czubay.
[more at the link...]
posted 24 weeks ago
Go ford!
posted 23 weeks ago

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