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When will the expelled aid groups be allowed to continue their activities in Sudan?
At the time of the article below, Omar al-Bashir had not yet been arrested, but Sudan had approved the applications of four aid groups that were expelled (CARE, Save the Children, Mercy Corps., and PADCO). The remaining 13 hadn't yet applied, but were welcome to.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/06/11/sudan.aid/index.html
updated 10:00 p.m. EDT, Thu June 11, 2009
Background:
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the action "represents a serious setback to lifesaving operations in Darfur" and urged Sudan to reverse its decision, U.N. deputy spokeswoman Marie Okabe said.
Aid groups protested, saying they had no connection to the court and that their absence could lead to a crisis for hundreds of thousands of war-weary Sudanese who need such basics as shelter, food and clean water.
Sudan's order was announced after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for President Omar al-Bashir on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ilNb6rQHo21sTKt0tmilR4UGRNTwD96NF8L80
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. suspend date fixed. Settlement as soon as the expel is withdrawn and the aid groups are allowed to return to Sudan - or President Omar al-Bashir is arrested, whichever comes first. If the aid groups are not allowed to return to Sudan by the end of March 2010 and President Omar al-Bashir is not arrested, the question settles 'Not before 1st April 2010'.
- "President Omar al-Bashir is not arrested first"
Settles if the expel is withdrawn before April 1st, 2010, and the President has not been arrested as the expel is withdrawn.
- "President Omar al-Bashir is arrested first"
Settles if the President is arrested before April 1st 2010 and the expel has not been withdrawn as the President is arrested.
- "Not before April1st 2010"
Settles if the expel has not been withdrawn before April 1st, 2010 and the President has not been arrested before April 1st, 2010
The question might be void whenever a situation occurs which is not covered by one of these options.
| President Omar al-Bashir is not arrested first |
| |||
| President Omar al-Bashir is arrested first |
| |||
| Not before April1st 2010 |
|
- Activity: H$20,048 |
- Predictions: 111 |
Comments: 0
Suspend date: Wed 31st Mar 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)
Settlement date: Sat 28th Nov 2009 5:48am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 11th Jun 2009 6am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: President Omar al-Bashir is not arrested first: 50%, President Omar al-Bashir is arrested first: 20%, Not before April1st 2010: 30%
Action history:
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: At the time of the article below, Omar al-Bashir had not yet been arrested, but Sudan had approved the applications of four aid groups that were expelled (CARE, Save the Children, Mercy Corps., and PADCO). The remaining 13 hadn't yet applied, but were welcome to.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/06/11/sudan.aid/index.html
updated 10:00 p.m. EDT, Thu June 11, 2009
Suspend date: Wed 31st Mar 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)
Settlement date: Sat 28th Nov 2009 5:48am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 11th Jun 2009 6am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (111)
zeebac
predicted Not before April1st 2010 (H$20 at 16%)
charlesf
predicted Not before April1st 2010 (H$10 at 16%)
undercontrol
predicted President Omar al-Bashir is not arrested first (H$20 at 49%)Comments (0)
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