Created Thu 5th Mar 2009 12:47pm PST by

How far will GDP drop in 2009?

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Background:

Background: Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.
How much will real GDP decrease in 2009?

Settlement details:As released by BEA. Must be final number, which usually comes out some time in March.

Forecast history %

GDP will actually increase

22%

decrease by 0 - 1.99%

24%

decrease by 2 - 3.99%

49%

decrease by 4 - 5.99%

decrease by over 6%

Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Activity: H$38,573
Predictions: 94
Comments: 6

Suspend date: Mon 1st Mar 3:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: GDP will actually increase: 20%, decrease by 0 - 1.99%: 20%, decrease by 2 - 3.99%: 40%, decrease by 4 - 5.99%: 19%, decrease by over 6%: 1%

Action history:

Created Thu 5th Mar 2009 12:47pm PST by

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Predictions (94)

2 weeks ago

jank

predicted decrease by 0 - 1.99% (H$100 at 23%)

2 weeks ago

pics4d Level 15, Seer (H$393,903)

predicted decrease by 0 - 1.99% (H$500 at 18%)

2 weeks ago

sailfurther Level 7, Pro (H$4,451)

predicted decrease by 0 - 1.99% (H$20 at 14%)

2 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted decrease by 2 - 3.99% (H$1,000 at 50%)

2 weeks ago

vpmraika Level 6, Player (H$2,407)

predicted decrease by 2 - 3.99% (H$300 at 44%)

Comments (6)

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Please clarify the question. My interpretation is that it asks for the year- to- date GDP change from the year ago number. In other words Q4 08 to Q4 09. Is that correct? Thanks.

posted 1 year ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,716,328)

I agree, this market need clarification. Are we talking current dollar real GDP from peak (Q3 08, $14.412 trillion), current dollar real GDP Q4 08 ($14.2 trillion) to Q4 09, or are we talking peak to valley (say the bottom was Q2 or Q3, but a big Q4 brought the percent change up)?

posted 50 weeks ago

curios

HAVE faith oh ye that enters here for the GDP be upon ye (Miss quote) but it fits the q

posted 50 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

My way of looking at it is that it refers to the year's drop in GDP, which would compare the ending figure for 2008 (4q) to the ending figure of 2009 (4q)

posted 34 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

thanks - that helps!

posted 34 weeks ago

dragon01 Level 14, Prophet (H$151,887)

The 'background' info uses the term "annual rate" and the 'settlement details' indicates that the final number "usually comes out some time in March". I would then have to surmise that the question refers to the rate as of Dec 31,2009 (which should be forthcoming next Mar (2010). It can't be for a month to month comparison without stating which month we would be expected to 'guess' on. My interpretation anyway. :-)

posted 32 weeks ago

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