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What will be the 'main' cause of the plane crash outside of San Diego March 6th?

Background: OCEANSIDE, Calif. — An airplane crashed Friday off the Southern California coast, and rescue boats have yet to find survivors or bodies, the Coast Guard said.

A civilian vessel reported seeing the plane hit the water on Friday afternoon about 25 miles off the coast, halfway between Oceanside and San Clemente Island. Searchers found aluminum debris and an oil slick, Coast Guard Lt. Josh Nelson said.

Three rescue boats will search for survivors through early Saturday morning and a helicopter will be sent out after sunrise.

Federal Aviation Administration officials believe the plane took off from San Diego's Montgomery Field _ a popular site for small aircraft _ but were still trying to confirm, Nelson said. He said there were no reports of overdue or missing aircraft.

It was not immediately clear how many people were aboard the downed plane.

Oceanside is about 35 miles north of San Diego.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Weather related
6%
Mechanical problem
13%
Human Error
8%
Sabotage
6%
Other Reason or No News by suspend date
67%
Question suspends in 14 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 5th Mar 2010 11:59pm PST (14 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Weather related: 20%, Mechanical problem: 20%, Human Error: 20%, Sabotage: 20%, Other Reason or No News by suspend date: 20%

Action history:

Created Fri 6th Mar 10:52pm PST by conspiracy2riot

Suspend date: Fri 5th Mar 2010 11:59pm PST (14 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (38)

28 weeks ago
mistert predicted Mechanical problem (H$100 at 14%)
33 weeks ago
fourthestate predicted Mechanical problem (H$5 at 13%)
34 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Other Reason or No News by suspend date (H$500 at 66%)
34 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Other Reason or No News by suspend date (H$500 at 65%)
36 weeks ago
jono predicted Mechanical problem (H$20 at 17%)

Comments (14)

I assume that if there is no cause identified, it settles as "something else"? Chances are, they will never recover the flight recorder and apparently have no record of a distress call, no reports of bad weather....
posted 37 weeks ago
I caught this just before I went to bed last night and I've just awoken so I need to see what else has been learned since.

But yeah, tuff, 'something else' covers everything else including no cause determined.
posted 36 weeks ago
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/mar/06/bn06plane195831/?metro

They're backing off the statement the plane originated from Montgomery Field. Still no signs of life or even much of a plane.
posted 36 weeks ago
  4 sqlman[Admin]
If, as it appears, it was a private plane, it almost certainly had no flight data recorder of voice cockpit recorder. If the plane disintegrated in a high-speed impact, it's unlikely the cause will ever be known; if there was no flight plan filed--not a requirement--it's even more unlikely. So...does 'some other cause' include never finding out?
posted 36 weeks ago
You can get more info here. KGTV does a pretty good job of following up on their stories.
http://www.10news.com/news/18875330/detail.html
posted 36 weeks ago
@sqlman, 'Something Else' would include all other scenario's, but I have flagged to add language to further clarify that.

man, i'm batting close to 100 on missing tiny, little words that neaten things up lately. i fear i suffer from 'restless publish'. if only i knew a kid on that ridlin or aderal stuff....
posted 36 weeks ago
@buckeye, thanks for that link...love having access to instant info & updates.
posted 36 weeks ago
If the 71 year old pilot had a heart attack how would that settle? Yea, I know that they would have to recover the body first, but say they do, is that HUMAN ERROR or SOMETHING ELSE?
posted 36 weeks ago
  9 frogchop
It was a rental plane. He was 71. i'm guessing suicide.
posted 36 weeks ago
all of those are 'something else'. my advice is bet big on something else.

man, i just figured it was 'my time' to get in on creating a plane crash q. so what happens? i get a mystery plane that has no flight plan, no data recorder and is probably lost at sea, with a old, possibly sick or suicidal pilot. jeez, am i missing anything here?

that'll teach me about copying tisha & sqlman's options.
posted 36 weeks ago
  11 mork[Power User]
What if he had a heart attack because he forgot to take his medication? Human Error? (just kidding)
posted 36 weeks ago
what if he sabotaged the plane, unexpectedly hit some bad weather, effed up and forgot some basic flying skills then discovered something mechanically wrong with the plane causing him to freak and stroke out and crash? cuz that's like a 'everything above plus some' option...and yes, i somehow missed that one.
posted 36 weeks ago
  13 buckeyetom
There was another crash in San Diego County involving the same type of plane that the 71 year old was flying. I wonder if there's a common thread here?

The single-engine Cessna 172 was being flown by Stone Froberg, of San Diego, who was believed to be the only occupant of the lane.
http://www.10news.com/news/18875330/detail.html

The Cessna 172 was flying from John Wayne Airport in Orange County to Montgomery Field in San Diego.
http://www.10news.com/news/18880476/detail.html
posted 36 weeks ago
  14 ryanj
Hmm... Just put in "Other Reason or No News by suspend date" I think that should settle the problems with the original language.

Regards,
Ryan
posted 36 weeks ago

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