Created Mon 9th Mar 12:05am PST by

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,221)

Where will Osama bin Laden be found?

Background: This question will resolve based on wherever Osama bin Laden is found, and the settlement date will be pushed back until such a finding take place. Being "found" can mean being captured in a location, being confirmed to have died there, or having a sighting judged to be reliable enough to be described as "confirmed" by the mainstream media.

If something strange happens that would prevent the question from being resolved (e.g. Bin Laden's existence is eliminated by a time-traveling Albert Einstein), the question will be voided. Barring that, the question would resolve based on the first list entry which applies; for example, if he is found in the Kurram region it would resolve as that option, even though Kurram is located in FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), which is in turn part of Pakistan, which is located in the USCENTCOM AOR.

Some useful maps:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NWFP_FATA.svg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Unified_Combatant_Commands_map.png (USAFRICOM and USCENTCOM AORs are options because they're easy ways to unambiguously delineate large regions)

These pages provide some useful background info for why the following location options were chosen:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location_of_Osama_bin_Laden
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/2009/02/where-in-the-wo.html
http://web.mit.edu/mitir/2009/online/finding-bin-laden.pdf

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Category Editor Clarification: Just to be sure, option #5 (anywhere in the ocean, at least a mile from shore) is referring to offshore waters at least a mile from shore and not under the auspices of either USCENTCOM or USAFRICOM. In other words, if bin Laden is found on a boat in the open ocean anywhere in USCENTCOM or USAFRICOM, this will settle as either option #8 or option #9 as appropriate.

Forecast history %

Bajaur region, Pakistan

Kurram region, Pakistan

North/South Waziristan region, Pakistan

17%

elsewhere in FATA regions of Pakistan

10%

anywhere in the ocean, at least a mile from shore

elsewhere in Pakistan

10%

Afghanistan

11%

elsewhere in USCENTCOM AOR

elsewhere in USAFRICOM AOR

another world region not listed above

19%

Question suspends in 3 years

Activity: H$8,952
Predictions: 49
Comments: 7

Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 11:59pm PST (3 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Bajaur region, Pakistan: 11%, Kurram region, Pakistan: 11%, North/South Waziristan region, Pakistan : 11%, elsewhere in FATA regions of Pakistan: 11%, anywhere in the ocean, at least a mile from shore: 1%, elsewhere in Pakistan: 11%, Afghanistan: 11%, elsewhere in USCENTCOM AOR: 11%, elsewhere in USAFRICOM AOR: 11%, another world region not listed above: 11%

Action history:

Created Mon 9th Mar 12:05am PST by

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,221)

Changed Settlement info Fri 19th Jun 12:06pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... a major mainstream news source. Category Editor Clarification: Just to be sure, option #5 (anywhere in the ocean, at least a mile from shore) is referring to offshore waters at least a mile from shore and not under the auspices of either USCENTCOM or USAFRICOM. In other words, if bin Laden is found on a boat in the open ocean anywhere in USCENTCOM or USAFRICOM, this will settle as either option #8 or option #9 as appropriate.

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Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 11:59pm PST (3 years to go) details

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Predictions (49)

3 days ago

imperiumvita Level 1, Newbie (H$1,005)

predicted elsewhere in FATA regions of Pakistan (H$100 at 9%)

1 week ago

flamingo Level 11, Legend (H$18,125)

predicted another world region not listed above (H$200 at 18%)

1 week ago

flamingo Level 11, Legend (H$18,125)

predicted elsewhere in USAFRICOM AOR (H$150 at 7%)

1 week ago

flamingo Level 11, Legend (H$18,125)

predicted elsewhere in USCENTCOM AOR (H$200 at 7%)

1 week ago

flamingo Level 11, Legend (H$18,125)

predicted Afghanistan (H$200 at 11%)

Comments (7)

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,221)

In response to some questions, I want to remind everyone that the intent is for this question to resolve based on the first item on the prediction list which matches. For example, if Bin Laden is found more than a mile off the coast of Pakistan, or in the USAFRICOM AOR ocean far from shore, it would still resolve as the "anywhere in the ocean" option. Similarly, if Bin Laden is found on a lawn chair along the border with his head in the North Waziristan agency and his feet in the Kurram agency, the question would resolve as "Kurram" since that item is higher up on the list. If he's ambiguously found "on the border" between multiple regions the question should be suspended immediately, and if at least a month passes without the mainstream media being more specific about which of the bordering regions he was found in, then the top-most candidate will be picked.

posted 36 weeks ago

randburg Level 19, Uberdubber (H$4,994,013)

Another "forever" question...Will the last surviving hubdub member please turn off the light and lock the door. Amen.

posted 36 weeks ago

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,221)

Here's a blog post collecting some articles suggesting that the US is zero-ing in on Bin Laden in the Chitral region, part of Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province:

http://counterterrorismblog.org/2009/03/drones_buzz_pak_town_eyed_as_b.php

posted 35 weeks ago

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,221)

Btw, if Osama bin Laden is found in Chitral (or anywhere else in the NWFP) the question would resolve as "Elsewhere in Pakistan."

posted 35 weeks ago

candelario Level 9, Expert (H$9,904)

What if he's found on a ranch in Crawford Texas?

posted 33 weeks ago

theforce427 Level 12, Guru (H$26,082)

He's using my bathroom right now. Am I considered a reliable source?

posted 24 weeks ago

yurdinde Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,108)

What if hes found dead in cuba??

posted 22 weeks ago

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