Will there be any "school shootings" in 2009 in the U.S. resulting in 10 or more casualties?

I've gone over question creation with the creator on this market. Using the term casualties is allowed, as casualties does not imply death. Casualties can be seen as injuries or deaths but not just deaths therefore the market is allowed even with our death market ban up

Ok... so basically someone could create this question "Will So and so Die... and break a nail before july 14th" and that would be acceptable?

No, because that's still dependent on someone dying.

1) IF 10 or more casualties are involved in a shooting - what are the chances that nobody of these actually dies? Nearly zero, I assume, so we are asking for a shooting where most likely people are killed.
2) Why is this not a death pool? The text explicitly and exclusively refers to DEATHLY shootings, even focussing on the DEATHLIEST. The intent of the question creator is quite obvious.

Question to include universities and other learning institutions as defined by "school shootings" .
The Columbine High School massacre occurred on Tuesday, April 20, 1999, at Columbine High School in Columbine in unincorporated Jefferson County, Colorado, United States, near Denver and Littleton. Two students, Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold, embarked on a massacre, killing 12 students and a teacher, as well as wounding 23 others, before committing suicide. It is the fourth-deadliest school shooting in United States history, after the 1927 Bath School disaster, 2007 Virginia Tech massacre and the 1966 University of Texas massacre, and the deadliest for an American high school.
Here are others:

Amish school shooting Nickel Mines, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, United States October 2 2006 6 [deaths]

Virginia Tech massacre Blacksburg, Virginia, United States April 16 2007 33 [deaths]

Delaware State University shooting Dover, Delaware, United States September 21 2007 1 [deaths]

SuccessTech Academy shooting Cleveland, Ohio, United States October 10 2007 1 [deaths]

Louisiana Technical College shooting Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States February 8 2008 [3 deaths]

E.O. Green School shooting Oxnard, California, United States February 12 2008 1 [deaths]

Northern Illinois University shooting DeKalb, Illinois, United States February 14 2008 6 [deaths]

Central High School shooting Knoxville, Tennessee, United States August 21 2008 1 [deaths]

University of Central Arkansas shooting Conway, Arkansas, United States October 27 2008 2 [deaths]

Dillard High School shooting Fort Lauderdale, Florida, United States November 12 2008 1 [deaths]


In my understanding, this question is a death pool market which are banned by the Hubdub rules. Although it is not "dependent on someone dying", the question asks for a situation in which people surely die.

krujis, relax. they have a loophole. 'casualties' is not the same 'fatalities'.

semantics save the day (and the q).

not to mention, way more people, universally, are shot and live than shot and killed.

When did the 'death ban'commence and for what reason does it exist?

@buckojo - you might find the answer to your question somewhere in the 100 or so posts here:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Topic/Death_markets_now_banned_400

@kruijs - My understanding was that most school shootings actually had a number of people who were shot and injured that survived? I did a bit of research into it when I read 'We need to talk about Kevin' - really freaky but good book.

tisha,
can you recall how many school shootings with 10 or more casualties actually had not a single killing?

This morning's school shooting in Stuttgart, Germany left 16 dead and an unknown number of wounded...but that's not the US. :(

@tisha - thanks - about 150 posts i think. That one really ran the gammet; death, media, free speech,business pragmatism, argy bargy, diplomacy, banishment, return, and ... the healing process.

I love this site.

(although im not a hell of alot clearer on the techinical rules of death pooling - in any event they're not the most interesting q's to market)

oh yeah - and we need to talk about kevin is fantastic - On death pools though i agree with con2r, the phrasing used in a q can make enforcement of death pools really hard to manage in a totally consistent manner

@tisha, ryanj, others ...

i think we are missing one of the 'finer' issues with death pools.

"Is it possible that the death pool market could provoke someone into taking action?"

"Do we want a market betting on the lives (or injuries) on the children living in the US?" (on Nigel's website?)

Do we (once again) want to scare the school districts across America with the content on this site?
Do we want them (once again) "banning" HUBDUB.com access?

I say void, but that IS ryanj's call.

Whats the biggie about death questions?

Look, if you go to school, and use a computer there to google columbine im sure that you could read an article about it. i hope that the government understands that it is ridiculous to think that a website that probably isnt used by very many kids in school is going to inspire someone to shoot up there school. After all, when the bombs exploded on the twin towers, my son said that the school watched it all on tv and ive yet to see someone at that school try and duplicate that peice of news.

Yeah, dragon, that's a great analogy, because, you know, it's just as easy for a school kid bent on destruction to get his hands on the yoke of a fueled, loaded, and airborne 757 as it is for him to sneak one of his daddy's .38 Specials into school.

The fact is, death toll questions--even ones such as this disguised through semantic trickery--are capable of incentivizing the action being wagered upon. And the simpler the act, the more likely it is to be prompted by a market.

Yeah, kind of like this:

Youth Flies Small Plane Into Tampa Building, Dies
http://forums.speedguide.net/showthread.php?t=63104

A small plane flown by a lone 15-year-old student pilot crashed into an office high-rise in Tampa on Saturday after taking off from a nearby airport without clearance and then ignoring Coast Guard signals to land, officials said.

The pilot of the single-engine Cessna 172 was killed. But nobody else was hurt in an incident that -- with its image of an aircraft lodged high in an office building -- was a grim reminder of the Sept. 11 hijacked aircraft attacks on New York and Washington.

.... whose side are you on notable?

Well, call me crazy, but I wish they would let passengers arm themselves. Those terrorists probably not have even tried to hijack those planes and hit the towers, if they thought some passengers could be armed. They certainly would not have been successful.

It was not that long ago (30 years?) when nobody cared what you brought on the plane with you. Planes were not falling out of the sky back then... you could walk on the plane without taking your shoes off, and the old lady sitting in front of you might have even had (gasp) a nail clipper in her purse!

I see.. So your basically destroying the point im trying to make to better your own point... I see how it is...

hey ontheland - see the link at 7 above

Its possible to have ten or more casualities in a school type shooting in the usa, VERY possible. The definition of casuality is also loose.

In the Virginia Tech massacre Blacksburg, Virginia, United States April 16 2007, obviously some people passed away(God bless them) but there were 17 wounded people; 6 more were injured when they jumped from second-story windows to escape, clearly amounting to more than 10 casualties.

@notablenotices
NIce idea. just imagine, all those passengers trying to defend themselves whenever a hijacker reveals himself (or someone is just misunderstood) shooting around in a small panic crowded room.
a small room which is an overpressure capsule.