valornhonor
Which high flying Hubdubber will have 2nd best void ratio on HD 2nd anniversary?
Suspend date reached
Background:
This market is looking to anticipate which, among the Hubdubbers listed will have the next best (lowest) void ratio at 9:00am PST on 1/28/10.
Obviously this could swing if some of these folks create some markets at the last minute, that also settle successfully. Could this market be gamed? I suppose it's possible, but unlike other 'inside baseball' type markets this one doesn't just include some insiders, it's ONLY insiders, ok plus me who is no longer an "S".
I've ranked these contenders High to Low based on the number of markets that they've created during their tenure with HD.
bayoubear 94% 1,669 created, 71 voided
mrperfect 96% 543 created, 22 voided
jenniandboys 95% 393 created, 19 voided
destry 97% 254 created, 7 voided
valornhonor 65% 237 created, 127 voided
(obviously for me to game this and win I'd have to create hundreds of successfully, unvoided markets in the next 9 months, not too freakin' likely!)
kruijs 92% 208 created, 18 voided
infernal machine 92% 60 created, 5 voided
keyeshoveden 97% 33 created, 1 voided
newswrangler 84% 32 created, 6 voided
Happy Wagering!
In the event of a tie a calculation will be made to determine a more surgical ratio than just the listed whole numbers, for example... sdcharger is ACTUALLY not quite at 100%, but the 99.60% ratio will likely not be eclipsed by this field, a tie at the second decimal, like 98.55 and 98.55 will settle for the final option, any other outcome.
Happy wagering!
Settlement details:As reported by a HD stats on settlement date.
| keyeshoveden shoves it to the group |
| |||
| destry destroys the field |
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| mrperfect is even more so |
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| jenniandboys entertains us all |
| |||
| bayoubear gets bullish |
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| infernal machine infuriates |
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| kruijs kantankorously konfounds |
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| newswrangler corrals best ratio |
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| darkhorse valornhonor lambasted for gaming |
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| any other outcome... like I dunno... a tie? |
|
- Activity: H$54,857 |
- Predictions: 104 |
Comments: 20
Suspend date: Thu 28th Jan 8:59am PST
Initial likelihoods: keyeshoveden shoves it to the group: 20%, destry destroys the field : 15%, mrperfect is even more so: 10%, jenniandboys entertains us all: 10%, bayoubear gets bullish: 10%, infernal machine infuriates : 10%, kruijs kantankorously konfounds: 10%, newswrangler corrals best ratio: 10%, darkhorse valornhonor lambasted for gaming : 3%, any other outcome... like I dunno... a tie?: 2%
Action history:
valornhonor 
Suspend date: Thu 28th Jan 8:59am PST details 
Get widget!Predictions (104)
swamee
predicted keyeshoveden shoves it to the group (H$100 at 91%)
predicted keyeshoveden shoves it to the group (H$100 at 84%)
predicted mrperfect is even more so (H$20 at 3%)
bernardo
predicted bayoubear gets bullish (H$300 at 5%)Comments (20)
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Kidding!
On a more serious note, I have to say that I was surprised by those numbers. Kudos to all of the above (as well as to several others who weren't mentioned). In addition to all of the other responsibilities, they are able to contribute quality questions on a regular basis. That's what hubdub is all about. Wait...maybe the hokey pokey was what it was all about...hmmmm
Okay, back to scrutinizing Destry's questions... :)
Be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Actually no, please refer to the above, after Happy Wagering where I defined a tie as the whole numbers + two numbers following the decimal point: "In the event of a tie a calculation will be made to determine a more surgical ratio than just the listed whole numbers, for example... sdcharger is ACTUALLY not quite at 100%, but the 99.60% ratio will likely not be eclipsed by this field, a tie at the second decimal, like 98.55 and 98.55 will settle for the final option, any other outcome."
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Topic/New_feature_Question_creator_stats_on_profiles_453
http://www.hubdub.com/users/keyeshoveden
http://www.hubdub.com/users/mrperfkt
http://www.hubdub.com/users/destry
http://www.hubdub.com/users/jenniandboys
http://www.hubdub.com/users/bayoubear
http://www.hubdub.com/users/infernalmachine
http://www.hubdub.com/users/kruijs
http://www.hubdub.com/users/newswrangler
http://www.hubdub.com/users/orlin
other outcome is a tie (with two digits) or hubdub abandowing the Q stats
but I think it's not so clear.
keyeshoveden: 1,818% (1/55)
destry: 2,365% (7/296)
mrperfkt: 2,463% (25/1015)
@elly: in the background: This market is looking to anticipate which, among the Hubdubbers listed will have the next best (lowest) void ratio at 9:00am PST on 1/28/10.
and #13 of the author
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