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Will any Russian strategic bomber aircraft use Venezuelan airfields in 2009?

Settled as No

Doesn't appear to have happened...

Background:

Background:

Flying the not-so-friendly skies...

Venezuela has offered the use of its La Orchila island airfield for Russian strategic bombers on long-range flights, according to Russian strategic aviation general-major Anatoly Zhikharev.

Russia has long wanted to build relations with a Western hemisphere rival to the U.S. as part of an effort to counter United States influence in formerly Communist countries in eastern Europe and central Asia. Zhikharev says, "If certain political decisions are taken, it is possible." (Two Russian long-range bombers flew to Venezuela last year in a visit designed to show off Moscow's military strength and build ties with a foe of the United States.) Russia and Venezuela, both major oil prodcuing countries, have also been cooperating more closely on energy.

While Russia and the U.S. have promised to use the change of power in Washington to "press the reset button" on their relationship, Russia remains in fierce opposition to U.S. plans for an anti-missile system in Eastern Europe.

Venezuela offers bases for bombers (reuters)
Russia weighs Cuba, Venezuela bases (AFP)

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. NOTE: this market will suspend at the end of November, but will not settle until the end of December.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
6%
No
94%
Settled as No on Fri 1st Jan 8:59am PST

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 2009 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 8:59am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Nov 2009 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 14th Mar 2009 4:22am PST by sqlman[Admin]
Changed Question text Sat 14th Mar 2009 4:25am PST by sqlman[Admin]: ... Russian station strategic bomber aircraft in Venezuela in
Changed Description Sat 14th Mar 2009 4:25am PST by sqlman[Admin]: ... -missile system in Eastern Europe.<. <br/>
Changed Description Sat 14th Mar 2009 4:33am PST by sqlman[Admin]: show details
... <b>MOSCOW (Reuters)</b> - A Russian general said on Saturday Venezuela has offered the use ... bombers on long-range flights. <, according to Russian strategic aviation general-major Anatoly Zhikharev.<br/> <br/> Russia has beenlong keenwanted to build relations with a Western hemisphere rival to the UnitedU.S. as Statespart in the Western hemisphere inof an effort to counter U.S. United States influence in formerly Communist countries ... eastern Europe and central Asia. ". Zhikharev says, "If certain political decisions are taken, it is possible (for Russian bombers to use the base)," Interfax news agency quoted the head of Russian strategic aviation general-major Anatoly Zhikharev as saying. <br/> <br/> Zhikharev also said Russian bombers would be prepared to use four or five airfields on Cuba if the political leadership of the two countries allowed the use of Cuban bases. ." (Two Russian long-range bombers ... foe of the United States. <br/> <br/> .) Russia and Venezuela, both major oil producersprodcuing countries, arehave also co-operatingbeen cooperating more closely on energy. .<br/> <br/> While Russia and the United States U.S. have vowedpromised to use the change of ... reset button" on their relationship but , Russia remains in fierce opposition ... -missile system in Eastern Europe. <.<br/> /> <br/> <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE52D0K320090314">Venezuela offers bases for bombers</a><br/> <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jQgtPJKk5pgB8tQv9QEZ-Fz4B11Q">Russia weighs Cuba, Venezuela bases</a>
Changed Description Sat 14th Mar 2009 4:41am PST by sqlman[Admin]: show details
... Cuba, Venezuela bases</a> (AFP))<br/> <br/>
Settlement requested Wed 21st Oct 2009 4:30am PST by bernardo: Wednesday, September 10, 2008: Two Russian strategic bombers landed in Venezuela on Wednesday as part of military maneuvers, the government said [...] http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,420522,00.html
Suspended Mon 30th Nov 2009 7:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 10:26am PST by mridul: No major news agency has reported that any Russian strategic bomber used Venezuelan airfields in 2009.
Settled as 'No' Fri 1st Jan 8:59am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Doesn't appear to have happened...

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 2009 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 8:59am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Nov 2009 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (65)

15 weeks ago
omarmandujano predicted Yes (H$50 at 7%)
16 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted No (H$10,000 at 92%)
18 weeks ago
joffi predicted No (H$100 at 89%)
20 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted No (H$10,000 at 74%)
21 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted No (H$2,000 at 65%)

Comments (4)

  1 frank2877
How about "Will the bombers have a USAF escort to and from Venezuela" ? :-)
posted 1 year ago
  2 sqlman[Admin]
...whether the pilots want one--or know about it--or not. :)
posted 1 year ago
  3 bigken1
Hi sqlman,
Nice question. How do you get the big picture of the plane inside your background.
Also how did you photograph the plane... must have been scary..
Ken
posted 50 weeks ago
  4 bernardo
Sorry, I mixed up the years in my settlement request.. but has anyone read something about this topic recently?
posted 21 weeks ago

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