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Will Malcolm Turnbull be Opposition leader as at New Years Eve 2009?

Background: Peter Costello doesn't want the coalition leadership. Right? In any event, will the long knives come out for Mssr Turnbull, on or before 31 December 2009?

Question settles as a yes if someone other than Turnbull is the Australian Opposition leader on or before 31 December 2009.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
50%
No
50%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 29th Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 14th Mar 6:32am PST by buckojo

Suspend date: Tue 29th Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (6)

2 weeks ago
downunderdave predicted Yes (H$200 at 50%)
19 weeks ago
curios predicted No (H$402 at 49%)
19 weeks ago
curios predicted Yes (H$100 at 51%)
30 weeks ago
filanator predicted No (H$20 at 49%)
30 weeks ago
pokerface predicted Yes (H$500 at 51%)

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