Created Sun 15th Mar 6:58am PST by 
bigken1
bigken1 
When will Someone Achieve Energy Gain from a pellet fusion reactor?
Background: Experiments are planned to start in 2010 --- why are we only finding out now?
See story below. Excerpt here. and site for NIF below too.
The National Ignition Facility, or N.I.F., is at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 50 miles east of San Francisco. The government-funded N.I.F. consists of 192 giant lasers which can deliver 50 times more energy than any previous fusion laser system.
The way the N.I.F. works is that all 192 lasers pour their energy into a target chamber, which looks like a giant, spherical, steel bathysphere that you would normally use for deep-sea exploration. At the center of this target chamber is that gold can with its frozen hydrogen pellet. Once one of those pellets is heated and compressed by the lasers, it reaches temperatures over 800 million degrees Fahrenheit, far greater than exists at the center of our sun.
They hope to obtain "Energy Gain" with it -- getting more energy out than goes in.. When this is achieved, it will be the beginning of a switch over from coal to fusion energy.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/opinion/15friedman.html?_r=1
https://lasers.llnl.gov/
See story below. Excerpt here. and site for NIF below too.
The National Ignition Facility, or N.I.F., is at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 50 miles east of San Francisco. The government-funded N.I.F. consists of 192 giant lasers which can deliver 50 times more energy than any previous fusion laser system.
The way the N.I.F. works is that all 192 lasers pour their energy into a target chamber, which looks like a giant, spherical, steel bathysphere that you would normally use for deep-sea exploration. At the center of this target chamber is that gold can with its frozen hydrogen pellet. Once one of those pellets is heated and compressed by the lasers, it reaches temperatures over 800 million degrees Fahrenheit, far greater than exists at the center of our sun.
They hope to obtain "Energy Gain" with it -- getting more energy out than goes in.. When this is achieved, it will be the beginning of a switch over from coal to fusion energy.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/opinion/15friedman.html?_r=1
https://lasers.llnl.gov/
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| 2010 |
| ||||
| 2011 |
| ||||
| 2012 |
| ||||
| >2012,other, not at all or when the cows come home |
|
Question suspends in 3 years
- Activity: H$3,011 |
- Predictions: 19 |
Comments: 3
Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 11:59pm PST (3 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: 2010: 15%, 2011: 20%, 2012: 25%, >2012,other, not at all or when the cows come home: 40%
Action history:
Created Sun 15th Mar 6:58am PST by bigken1
bigken1
Changed Description Tue 17th Mar 7:42pm PST by 
tisha![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
tisha: show details ... we only finding out now? <?<br/> <br/> <br/> See story ... site for NIF below too. <.<br/> <br/> <br/> The National ... any previous fusion laser system. <.<br/> <br/> The way the ... the center of our sun. <.<br/> <br/> They hope to ... from coal to fusion energy. <.<br/> <br/> <a href="<a href="</> <a href="http://www.nytimes. ... /15friedman.html?_r=1</a>"> <><br/> <br/> a href="https://lasers.llnl.gov//">https://lasers.llnl.gov/</a>
Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 11:59pm PST (3 years to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (19)
szklaneoko
predicted 2010 (H$200 at 32%)
tomrcraver
predicted 2010 (H$100 at 30%)
10 weeks ago
bipedprimate
predicted >2012,other, not at all or when the cows come home (H$300 at 37%)Comments (3)
Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...
By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service
Related News 
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
US News 27 weeks ago
limitless supply of energy,' said Ed Moses, project manager for the Department of Energy's recently commissioned National Ignition Facility (NIF) in Livermore, Calif. The primary fuel for nuclear fusion is hydrogen, which is abundant in water. When two
score: 10
Washington Post 27 weeks ago
challenges to their employment practices. In June 1999, then-Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, based on info from the National Ignition Facility (NIF) giant laser project , gave a speech hailing the project as on time and within its budget. A
score: 10
Washington Post 27 weeks ago
challenges to their employment practices. In June 1999, then-Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, based on info from the National Ignition Facility (NIF) giant laser project , gave a speech hailing the project as on time and within its budget. A
score: 10
Wired News 28 weeks ago
a much smaller scale. Sci-fi-inspired End of Days jokes may follow this historic undertaking like they did for CERN's Large Hadron Collider, but the science behind this advanced laser system is profoundly serious. 'Completion of the NIF construction
score: 10
Wired News 28 weeks ago
the Earthquake Engineering Rese... http://brightcove.condenet.com/images/1564549380/1564549380_1873106695_asset-1224714690357.jpg?pubId=1564549380 Wired Science 6: Wired Science heads to the National Ignition Facility, where an e...
Related Tags
In any nuclear reaction, excited high energy particles are given off-- (e.g. alpha particle, beta particles, etc.) . These would cause the reactor to gradually get radioactive (so one would still be dealing with some "cleanup" after the reactor served its life of usefulness.. Nevertheless, the big danger of a nuclear meltdown or chernobyl type disaster would be eliminated.
There still would be major engineering problems to overcome, even if, the ignition and energy gain problem were satisfied... The reactor products would need to have their energy absorbed, and not cause damage to the optics of the reactor. Otherwise, the reactor would suffer from a growing sort of cataract problem, and would very quickly stop working.. If even a moderate amount (few % problem) of the reactors energy caused damage to the optics, it likely would cause the reactor to stop, since the heat would damage the optics further, etc...(so there are a LOT of technical issues that could adversely affect its working beyond an initial startup)...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/26/science/26fusi.html?ref=science
The sad thing is that there are half a dozen alternative possibilities that would need far smaller investments to test and are inherently more practical to commercialize if they do work. Fortunately several of them have been getting shoestring budgets to keep them alive, and are starting to show real promise.
Nonetheless, NIF may achieve "energy gain", though some disagree - http://www.trivalleycares.org/new/NIF_analysis_4_30.pdf
Please log in or join to add a comment