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Will Omar Hassan al-Bashir, President of Sudan, be arrested as ordered by the ICC by end of 2009?

Background: President Omar is the first acting President of a nation to be indicted by the International Criminal Court.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
27%
No
73%
Question suspends in 7 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Thu 19th Mar 8:27pm PST by colleen

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (16)

2 days ago
szklaneoko predicted No (H$200 at 73%)
1 week ago
frogchop predicted No (H$2,500 at 71%)
6 weeks ago
dieterg predicted No (H$50 at 70%)
20 weeks ago
clunger predicted No (H$100 at 68%)
27 weeks ago
zizoufromdjerba predicted No (H$100 at 68%)

Comments (1)

ICC Indictment Forcing Bashir to Stay at Home
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-10-29-voa45.cfm
An African Union summit in Nigeria was held to discuss the recommendations of a high-level panel report on resolving the Darfur conflict. Noticeably absent from the conference was Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, despite a formal invitation from Abuja to attend.

In March, the Sudanese president became the first sitting head of state to be indicted by the International Criminal Court at The Hague.

Since acquiring the distinction of being the first head of state to officially double as an international fugitive, the president has categorically avoided stepping foot in any country that is a signatory to the ICC. Nigeria is just the latest in a number of African invitations skipped by the Sudanese leader, despite the defiance taken by the African Union against the arrest warrant.
...
[More at the link...]
posted 5 days ago

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