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Will Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir be arrested by the end of June?

Settled as No

He's still on the loose...

Background:

Background:

Still free...for now.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) announced two weeks ago that it issued a warrant for the arrest of Sudan's president for alleged war crimes in Darfur. The ICC's chief prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, filed genocide charges in July last year against President Omar Hassan al-Bashir for a five-year campaign of violence in Darfur. The five charges against al-Bashir include masterminding attempts to wipe out African tribes in the war-torn region with a campaign of murder, rape and deportation.

The violence in Darfur erupted in 2003 after rebels began an uprising against the Sudanese government. To counter the rebels, Sudanese authorities armed and cooperated with Arab militias that went from village to village in Darfur, killing, torturing and raping residents there, according to the United Nations, Western governments and human rights organizations. The militias targeted civilian members of tribes from which the rebels drew strength.

Last year Moreno-Ocampo told CNN's Nic Robertson that he had "strong evidence that al-Bashir is committing a genocide." He added: "I cannot be blackmailed, I cannot yield. Silence never helped the victims. Silence helped the perpetrators. The prosecutor should not be silent." Al-Bashir bears responsibility, Moreno-Ocampo said, because he sat at the apex of the government. "For such crimes to be committed over a period of five years and throughout Darfur, al-Bashir had to mobilize and keep mobilized the whole state apparatus; he had to control and direct perpetrators; and he had to rely on a genocidal plan," Moreno-Ocampo wrote as background for arrest warrant request.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/03/04/sudan.president.darfur.charges/

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. The market will settle on the suspend date.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
1%
No
99%
Settled as No on Tue 7th Jul 2009 4:14am PST

Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 7th Jul 2009 4:14am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 30th Jun 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Fri 20th Mar 2009 1:56am PST by sqlman[Admin]
Suspended Tue 30th Jun 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 30th Jun 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 3rd Jul 2009 8:06am PST by keyeshoveden[Power User]: No arrest for the murdering tyrant
Settled as 'No' Tue 7th Jul 2009 4:14am PST by sqlman[Admin]: He's still on the loose...

Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 7th Jul 2009 4:14am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 30th Jun 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (35)

40 weeks ago
madhu4125 predicted No (H$20 at 97%)
41 weeks ago
bernardo predicted No (H$10,000 at 92%)
41 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted No (H$10,000 at 86%)
41 weeks ago
frogchop predicted No (H$1,000 at 82%)
42 weeks ago
frogchop predicted No (H$500 at 82%)

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