Created Fri 20th Mar 11:16am PST by 
bernardo
bernardo 
When will Madagascar return to the African Union?
Background: >The African Union suspended Madagascar today for what it called a coup after the military forced the elected president from office and handed power to a populist opposition leader.
The Indian Ocean island's new leader, Andry Rajoelina, has suspended parliament and threatened to arrest members of the deposed government for abuse of power over the killing of more than 100 people in demonstrations this year.
The AU's peace and security council said that the removal of the former president, Marc Ravalomanana, who signed a resignation document after the army took over his office earlier this week, was illegal. The council chairman, Bruno Nongoma Zidouemba, said it "can be interpreted as a coup".
"The council is of the opinion that what occurred in Madagascar enters the definition of unconstitutional change of government," he said.
"The council then decided to suspend the participation of Madagascar to the bodies and organs of the AU." <
>The AU said that the constitutional path required the president to hand power to the speaker of parliament and for elections to be held within two months. Rajoelina is promising a ballot within two years.
If Madagascar does not restore constitutional order within six months, the AU can impose sanctions. The organisation has also suspended Mauritania and Guinea after military takeovers in recent months.<
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/20/african-union-suspends-madagascar">http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/20/african-union-suspends-madagascar<;/a>
The Indian Ocean island's new leader, Andry Rajoelina, has suspended parliament and threatened to arrest members of the deposed government for abuse of power over the killing of more than 100 people in demonstrations this year.
The AU's peace and security council said that the removal of the former president, Marc Ravalomanana, who signed a resignation document after the army took over his office earlier this week, was illegal. The council chairman, Bruno Nongoma Zidouemba, said it "can be interpreted as a coup".
"The council is of the opinion that what occurred in Madagascar enters the definition of unconstitutional change of government," he said.
"The council then decided to suspend the participation of Madagascar to the bodies and organs of the AU." <
>The AU said that the constitutional path required the president to hand power to the speaker of parliament and for elections to be held within two months. Rajoelina is promising a ballot within two years.
If Madagascar does not restore constitutional order within six months, the AU can impose sanctions. The organisation has also suspended Mauritania and Guinea after military takeovers in recent months.<
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/20/african-union-suspends-madagascar">http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/20/african-union-suspends-madagascar<;/a>
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| Before September 19, 2009 |
| ||||
| September 19, 2009 - December 31, 2009 |
| ||||
| January 1, 2010 - August 31, 2010 |
| ||||
| September 1, 2010 - March 16, 2011 |
| ||||
| After March 16, 2011 |
|
Question suspends in 1 year
- Activity: H$4,477 |
- Predictions: 6 |
Comments: 1
Suspend date: Wed 16th Mar 2011 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
Initial likelihoods: Before September 19, 2009: 35%, September 19, 2009 - December 31, 2009: 25%, January 1, 2010 - August 31, 2010: 20%, September 1, 2010 - March 16, 2011: 10%, After March 16, 2011: 10%
Action history:
Created Fri 20th Mar 11:16am PST by bernardo
bernardo 
Suspend date: Wed 16th Mar 2011 11:59pm PST (1 year to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (6)
tim14
predicted September 1, 2010 - March 16, 2011 (H$20 at 5%)
onedave![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted After March 16, 2011 (H$20 at 10%)
predicted September 19, 2009 - December 31, 2009 (H$20 at 24%)Comments (1)
Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...
By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service
Related News 
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
Al Jazeera 27 weeks ago
Madagascar's ousted president has said he is 'confident' he will return home and suggested he could use force to achieve that aim. Marc Ravalomanana, who fled to Swaziland when he
score: 10
The Times South Africa 27 weeks ago
Madagascar leader Andry Rajoelina, who seized power in March, said he would not run as a candidate in promised presidential elections, a French diplomatic source said. 'Andry Rajoelina announced Tuesday to
score: 10
AFP via Yahoo! 27 weeks ago
PARIS (AFP) Madagascar leader Andry Rajoelina, who seized power in March, said Tuesday he would not run as a candidate in promised presidential elections, a French diplomatic source said. 'Andry Rajoelina announced Tuesday
score: 10
Sowetan 28 weeks ago
Addis Ababa ? Madagascar?s transition government is ready to hold elections by the end of the year, African Union officials have said. The authority set up by army-backed opposition leader Andry Rajoelina, who
score: 10
SABC 29 weeks ago
Madagascar's military backed government is willing to hold elections by the end of the year, the African Union (AU) said yesterday. The army-backed administration of President Andry Rajoelina came to
Related Tags
The authority set up by army-backed opposition leader Andry Rajoelina, who forced Marc Ravalomanana to relinquish power on March 17, "has let it be known to us that it is ready to bring forward the transition calendar," the AU's special envoy in Madagascar, Ablasse Ouedraogo, told a press conference.
Elections were promised for 2010, but "they have said they are ready to organise elections before the end of December 2009."
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iDVsaocTMVM9WQUp2fZaPXiOT69A
Please log in or join to add a comment