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Created Fri 27th Mar 2:49pm PST by cookietime

Will Japan shoot down North Korea's missile?

Settled as No

The rocket was launched, but Japan didn't attempt to shoot it down (probably because it failed to achieve orbit all on its own).

Background:

Background: An earlier question asked if the US would shoot down the missile launch, planned for the 4th-8th of April, and now Japan has given the green light to its military to do so. In my opinion, this would be quite a full on event for the region. Will they do it by the end of the launch window, N Korea time?

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

NOTE: per the question creator, Japan would have to successfully shoot down the North Korean missile for this to settle as 'Yes'; an unsuccessful attempt to shoot down the missile wouldn't count.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
8%
No
44%
No missile launch by end of play, April 8
48%
Settled as No on Sun 5th Apr 4:20am PST

Suspend date: Fri 3rd Apr 7am PST
Settlement date: Sun 5th Apr 4:20am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 3rd Apr 7am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%, No: 47%, No missile launch by end of play, April 8: 33%

Action history:

Created Fri 27th Mar 2:49pm PST by cookietime
Changed Settlement info Mon 30th Mar 3:36am PST by sqlman[Admin]: show details
... &nbsp;As reported by a major mainstream news source. <br/> <br/> NOTE: per the question creator, Japan would have to successfully shoot down the North Korean missile for this to settle as 'Yes'; an unsuccessful attempt to shoot down the missile wouldn't count.
Suspended Fri 3rd Apr 7am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 4th Apr 7:13pm PST by chull: Rocket Launched, No attempt made to shoot it down
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53058220090405
Settlement requested Sat 4th Apr 8:42pm PST by okiejon76: Launch confirmed today (April 4) by all major news sources with no Japanese response...
Settlement requested Sat 4th Apr 10:20pm PST by randburg: Launch confirmed; nothing shot down. Can this question please be settled?
Settlement requested Sun 5th Apr 1:08am PST by shackleford: Hi, the rocket has been launched, and no reports that anyone shot it down: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7982874.stm
Settled as 'No' Sun 5th Apr 4:20am PST by sqlman[Admin]: The rocket was launched, but Japan didn't attempt to shoot it down (probably because it failed to achieve orbit all on its own).

Suspend date: Fri 3rd Apr 7am PST
Settlement date: Sun 5th Apr 4:20am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 3rd Apr 7am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (240)

33 weeks ago
gyuri predicted No missile launch by end of play, April 8 (H$800 at 45%)
33 weeks ago
gyuri predicted No missile launch by end of play, April 8 (H$100 at 91%)
33 weeks ago
kumicho predicted Yes (H$50 at 1%)
33 weeks ago
bigh165 predicted No missile launch by end of play, April 8 (H$10,000 at 72%)
33 weeks ago
samaaronpublic predicted No (H$300 at 54%)

Comments (11)

  1 coolkraft
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/03/27/north.korea.us.ships/index.html
posted 34 weeks ago
  2 cookietime
@ coolkraft...that article mentions the possibility that Japan will shoot down 'debris' which I hadn't considered when setting the odds. My question was whether they would shoot down the missile itself, so for the purposes of settlement, shooting down any falling debris wouldnt count - and Japan have said that the likelihood of them actually being able to hit any debris is 'very low'.
posted 34 weeks ago
  3 coolkraft
@cookietime...articles vary as shown below...some say japan will shoot the missile itself

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123819923986362105.html
posted 34 weeks ago
  4 cookietime
yep, thats what I was getting at with the question - a shot at the missile itself, not a defensive gesture to tidy up any falling debris heading for, say, tokyo. Sorry I should have been more specific.
posted 34 weeks ago
  5 coolkraft
@cookietime this article says Japan will shoot down the missile......as well as the debris....
posted 33 weeks ago
  6 coolkraft
http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/news/2009/space-090313-rianovosti01.htm
posted 33 weeks ago
  7 sqlman[Admin]
FYI, per the question creator, Japan would have to successfully shoot down the North Korean missile for this to settle as 'Yes'; an unsuccessful attempt to shoot down the missile wouldn't count.
posted 33 weeks ago
  8 cookietime
Sounds like they North Koreans have wheeled their satellite missile to the local BP station and are filling her up with full strength 98 octane, ready for a launch this weekend...

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/04/01/north.korea.rocket/index.html?eref=rss_topstories
posted 33 weeks ago
  9 cookietime
The US has asked the Koreans - quite nicely - not to launch the missile. This is exactly the type of request that they tend to ignore.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/02/north.korea.missiles/index.html?eref=rss_topstories
posted 33 weeks ago
  10 sqlman[Admin]
The North Koreans want to be seen as one of the Big Boys, so at this stage of the game they'll tend to ignore just about any request... :)
posted 33 weeks ago
  11 bernardo
Now that you're speaking of the "satellite missile" I'd like to know if a missile is a weapon by definition or if it would count as missile when they just try to launch their satellite on a carrier rocket. Thanks.
posted 33 weeks ago

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