fingers_of_fury
RCP Poll Average: President Obama Job Approval - O/U 60.5% on Saturday, April 4th?
As of today, Saturday, March 28, 2009, President Obama's last 10 published job approval poll averages from Real Clear Politics:
03/26/09 - 60.8
03/25/09 - 60.8
03/24/09 - 61.2
03/23/09 - 61.2
03/22/09 - 60.2
03/21/09 - 60.2
03/20/09 - 60.2
03/19/09 - 60.2
03/18/09 - 60.2
03/17/09 - 60.2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#chart
Settlement details:As reported by Real Clear Politics:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#chart
| Over 60.5% |
| |||
| Under 60.5% |
| |||
| Exactly 60.5% |
|
- Activity: H$64,180 |
- Predictions: 205 |
Comments: 10
Suspend date: Sat 4th Apr 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 5th Apr 7:04pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 4th Apr 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Over 60.5%: 53%, Under 60.5%: 43%, Exactly 60.5%: 4%
Action history:
fingers_of_fury fingers_of_fury: Please settle as: Over 60.5%
Per the graph (middle of page) the president's approval rating was 60.7% on 04/04.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#chart
hfl13
: 60,7
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#chart
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
Suspend date: Sat 4th Apr 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 5th Apr 7:04pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 4th Apr 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (205)
curios predicted Over 60.5% (H$9,800 at 98%)
predicted Over 60.5% (H$1,146 at 86%)
predicted Over 60.5% (H$100 at 84%)
n1kkc
predicted Under 60.5% (H$100 at 8%)
predicted Over 60.5% (H$100 at 85%)Comments (10)
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I borrowed the O/U concept from letmewinplees.
The settlement date implies the later - the rest of the question the first interpretation.
I intended for settlement to be based on RCP's poll average for 04/04, whenever the 04/04 results are published.
Re-reading the settlement details, I see your point, I didn't make that crystal clear... I apologize.
If the lack of clarity ruined the question for you (and/or others) please flag it so the category editor can clarify/fix the details or void the question if necessary. Whichever is most agreeable to Hubdub users wagering on this is fine by me.
Thanks,
fof
no problem for me - only 4,5K invested. A settlement in a few hours would have given me some Ks in gains. But my original bets were on slightly dropping popularity.
And than Oboma makes a success aut ouf the difficult Europe trip. ;-) But maybe Fox News has another 58 or 26. ;-)
I can either stay invested or sell tomorrow. I really liked this question.
Do you know how RCP takes the average? (How many polls are in? Are they weighted? What statistical method is used?)
The Friday average is out and its up to 60,6. The next 24 hours will have tension. There will be a new gallup value (62% gained 1% the last 3 days from a weak 59) and there are 4 older polls in the mix:
64 - 66 - 63 - 58 are the last entrys - same date. Will one of these 4 have a new survey out or another pollster? Tension is guaranted in the last betting hours. All polls together there is only 1% less needed for 60,5 and 2% for 60,4. (not per poll but total)
My HD$ loves Fox and Rasmussen.
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