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Created Sun 29th Mar 10:38am PST by candelario

Which of the following Bush officials will be ordered arrested by a Spanish Judge?

Settled as No outcome by suspend date

None of them have been arrested (yet).

Background:

Background: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/29/world/europe/29spain.html?_r=1&hp

Judge Balthazar Garzon has never been timid in the face of allegedly corrupt public officials. He ordered the successful arrest of Chilean Dictator Pinochet and through similar warrants, has effectively condemned ex-Mexican president Echeverria to remain in Mexico for life. Which of these Bush officials, under investigation by the Spanish court, will be ORDERED ARRESTED.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Alberto Gonzalez
0%
John C. Yoo
0%
Douglas J. Feith
0%
William J. Haynes II
0%
Jay S. Bybee
0%
David S. Addington
0%
2 to six ordered arrested
0%
No outcome by suspend date
98%
Settled as No outcome by suspend date on Tue 6th Oct 2:23am PST

Suspend date: Tue 29th Sep 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 6th Oct 2:23am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 29th Sep 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Alberto Gonzalez: 12%, John C. Yoo: 12%, Douglas J. Feith: 12%, William J. Haynes II: 12%, Jay S. Bybee: 12%, David S. Addington: 12%, 2 to six ordered arrested: 14%, No outcome by suspend date: 14%

Action history:

Created Sun 29th Mar 10:38am PST by candelario
Suspended Tue 29th Sep 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 5th Oct 9:16pm PST by drzinternet: NONE
Settled as 'No outcome by suspend date' Tue 6th Oct 2:23am PST by sqlman[Admin]: None of them have been arrested (yet).

Suspend date: Tue 29th Sep 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 6th Oct 2:23am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 29th Sep 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (64)

7 weeks ago
bob_loblaw predicted No outcome by suspend date (H$40 at 98%)
11 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted No outcome by suspend date (H$10,000 at 89%)
13 weeks ago
abundegas predicted No outcome by suspend date (H$1,000 at 73%)
15 weeks ago
reeeno predicted No outcome by suspend date (H$100 at 70%)
15 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted No outcome by suspend date (H$2,000 at 43%)

Comments (5)

  1 emmag
I don't know how the Spanish court system works. Does it take time to get indictments there or can the judge just order someone to be arrested?
posted 33 weeks ago
  2 chatarra
@Enmag
Good question - I wondered about the same things.
:-)
posted 33 weeks ago
  3 deelilley
In Spain the judge hears the case before s/he orders an arrest warrant. Basically, Judge Garzón has reviewed the 98 page complaint, "which is based on the Geneva Conventions and the 1984 Convention Against Torture, which is binding on 145 countries, including Spain and the United States" and has ordered a criminal investigation. "Calls for the Justice Department to open a criminal investigation have so far been resisted by the Obama administration, but for more than four years, the Justice Department ethics office has been conducting its own investigation into the work of Mr. Yoo and some of his colleagues." BFD!
Go Spain.
http://tinyurl.com/dxamnq
posted 33 weeks ago
  4 spyder
Where's the "none" option?
posted 33 weeks ago
  5 candelario
None would be no outcome by suspend date. Given that Garzon spent years going after Pinochet, I think it's downright impossible that he would drop this thing before the suspend date.
posted 33 weeks ago

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