Created Sun 29th Mar 2:51pm PST by

How many Hubdubbers will have more than H$ 1,000,000 on July 1st?

Settled as 16 to 17

Background: As I write this, HubDub has 104 players who have >H$ 100,000, 52 with at least H$250,000, 25 with > H$ 500,000 and still only 9 millionaires. However, at least 6 within striking distance with more than H$ 900,000. How many players will reach >H$1,000,000 at 12:00 noon on July 1, 2009? Remember that you can lose as well as gain points in this game! The question will suspend 1 week before, on June 24.

Settlement details:As per All Time Net Worth Leader Board on July 1, 2009 at 12 noon http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=1

Forecast history %

9 or less - going nowhere

10 to 11

12 to 13

14 to 15

16 to 17

92%

18 or more HD rocks!

Settled as 16 to 17 on Wed 1st Jul 4:14am PST

Activity: H$169,215
Predictions: 627
Comments: 53

Suspend date: Wed 24th Jun 9am PST
Settlement date: Wed 1st Jul 4:14am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 24th Jun 9am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 9 or less - going nowhere: 10%, 10 to 11: 15%, 12 to 13: 25%, 14 to 15: 25%, 16 to 17: 15%, 18 or more HD rocks!: 10%

Action history:

Created Sun 29th Mar 2:51pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Suspended Wed 24th Jun 9am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 1st Jul 2:30am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: the answer is 17
thanks

Settled as '16 to 17' Wed 1st Jul 4:14am PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

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Predictions (627)

21 weeks ago

swamee Level 10, Genius (H$13,781)

predicted 18 or more HD rocks! (H$50 at 3%)

21 weeks ago

tgallag2 Level 13, Psychic (H$55,920)

predicted 14 to 15 (H$50 at 1%)

21 weeks ago

gugoneaflorin Level 7, Pro (H$3,172)

predicted 9 or less - going nowhere (H$50 at 0%)

21 weeks ago

tkmshadow Level 1, Newbie (H$660)

predicted 10 to 11 (H$100 at 0%)

21 weeks ago

kauraparth Level 1, Newbie (H$117)

predicted 18 or more HD rocks! (H$1,000 at 20%)

Comments (53)

alornout Level 1, Newbie (H$466)

the amount over H$ 1,000,000 hasent changed since i have started! 14 to 15 ye all in the wrong!

posted 33 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,424,640)

@alornout - true... perhaps... but watch out for the Hubdubers operating in stealth mode ;-)

posted 33 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,424,640)

There were 9 yesterday, 10 today... at this rate we should hit 18 by April 9th.

posted 33 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,424,640)

mrperfkt is the eleventh millionaire!!!

posted 33 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,424,640)

buckeyetom

Net worth: H$999,485
http://www.hubdub.com/users/buckeyetom

posted 33 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,424,640)

buckeyetom is the twelfth millionaire!!!

posted 33 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

We are on a roll. There are a few players ascending the ladder at a rapid pace. I think there will be a surprise in store!

posted 33 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,424,640)

keyeshoveden

Net worth: H$999,546
http://www.hubdub.com/users/keyeshoveden

posted 33 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,424,640)

keyeshovedenis the thirteenth millionaire!!!

posted 32 weeks ago

hfl13

tuff can you make it at number 16 for me, please ?

posted 30 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

I don't know. Maybe, but I am not sure that I will make it either. I may have to spend time doing more important things, so my rate of ascent may well slow down. There is a loooong way to go to 1M. The players in the 14-18 positions are not going anywhere, bgrigore is the only one with a good shot at it based on recent performance.That would make 14. You and I might make it, but it is a long way off. Then there is the chance that some might slide backwards and drop out of the superdubber class. So, 14-15 is probably the most likely, but who knows.

posted 30 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,424,640)

...and be wary of the stealth millionares

posted 30 weeks ago

hfl13

Hi tuff, I just put some pressure on you, if you want to win your bets here.

Yesterday I cashed in my 18+ Today my 16-17 and my new choice is 12-13.

And if I manage 1.000.000 I am fine with loosing this bet.

posted 30 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

I accept the challenge! I just cashed in MY 12-13 bets and put some of it back on 16-17, seeing that you are serious about getting up to 1M. Still, I think 14-15 is where it will end. And then, there are those stealth millionaires fof is warning about! This ought to be fun.

posted 30 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,424,640)

More on stealth:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Topic/Not_appearing_in_leaderboards_301
http://www.hubdub.com/m15967 (comment #5)

posted 30 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,700,930)

randburg, sdchargers, are back on leaderboards
fof, is keyeshoveden "the thirteenth" or the fourteenth millionaire? Also I don't understand, is it your choice to be stealth or is it a problem with leaderboards?
I am pretty sure at this moment there is only one stealth millionaire.

posted 30 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

bg, who is the stealth millionaire? I suspected there was someone who disappeared, since key was supposedly the 13th and then he was 12th. I figured maybe somebody just quit, though I don't know how one can remove oneself from the game. So, how are we to know if and when the MIA millionaire re-appears? This needs to be fixed sometime soon. f-o-f, do you have some insight into this? Is there a way to confirm who is hiding? This question turns out to be trickier than I though.
Thanks for your help, everyone.

posted 30 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

The "stealth" thing is a known bug, but I don't know if the devs have checked it out recently. Its probably worth another "Contact Us" note to make sure they know its still happening. I know at least fof should be up there and isn't but can't think of anyone else off the top of my head who is missing.

posted 30 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,700,930)

@jenniandboys I too think fof is the stealth millionaire at the moment. There was time when the same happened with sdchargers or randburg.
@tuff check fof's profile

posted 30 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

OK, one has reappeared - sort of. We've ID'ed you, thanks to bg. f-o-f, thanks for giving us the hint. So, there are really already 14! I see 3 more as likely, maybe more, but that's a longshot. Time will tell.

posted 30 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$598,742)

jenni - how many people do you usually have on the top of your head? fof what r u doing on top of jenni's head in the first place? :O)

posted 30 weeks ago

hfl13

The hidden millionaire(s) is not fair. Hope he/they stay hidden till July 2nd.
I thought fof was joking. Its no fun when the settlement source (HubDub) isn´t working correct.

posted 30 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

@hfl: see comments on the 500K market. f_o_f has provided some very useful information. I have sent e-mail to administrators as jenni suggests. It seems that the only hubdubber with high net worth is f_o_f, nobody else who is hidden seems to be over 200K. So, I think the market should settle on the basis of best available information, not faulty leaderboard data. As far as I am concerned, there are currently 14 millionaires. Luckily, if my predictions for who else makes it are correct, it will not matter, because it will be 16 w/o f_o_f and 17 with him, so it's the same answer!

posted 30 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,678,940)

hfl: A fair is a place where you ride the ferris wheel and eat cotton candy. This is HubDub; a place where you spend hours researching the irrelevant to win money that you can spend nowhere.

posted 29 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,678,940)

posted 29 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,234)

too funny frogchop

posted 29 weeks ago

hfl13

:-) They fixed fof today.

posted 29 weeks ago

hfl13

Where is my cotton candy ?

posted 29 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Welcome back, fof! back from stealth mode! congratulations!

posted 29 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,678,940)

Keep lots of ice on it for the next few days FoF. The swelling should go down after a couple days. :p

posted 29 weeks ago

hfl13

I programmed a hack that will let the Top 7 disappear on 30th June. Than I really cash out with 9 ! :-)

Have fun with this questions! Thanks to the programmers for fixing fof early.

posted 29 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

das ist nicht gut!

posted 29 weeks ago

hfl13

Changed my bets hopefully for the last time.

posted 29 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Now there are 15....

posted 24 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,424,640)

Congratulations tuff!!!

posted 23 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,700,930)

@tuff_sledding Chances are slim that I'll be a millionaire before July 1st. I'm not ready to play with big money yet - 650k of my money is in cash and only 250k in predictions. Also I have some bad markets so what I win is to cover the losses. But hfl will surely be above, maybe sqlman, I will try also but do not count me in as certain.

posted 22 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

@ bg: As you can see, everybody's money seems to be on one or the other of you to make it - sou don't disappoint! You could make it, if you get more daring. I had to work on it myself - I tend to be conservative and limit my exposure. But some markets were very safe and still offered 15-20% returns, so I piled big H$ into those and now have 75% tied up in predictions...

posted 22 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

@ f-o-f: thanks - didn't think anybody noticed. I guess I need to set a new goal. Top ten looks like a good target by the end of the year....

posted 22 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

hfl13!!! what are you doing?? Are you gaming the questions or just having some bad luck with your predictions?

posted 22 weeks ago

hfl13

@martin: Some bad luck - less time.

I am pretty shure I will make it and bgrigore too.

I am not so invested in this question. My guess is you and me are on the same number.

Stay calm. And congrats on your recent successes!

posted 22 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

glad to see your comeback is on track...

posted 22 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,700,930)

I already made it and hope to get clear soon, that means at more than 1100k. I'll take one month vacation since July 6th so I'll go up as much as I can until then.

posted 22 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

awesome finish, bogdan, that was quite a sprint. welcome to the 1M club!!

posted 22 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

oh, oh, here comes sqlman to make it 18!!!

posted 21 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

I'm trying, but I may have to take a short leave of absence before the end of the month; don't count me in just yet. :-)

posted 21 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

This will be determined at 12 noon in which time zone? Is that GMT?

posted 21 weeks ago

mickeydaniel Level 16, Oracle (H$886,700)

If it turns out that our new stealth friend stlj9174 is for real, 18 is a sure thing once hfl13 makes it.

posted 21 weeks ago

mickeydaniel Level 16, Oracle (H$886,700)

@sqlman: Since stlj9174 has been placed on inactive and removed from the quarterly leaderboard, does their overall H$ total still count for this question? stlj9174 still shows as #11 with $1,320,610.

posted 20 weeks ago

mickeydaniel Level 16, Oracle (H$886,700)

@tuff_sledding: Sorry, this question should have been for you... Since stlj9174 has been placed on inactive and removed from the quarterly leaderboard, does their overall H$ total still count for this question? stlj9174 still shows as #11 with $1,320,610

posted 20 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

That will have to be determined by the administrators. I don't have any control over how the question is settled. If I had a vote, I would say he/she should not be counted if it is some kind of fraud. The powers to be are looking into this, I think. Best to put a flag to get a ruling.

posted 20 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Good! I see the phantom account has been deleted completely. Thank you admin's. That's a relief!
Now I can welcome the latest real member of the 1M club:
CONGRATZ, hfl13. Well done!

posted 20 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

This is 12 noon in which time zone?

posted 20 weeks ago

hfl13

If no timezone is mentioned it must be PST by the rules. But I guess the admins will go with the last numbers before they switch to the new Q3 counting.

posted 20 weeks ago

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