Created Mon 30th Mar 6:25pm PST by

curios

Will the arsonist who escaped by hiding under a prison van be caught?

Settled as caught within a month

The arsonist was turned himself in this morning in London
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/5082655/Prisoner-who-escaped-by-clinging-to-underside-of-a-van-is-rearrested.html

Background:

Background: LONDON (Reuters) - Police were hunting Monday a convicted arsonist who escaped from London's Pentonville prison by clinging to the underside of the security van that brought him there.

Julien Chautard, 39, gave prison officers the slip shortly after he was counted off the van, newspapers reported.

His disappearance Friday evening was not noticed before the van was cleared to drive out of the jail.

It was only when CCTV footage was checked seven hours later that officers noticed a shadow under the van that had not been there before.

Chautard had been sentenced earlier in the day at Snaresbrook Crown Court to seven years imprisonment for two counts of arson, Scotland Yard said.

Police said he has connections in France and also has links to the Hackney, Edgware and Kings Cross areas of north London.

"The circumstances around the escape will be fully investigated," the Ministry of Justice said.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/mp/5465659/arsonist-escapes-prison-clinging-security-van/

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

caught within a month

59%

caught in two months

12%

not caught by suspended time

29%

Settled as caught within a month on Wed 1st Apr 11:51am PST

Activity: H$11,358
Predictions: 30
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 1st Apr 11:51am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 1st Apr 1am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: caught within a month: 40%, caught in two months: 35%, not caught by suspended time: 25%

Action history:

Created Mon 30th Mar 6:25pm PST by

curios

Changed Question text Tue 31st Mar 8:02am PST by

ryanj

: show details

... ~~WILL -~~Will the arsonist ~~be caught~~ who escaped ~~hanging~~by hiding under ~~the~~a prison van ~~that~~be ~~took him to prison ?~~caught?

Settlement requested Wed 1st Apr 4:54am PST by

kgholderman Level 11, Legend (H$19,284)

: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/5082655/Prisoner-who-escaped-by-clinging-to-underside-of-a-van-is-rearrested.html

Settled as 'caught within a month' Wed 1st Apr 11:51am PST by

ryanj

: The arsonist was turned himself in this morning in London
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/5082655/Prisoner-who-escaped-by-clinging-to-underside-of-a-van-is-rearrested.html

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Predictions (30)

31 weeks ago

tannerdude18 Level 1, Newbie (H$51)

predicted caught in two months (H$20 at 9%)

31 weeks ago

adammccormicks Level 12, Guru (H$26,924)

predicted caught in two months (H$100 at 8%)

31 weeks ago

jhc360 Level 9, Expert (H$8,341)

predicted not caught by suspended time (H$20 at 51%)

31 weeks ago

bout3fitty Level 15, Seer (H$366,778)

predicted not caught by suspended time (H$1,000 at 45%)

31 weeks ago

bout3fitty Level 15, Seer (H$366,778)

predicted not caught by suspended time (H$1,000 at 32%)

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score: 10

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Guardian Unlimited 31 weeks ago

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