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Gay Marriage in Iowa: will the state legislature intervene in 2009?

Settled as legislation does not pass in 2009

No legislation was passed in 2009

Background:

Background: DES MOINES, Iowa - Democrats who control the Legislature embraced an Iowa Supreme Court decision Friday legalizing same-sex marriage in the state and said they oppose allowing lawmakers to vote on a constitutional amendment that could overturn the ruling.

Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, said the Legislature is in its closing stretch and he doesn't want to inject the volatile issue of gay marriage into the mix.

"On this subject it is exceedingly unlikely that anything will happen on this subject in the Senate this year," said Gronstal.

Still, Republicans promised to seek a constitutional amendment.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-ap-ia-xgr-iowa-gaymarri,0,2783759.story

"We will have a resolution ready Monday," said Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, R-Chariton. "The Legislature spoke when they voted for the defense of marriage act. Mike Gronstal voted for that act."

Iowa does not have a voter initiative and referendum process in place for changing the state constitution.

http://www.iandrinstitute.org/Iowa.htm

Question asks whether state legislature will pass a law to overturn the Iowa court ruling allowing gay marriage.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
legislation passes before/on Memorial Day (May 25)
1%
after May 25 and b4/on July 4
1%
after July 4 and b4/on election day (Nov 3)
1%
after Nov 3 and b4 New Year's Day, 2010
1%
legislation does not pass in 2009
97%
Settled as legislation does not pass in 2009 on Sat 16th Jan 6:22am PST

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 16th Jan 6:22am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: legislation passes before/on Memorial Day (May 25): 3%, after May 25 and b4/on July 4: 3%, after July 4 and b4/on election day (Nov 3): 4%, after Nov 3 and b4 New Year's Day, 2010: 8%, legislation does not pass in 2009: 82%

Action history:

Created Fri 3rd Apr 2009 5:49pm PST by capecodviking[Power User]
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 14th Jan 10:40pm PST by randburg: This question has been suspended for more than fourteen days without settlement. Can this question please be settled at this time? Many Thanks!
Settled as 'legislation does not pass in 2009' Sat 16th Jan 6:22am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: No legislation was passed in 2009

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 16th Jan 6:22am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (15)

49 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted legislation does not pass in 2009 (H$20 at 83%)
50 weeks ago
tkui predicted legislation does not pass in 2009 (H$20 at 83%)
50 weeks ago
jeopardy predicted legislation does not pass in 2009 (H$100 at 83%)
50 weeks ago
raidersin09 predicted after Nov 3 and b4 New Year's Day, 2010 (H$5 at 8%)
50 weeks ago
hemantkpatel predicted legislation does not pass in 2009 (H$100 at 83%)

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