Will the 'no' option be a greater percentage than the 'yes' option at suspend date?

Ha its a classic! Nice.

LOL - Very clever!

Wow!

great - circular logic

EVIL!

I'll bet we'll see some interesting bets made in the last few minutes of play on this market!

too funny!!

Everthing I say is a lie.

deja vu

what if they are exactly equal?

So if it is a 50/50 split the no option isn't greater...

Oh gawd! I can't decide which one! :P

The obvious choice is yes. Geeez! Easy one! lol
Thanks for bringing back a classic, Kruijs.

Okay, so who's going to be the first to make a BIG wager and make that graph spike?!

There goes the "No means No!" thing.!

In addition to the potential gaming by incrementally increasing the odds of one and then bettinig big on another,, I could just as easily make 50 new user accounts, each betting on option A, and immediately afterwards put money on B. Sure I can't guarantee the odds - it's probably still 50/50, but I can give my potential return at say 5 to 1, rather than the 2 to 1 of a 50/50 split.

Also, you could dump in 100k at 50%, it rockets up to 80. You then wait for it to hit 50%, and at the last minute, pull out all that money (70k?) and put it into the other option, and make some that way. That one relies a bit on other people's bets, but it still has a chance of happening.

How many digits for settlement?

you i think it might create a bit of a flag if 50 new users put their 1K bankrolls on the same option? and you can use new user accounts to jack up the odds in the opposite direction of the way you're betting on any question, but would you really do that over a free, fun game?

as for your logic, i think it's a bit flawed. that's the beauty of this question. if you think you've figured it out, then bet away, but i have a feeling you might be unpleasantly surprised.

shojun, the market created by skipper was discussed in advance on the getsatisfaction thread (as hubdub didn't have its own forums those days yet).

Nigel Eccles, "Chief News Junkie at Hubdub" (http://www.hubdub.com/users/nigeleccles), ruled:
"happy trading! (I'll be interested to see how this one turns out...)"
(http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/self_referential_questions_why_arent_they_allowed#reply_264191).

your argument "as easily make 50 new user accounts" does fit on any other question too.

Nevertheless: If you think your second argument is worth a try and it "has a chance of happening" - go for it :)

good luck

I do recall this question (and the headache it gave me the first time around). As far as I can figure out (then and now) it is legit. I will of course keep an eye on it.

Brilliant! Golf clap, good sir.

shojun, the gaming you talk about with the 50 new accounts, if it could be done, could be done on any question.

As for your second gaming idea, unless things have changed, you can't bet more than 10k at a shot, so betting 100k takes time. And, I don't see it working anyway, but let me know if you try it so I can take the other side.

Anyone remember the movie War Games? "Global thermal nuclear war?" Remember the synopsis at the end? "The only way not to lose, is not to play." That is how this question stacks up.

I made +645 H$ just by buying and cashing in, by now

Ha! So every bet is a bet against yourself. I should do well on this one then =)

For some reason every time I look at this it's early morning or late at night, and it's giving me a headache again ;)

The 50 person one - yeah it's theoretical and I wouldn't recommend it - I just remember having some similar questions voided as anyone could sign up and affect the outcome - eg what will the 10,000th username start with. Although yes I agree - it's for fun and one would hope nobody would be that ... sad :)

I'm still not sure about the betting, baiting, and switching idea. I'm going to keep an eye on my H$ - I certainly don't have 100k to bet with, but I hope to still make a tidy profit on this one - better than I tend to do on Dow Jones ones at least... (although by NOT betting I'd be doing better than Dow Jones ones ... sigh ;))

Cheers, glad to be back enjoying the fun,

Mark

Wait.. what?

I once where is the transparency on this site at that time if you where admin or superusers there was then no need to show what they have wagered on,
there are enough with more than one account already to enforce that 50 person idea (and to clarify that statement i am not referring to admin or superusers as a having more than one account)

If have you have such a problem with the question, how bout just don't bet on it?

hahaha classic!

This sentence is false.

How will this question be settled at the end look like 50/50 with the limited precision that hubdub shows? Where can more accurate percentages be viewed to settle the question?

When you bet money on a question, "Your Price" is accurate to 2 decimal places.

How come all of the big spikes are downwards?

at the moment 'yes' is
winning at 50.21 %
while 'no' has 50.05%

'Yes' is winning at 50.2% vs 'No' at 48.84%

My guess is that someone is going to come in at the last minute and skew this question one way or another, just for the heck of it.

When my kids were younger (8 or 9 years-old) they use to declare "Today is Opposite Day" (meaning everything said is the opposite of it's real meaning), to which I would reply, "Today is not Opposite Day".

After some thought, I believe that this question can be "gamed" by users with a lot of HD$.

If I understand the question correctly, it is equivalent to the question "Which answer will settle lower, A or B" (which I find easier to think about =) Gaming this question is not as straightforward as the reverse question "Which question will settle higher, A or B", but I believe it is possible using the same basic concept of leveraging your HD$ at the last moment to control the outcome.

Lets say you have $100,000 cash. It should be possible to incrementally slip all that money into one side of the market over a period of time at roughly 50% with no net loss to you. Because people are constantly playing the small variations in this market, it will (and has) continued to balance itself out over time allowing you to do this. Let's say we have bet our $100,000 in "No" in this case, all at roughly 50%.

Now, lets assume the market remains relatively balanced at 50/50 leading up to the suspend date while you have your $100,000 quietly waiting in "No". Immediately before the suspend date, you remove enough money from "No" to ensure that your side will drop just below 50% (let's say here half of your money which is $50,000.... more than enough at this point), which would cause the question to settle as a win for your remaining $50,000.... doubling half of your money, costing you only a small percentage of the money you cashed in to control the outcome.

It is true that this might not work if someone else is using the same technique on the opposite answer, and has more money invested than you. However, this is a similar situation if you allow the question "Which answer will settle higher", where the wealthy HD'ers can influence the outcome by throwing their money at their own question at the last moment.

Since this market has inflated to almost $250,000, I wouldn't be surprised if someone isn't planning something like this already =)

I wondered that too, but I reckon its ok - it might be possible to game it that way, but you can't control how others are playing, so there's no way it would be a sure thing. Seems to me it is still a 'bet' as you can't be sure, so even though you'd be trying to game, you couldn't be 100% certain of winning? A much safer way to make money on this question is to buy low and sell high :)

@child: The trouble with your hypothetical gaming is that when your bet is a substantial portion of the total, you can't remove it without losing money in the process. I think you lose pretty close to what you gain by doing this. But feel free to test the hypothesis and share with the rest of us how it worked.

You would lose some of the money you cash in of course. But If you pulled out the hypothetical 50k above, with around 300k in the pot. there is no way you would lose close to the amount you would make by doubling your other half. Unfortunately I don't have enough enough moola to be confident that I could control the outcome. It would take everything I've got to have a chance with this market almost 300k and rising....

I have the moola but not the cajones to try this. I hope someone is interested in testing the hypothesis and will report back to the group re how well it worked. I've been involved with some markets where I could not pull a substantial portion of the stake without knocking my net worth down a few K. When you bet enough to move the market, when you take it out it moves the market in the opposite direction. I don't think this would prove to be a very effective strategy.

This question is wrapping up in a few days - should be interesting to see how the last minute shimmies go down...not sure if I plan to leave any money in the market for that or not...

I see we had some large gyrations recently. Anybody involved care to share experiences?

400K ... 1/2 day to go ...

35 trades, all sold, H$1,989 profit, no losses. Yummy.
Cashed in You predicted You staked You received You gained
No 100 101 1 3 weeks ago
Yes 100 128 28 2 weeks ago
Yes 100 126 26 2 weeks ago
No 100 111 11 2 weeks ago
Yes 100 106 6 2 weeks ago
Yes 100 101 1 1 week ago
Yes 100 101 1 5 days ago
Yes 100 101 1 3 days ago
Yes 100 101 1 3 days ago
Yes 100 104 4 3 days ago
Yes 100 101 1 4 days ago
Yes 100 101 1 4 days ago
Yes 100 104 4 3 days ago
Yes 100 101 1 2 days ago
Yes 100 100 0 2 days ago
Yes 100 102 2 19 hours ago
Yes 100 101 1 19 hours ago
Yes 100 100 0 19 hours ago
Yes 100 102 2 23 hours ago
Yes 100 102 2 23 hours ago
Yes 100 167 67 23 hours ago
Yes 500 781 281 23 hours ago
Yes 500 743 243 23 hours ago
Yes 500 672 172 1 day ago
Yes 500 650 150 1 day ago
Yes 500 645 145 1 day ago
Yes 500 536 36 1 day ago
Yes 500 535 35 1 day ago
Yes 500 553 53 1 day ago
Yes 500 529 29 1 day ago
Yes 500 532 32 1 day ago
Yes 500 531 31 1 day ago
Yes 500 740 240 1 day ago
Yes 1,000 1,455 455 1 day ago
Yes 1,000 1,000 0 1 day ago
Cashed in You predicted You staked You received You gained
No 100 101 1 3 weeks ago
Yes 100 128 28 2 weeks ago
Yes 100 126 26 2 weeks ago
No 100 111 11 2 weeks ago
Yes 100 106 6 2 weeks ago
Yes 100 101 1 1 week ago
Yes 100 101 1 5 days ago
Yes 100 101 1 3 days ago
Yes 100 101 1 3 days ago
Yes 100 104 4 3 days ago
Yes 100 101 1 4 days ago
Yes 100 101 1 4 days ago
Yes 100 104 4 3 days ago
Yes 100 101 1 2 days ago
Yes 100 100 0 2 days ago
Yes 100 102 2 19 hours ago
Yes 100 101 1 19 hours ago
Yes 100 100 0 19 hours ago
Yes 100 102 2 23 hours ago
Yes 100 102 2 23 hours ago
Yes 100 167 67 23 hours ago
Yes 500 781 281 23 hours ago
Yes 500 743 243 23 hours ago
Yes 500 672 172 1 day ago
Yes 500 650 150 1 day ago
Yes 500 645 145 1 day ago
Yes 500 536 36 1 day ago
Yes 500 535 35 1 day ago
Yes 500 553 53 1 day ago
Yes 500 529 29 1 day ago
Yes 500 532 32 1 day ago
Yes 500 531 31 1 day ago
Yes 500 740 240 1 day ago
Yes 1,000 1,455 455 1 day ago
Yes 1,000 1,000 0 1 day ago

ha petefin I have done the same, betting yes only, all cashed in for a profit...I haven't counted up but looks like i'm about 3K ahead. This q has been a nice lil earner - offsets me losing on all my created questions!

Guys I would have loved to bet on this. I have 500k in cash. But I'll be out on a trip in the mountains in four hours. I am counting on you for the story of the last hours of this market. Thanks.

Oh, I forgot. Remember, last second bid is the winning bid.

Maybe we have more winners than losers here. I staked 1000 overall and gained 1125 without cashing anything in.

Congratulations guys. A 8k gain for me. But I would've prefered more stories instead. I don't understand much of what happened here.

The only explanation I can think of is that sometimes people feel like giving away H$'s. What have they really lost?