Created Sun 5th Apr 2009 2:12pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

When will the high temperature in Washington DC first reach 95 degrees F (35C)?

Settled as July 16 to July 31

Went to 96 on the 16th at 233 PM
http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=lwx

Background:

Background: The earliest date the temperature reached 95 degrees Fahrenheit in Washington DC was on April 17th. Average temps for April is 69, May 78, June 85, July 89 and August 87. The record for May is 98, June 100, July 103 and August 105. The question asks: When will the official temperature recorded by the Weather Channel http://www.weather.com/ first reach 95 degrees F (35 degrees C)?

Settlement details:http://www.weather.com

Forecast history %

May 15 or before

May 16 May 31

June 1 to June 15

June 16 to June 30

July 1 to July 15

July 16 to July 31

86%

August 1 to August 15

August 16 to August 31

Sept 1 or beyond or not this year

Settled as July 16 to July 31 on Sun 19th Jul 2009 3:43pm PST

Activity: H$107,702
Predictions: 522
Comments: 8

Suspend date: Tue 15th Sep 2009 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 19th Jul 2009 3:43pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 16th Jul 2009 10:35am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: May 15 or before: 8%, May 16 May 31: 10%, June 1 to June 15: 12%, June 16 to June 30: 15%, July 1 to July 15: 15%, July 16 to July 31: 15%, August 1 to August 15: 12%, August 16 to August 31: 8%, Sept 1 or beyond or not this year: 5%

Action history:

Created Sun 5th Apr 2009 2:12pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Settlement requested Fri 17th Jul 2009 3:02am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: the national weather service ( http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx ) reports that the temp reached 96 degrees. the weather channel ( http://www.weather.com/outlook/homeandgarden/garden/monthly/USDC0001?from=yest_topnav_garden ) reports 95 degrees for yesterday, July 16. so, I guess it's time to settle this question as JULY 16-31. Thanks

Settlement requested Fri 17th Jul 2009 8:38am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$394,218)

: Washington dc reached 96 a day or two ago.. dont have source..

Settlement requested Sat 18th Jul 2009 12:52am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: Please settle this market, the temperature was reached on Thursday. I gave you the links yesterday. At least suspend it for now until you get to it...

Settled as 'July 16 to July 31' Sun 19th Jul 2009 3:43pm PST by

ryanj

: Went to 96 on the 16th at 233 PM
http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=lwx

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Predictions (522)

34 weeks ago

raidersin09 Level 14, Prophet (H$149,239)

predicted August 1 to August 15 (H$50 at 7%)

34 weeks ago

wabash Level 13, Psychic (H$97,804)

predicted August 1 to August 15 (H$100 at 5%)

34 weeks ago

acewang Level 6, Player (H$2,091)

predicted July 16 to July 31 (H$400 at 88%)

34 weeks ago

meri604 Level 9, Expert (H$9,188)

predicted August 1 to August 15 (H$20 at 5%)

34 weeks ago

acewang Level 6, Player (H$2,091)

predicted August 1 to August 15 (H$20 at 5%)

Comments (8)

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$394,218)

I lost my shirt on my own question.. likely more than 10K, because accuweather keeps changing its forecast. ugh...Anyone know how they get their forecasts? Out of a crackerjack box?

posted 36 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$394,218)

Ooops, sorry tuff, guess it was your question not mine.. I just keep betting on it so much, I was so involved.... great question.. wish you had not developed it.

posted 36 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

We have crazy weather here and even crazier forecasting. You can't believe anything they say more than a day in advance...

posted 36 weeks ago

Erik

Indeed tuff_sledding....I grew up in Annandale.

posted 36 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

PS, it's been an unusually cool early summer, but I am sure it will not last much longer...

posted 36 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Glad you concur, Erik. I've lived here for 25 years, I don't believe we've had a summer where it did not get into the high 90s.

posted 36 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,726,513)

Yep, and yet Portland is 5" behind normal rainfall on the year. It's an odd one.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=ICAO:KTTD&almanac=1

Here in the middle of the country (Denver) we've had an unusually wet summer after an unusually dry and mild winter.

posted 36 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

This one is over. 1 day temp spike on Thursday hit 95 degrees per weather channel, 96 per national weather service. I have flagged this for settlement...

posted 34 weeks ago

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