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How many tropical storms/hurricanes will occur this year in the Caribbean/Atlantic Basin region?

Background: Different years have different frequencies of tropical storms dependent upon global warming, El Nino, La Nina, and other atmospheric / climate changes. Last season, there were 17 tropical storms/hurricanes (included), but that was an active season. What will happen this season? (runs June 1 to Nov. 30th).
For information on this, see below (get your red hot tickets).
How many tropical storms in the Caribbean/ Atlantic Basin?


This site has information about hurricanes, frequencies, size, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane
This site has information about the seasons, and related information.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
fewer than 5 or 5
0%
6-7
0%
8-9
74%
10-11
20%
12
3%
13
1%
14
0%
15-16
0%
17-18
0%
19 or more, infinity, imaginary, irrational, etc
0%
Question suspends in 1 week

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: fewer than 5 or 5: 4%, 6-7: 5%, 8-9: 8%, 10-11: 10%, 12: 20%, 13: 20%, 14: 10%, 15-16: 10%, 17-18: 8%, 19 or more, infinity, imaginary, irrational, etc: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 7th Apr 10:39am PST by bigken1

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11:59pm PST (1 week to go) details

 

Predictions (140)

2 weeks ago
sailfurther predicted 12 (H$100 at 2%)
2 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 10-11 (H$300 at 20%)
2 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted 8-9 (H$4,000 at 66%)
2 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 10-11 (H$800 at 34%)
2 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 10-11 (H$600 at 20%)

Comments (5)

I heard on the weather channel yesterday that scientists are predicting 6 actual hurricanes for the 2009 season
posted 32 weeks ago
  2 sqlman[Admin]
Is it your intent to count only storms that form from June 1 to November 30? That is, will pre- or post-season storms count?

Oh, yeah: there were 16 named Atlantic storms last year, not 17. :-)
posted 32 weeks ago
  3 youbet
Indeed lots of tropical storms that never develop.....
posted 32 weeks ago
  4 bigken1
Nice comments everyone.. I think those that are specifically called tropical storms -- included in a count or list ....So, it is clear. I think they would count all those in the whole period, even if the timing is not exactly the official set timing... Likely as set by NOAA..
posted 19 weeks ago
  5 bigken1
Not sure where i got the 17 number, but I referenced wiki, so that is likely it...Anyway, hopefully , it won't be contentious.. HOpefully this clarifies things a bit..
posted 19 weeks ago

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