Created Tue 7th Apr 2009 10:39am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$394,044)

How many tropical storms/hurricanes will occur this year in the Caribbean/Atlantic Basin region?

Settled as 8-9

There were 9 named storms in the Atlantic region, 3 of which became hurricanes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Background:

Background: Different years have different frequencies of tropical storms dependent upon global warming, El Nino, La Nina, and other atmospheric / climate changes. Last season, there were 17 tropical storms/hurricanes (included), but that was an active season. What will happen this season? (runs June 1 to Nov. 30th).
For information on this, see below (get your red hot tickets).
How many tropical storms in the Caribbean/ Atlantic Basin?

This site has information about hurricanes, frequencies, size, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane
This site has information about the seasons, and related information.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

fewer than 5 or 5

6-7

8-9

89%

10-11

15-16

17-18

19 or more, infinity, imaginary, irrational, etc

Settled as 8-9 on Sat 12th Dec 2009 1:17pm PST

Activity: H$65,435
Predictions: 141
Comments: 5

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 12th Dec 2009 1:17pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: fewer than 5 or 5: 4%, 6-7: 5%, 8-9: 8%, 10-11: 10%, 12: 20%, 13: 20%, 14: 10%, 15-16: 10%, 17-18: 8%, 19 or more, infinity, imaginary, irrational, etc: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 7th Apr 2009 10:39am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$394,044)

Suspended Mon 30th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as '8-9' Sat 12th Dec 2009 1:17pm PST by

tisha

: There were 9 named storms in the Atlantic region, 3 of which became hurricanes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season

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Predictions (141)

18 weeks ago

sailfurther Level 7, Pro (H$4,830)

predicted 12 (H$100 at 2%)

19 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 10-11 (H$300 at 20%)

19 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$394,044)

predicted 8-9 (H$4,000 at 66%)

19 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 10-11 (H$800 at 34%)

19 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 10-11 (H$600 at 20%)

Comments (5)

jhouseholder Level 11, Legend (H$15,463)

I heard on the weather channel yesterday that scientists are predicting 6 actual hurricanes for the 2009 season

posted 49 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

Is it your intent to count only storms that form from June 1 to November 30? That is, will pre- or post-season storms count?

Oh, yeah: there were 16 named Atlantic storms last year, not 17. :-)

posted 49 weeks ago

youbet Level 14, Prophet (H$229,039)

Indeed lots of tropical storms that never develop.....

posted 48 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$394,044)

Nice comments everyone.. I think those that are specifically called tropical storms -- included in a count or list ....So, it is clear. I think they would count all those in the whole period, even if the timing is not exactly the official set timing... Likely as set by NOAA..

posted 36 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$394,044)

Not sure where i got the 17 number, but I referenced wiki, so that is likely it...Anyway, hopefully , it won't be contentious.. HOpefully this clarifies things a bit..

posted 36 weeks ago

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