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Will the US see an armed insurrection by the end of 2010?

Background: Times are tough and crime is known to increase during depressions. However, Brad Hicks has predicted "we [will] have mutiny, insurrection, secession attempts, runaway inflation, brownouts or blackouts in the power grid, and conceivably even scattered food riots by late 2010." (http://bradhicks.livejournal.com/427808.html). How likely is it this will actually happen?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
4%
No
96%
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 7th Apr 3:02pm PST by uberjoe

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (1 year to go) details

 

Predictions (36)

11 weeks ago
emt_ince predicted Yes (H$50 at 4%)
12 weeks ago
djbarker predicted No (H$100 at 96%)
15 weeks ago
apeiron predicted No (H$100 at 96%)
24 weeks ago
triciebird predicted Yes (H$20 at 5%)
30 weeks ago
undercontrol predicted No (H$20 at 95%)

Comments (5)

  1 constable1664
Wow - I think this all depends on the what constitutes "armed insurection". Are we talking a large organized group or 2 or 3 people who refuse to pay taxes and shoot it out with the IRS? (by the way, have you noticed what word is formed if you type TheIRS without a space?)
posted 32 weeks ago
  2 uberjoe
I think "secession attempts" suggests something a bit bigger than a couple of upset psychopaths. Here's the wikipedia definition of an insurgency: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection .
posted 32 weeks ago
  3 constable1664
@uberjoe - after reading the definition on wikipedia (see quote below) I believe that 2 or 3 armed tax protesters who claim that the IRS has NO constitutional basis may constitute insurrection. And I respectfully submit my position below.

As you are undoubtedly aware IRS agents are not sworn police officers yet carry weapons (as armed tax collectors); and some tax protestors doubt the lawful authority of the IRS.

While I do not endorse armed resistance to taxation I do see the “Tea Party” (April 15th) movement currently afoot as being capable of spawning violent insurrection, although sporadic and localized.

…."insurgency" often also carries an implication that the rebels' cause is illegitimate, whereas those rising up will see the authority itself as being illegitimate." - wikipedia

PS: I enjoy playing devils advocate, engaging in spirited discussion for its own sake. If we sitting down having a beer you’d note my laughter and smiles as a sign that this is all in fun!
posted 32 weeks ago
  4 uberjoe
I was going to ask if you perhaps had some insider knowledge :)
posted 32 weeks ago
  5 constable1664
@uberjoe - ME? Na, I'm just a small town constable.
posted 32 weeks ago

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