How many named storms will there be in the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Background: 
Colorado State University today released its annual April revision to its extended long range forecast of Atlantic seasonal activity and U.S, landfall strike probability for 2009, writing, "We anticipate an average probability of United States major hurricane landfall."
The revised forecast, prepared the school's Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, predicts there will 12 named storms (that is, tropical storms and/or hurricanes) in the Atlantic this year (down from December's original forecast of 14). By way of comparison, here are the past several years' April predictions for the number of Atlantic named storms, followed by the actual number that occurred:
2004: 14 predicted / 14 occurred
2005: 13 predicted / 26 occurred
2006: 17 predicted / 10 occurred
2007: 14 predicted / 15 occurred
2008: 13 predicted / 16 occurred
As you can see, they're generally fairly close, though--as in 2005 and 2006--they can also be wildly off. This question asks simply this: while CSU predicts 12, how many named storms do you believe will occur in the Atlantic during the 2009 season?
2009 Atlantic Storm Forecast (April revision) (PDF)
CSU Tropical Meteorology Project Forecasts
Eleven? Twelve? Thirteen?
Colorado State University today released its annual April revision to its extended long range forecast of Atlantic seasonal activity and U.S, landfall strike probability for 2009, writing, "We anticipate an average probability of United States major hurricane landfall."
The revised forecast, prepared the school's Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, predicts there will 12 named storms (that is, tropical storms and/or hurricanes) in the Atlantic this year (down from December's original forecast of 14). By way of comparison, here are the past several years' April predictions for the number of Atlantic named storms, followed by the actual number that occurred:
2004: 14 predicted / 14 occurred
2005: 13 predicted / 26 occurred
2006: 17 predicted / 10 occurred
2007: 14 predicted / 15 occurred
2008: 13 predicted / 16 occurred
As you can see, they're generally fairly close, though--as in 2005 and 2006--they can also be wildly off. This question asks simply this: while CSU predicts 12, how many named storms do you believe will occur in the Atlantic during the 2009 season?
2009 Atlantic Storm Forecast (April revision) (PDF)
CSU Tropical Meteorology Project Forecasts
Settlement details: As reported by the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov). NOTE: while the hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, this question will count any named Atlantic storm that forms between now and December 31 that the NHC counts as part of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.
Forecast history %
| 8 or fewer |
| ||||
| 9 or 10 |
| ||||
| 11 |
| ||||
| 12 |
| ||||
| 13 |
| ||||
| 14 or 15 |
| ||||
| 16 or more |
|
Question suspends in 5 weeks
- Activity: H$53,362 |
- Predictions: 106 |
Comments: 6
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 8:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: 8 or fewer: 10%, 9 or 10: 10%, 11: 17%, 12: 26%, 13: 17%, 14 or 15: 10%, 16 or more: 10%
Action history:
Changed Description Tue 7th Apr 5:15pm PST by 
sqlman![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
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sqlman: show details ... .newleads.com/hdimg/hurricaneoblique.jpg" width="300" height="207" width="300"><br/> <div style="padding: 3px ... United Styates major hurricane landfall." <."<br/> <br/> The revised forecast, ... the actual number that occurred: <:<br/> <br/> 2004: 14 predicted / 14 occurred <<br/> 2005: 13 predicted / 26 occurred <<br/> 2006: 17 predicted / 10 occurred <<br/> 2007: 14 predicted / 15 occurred <<br/> 2008: 13 predicted / 16 occurred <<br/> <br/> As you can ... Atlantic during the 2009 season? <?<br/> <br/> <a href="http:// ... /forecasts/2009/april2009/apr2009.pdf"></">2009 Atlantic Storm Forecast (April revision)</a> (PDF) <)<br/> <a href="http://tropical. ... Tropical Meteorology Project Forecasts</a><br/> <br/>
Changed Description Tue 7th Apr 5:29pm PST by sqlman: show details
sqlman: show details ... font-size: 120%;"><i>Eleven? twelveTwelve? Thirteen?</i></div></div><br ... an average probability of United StyatesStates major hurricane landfall."<br/> <br
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: Flagged by super user: Suspending as duplicate:
http://www.hubdub.com/m38062/How_many_tropical_stormshurricanes_will_occur_this_year_in_the_CaribbeanAtlantic_Basin_region_
onedave: Flagged by super user: Suspending as duplicate:
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Unsuspended Mon 13th Apr 12:02am PST by 
tisha
: This question is very similar to an existing Hubdub question, which is not ideal, but due to the longrunning status of this question we have decided to allow it to run.
tisha: This question is very similar to an existing Hubdub question, which is not ideal, but due to the longrunning status of this question we have decided to allow it to run. 
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 8:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (106)
divakaleigh
predicted 9 or 10 (H$5,000 at 98%)
bigken1
predicted 9 or 10 (H$1,000 at 88%)
tuff_sledding
predicted 11 (H$200 at 7%)Comments (6)
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score: 10
Reuters 27 weeks ago
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Private forecaster AccuWeather.com on Thursday cut its forecast for this year's Atlantic Hurricane season, which begins June 1, to 10 named storms from the 12 it predicted in March. AccuWeather forecast six of the storms will be
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Reuters 27 weeks ago
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Private forecaster AccuWeather.com on Thursday cut its forecast for this year's Atlantic Hurricane season, which begins June 1, to 10 named storms from the 12 it predicted in March. AccuWeather forecast six of the storms will be
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Scientific American 27 weeks ago
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I know some folks in the gulf that hope I'm right. ;-)
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