How many hurricanes will there be in the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Background: 
Colorado State University today released its annual April revision to its extended long range forecast of Atlantic seasonal activity and U.S, landfall strike probability for 2009, writing, "We anticipate an average probability of United States major hurricane landfall."
The revised forecast, prepared the school's Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, predicts there will be 6 hurricanes in the Atlantic this year (down from December's original forecast of 7). By way of comparison, here are the past several years' April predictions for the number of Atlantic hurricanes, followed by the actual number that occurred:
2004: 8 predicted / 9 occurred
2005: 7 predicted / 14 occurred
2006: 9 predicted / 5 occurred
2007: 9 predicted / 6 occurred
2008: 8 predicted / 8 occurred
As you can see, they're generally fairly close, though--as in 2005 and 2006--they can also be wildly off. This question asks simply this: while CSU predicts 6, how many hurricanes do you believe will occur in the Atlantic during the 2009 season?
2009 Atlantic Storm Forecast (April revision) (PDF)
CSU Tropical Meteorology Project Forecasts
Five? Six? Seven?
Colorado State University today released its annual April revision to its extended long range forecast of Atlantic seasonal activity and U.S, landfall strike probability for 2009, writing, "We anticipate an average probability of United States major hurricane landfall."
The revised forecast, prepared the school's Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, predicts there will be 6 hurricanes in the Atlantic this year (down from December's original forecast of 7). By way of comparison, here are the past several years' April predictions for the number of Atlantic hurricanes, followed by the actual number that occurred:
2004: 8 predicted / 9 occurred
2005: 7 predicted / 14 occurred
2006: 9 predicted / 5 occurred
2007: 9 predicted / 6 occurred
2008: 8 predicted / 8 occurred
As you can see, they're generally fairly close, though--as in 2005 and 2006--they can also be wildly off. This question asks simply this: while CSU predicts 6, how many hurricanes do you believe will occur in the Atlantic during the 2009 season?
2009 Atlantic Storm Forecast (April revision) (PDF)
CSU Tropical Meteorology Project Forecasts
Settlement details: As reported by the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov). NOTE: while the hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, this question will count any Atlantic hurricane that forms between now and December 31 that the NHC counts as part of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.
Forecast history %
| 2 or fewer |
| ||||
| 3 or 4 |
| ||||
| 5 |
| ||||
| 6 |
| ||||
| 7 |
| ||||
| 8 or 9 |
| ||||
| 10 or more |
|
Question suspends in 5 weeks
- Activity: H$40,286 |
- Predictions: 66 |
Comments: 1
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 8:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: 2 or fewer: 10%, 3 or 4: 10%, 5: 17%, 6: 26%, 7: 17%, 8 or 9: 10%, 10 or more: 10%
Action history:
Changed Description Tue 7th Apr 5:21pm PST by 
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: show details
sqlman: show details ... .jpg" height="207" width="300"> <"><br/> <div style="padding: 3px; ... ? Six? Seven?</i></div></div> <><br/> <br/> Colorado State University ... United States major hurricane landfall." <."<br/> <br/> The revised forecast, ... the actual number that occurred: <:<br/> <br/> 2004: 8 predicted / 9 occurred <<br/> 2005: 7 predicted / 14 occurred <<br/> 2006: 9 predicted / 5 occurred <<br/> 2007: 9 predicted / 6 occurred <<br/> 2008: 8 predicted / 8 occurred <<br/> <br/> As you can ... simply this: while CSU predicts 126, how many named stormshurricanes do <i>you</i> believe ... Atlantic during the 2009 season? <?<br/> <br/> <a href="http:// ... Forecast (April revision)</a> (PDF) <)<br/> <a href="http://tropical. ... Tropical Meteorology Project Forecasts</a> <><br/> <br/>
Suspended Thu 9th Apr 6:38pm PST by 
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: Flagged by super user: Suspending as duplicate:
http://www.hubdub.com/m38014/How_many_hurricanes_will_occur_this_year_in_the_CaribbeanAtlantic_Basin_region_
onedave: Flagged by super user: Suspending as duplicate:
http://www.hubdub.com/m38014/How_many_hurricanes_will_occur_this_year_in_the_CaribbeanAtlantic_Basin_region_
Unsuspended Mon 13th Apr 12:02am PST by 
tisha
: This question is very similar to an existing Hubdub question, which is not ideal, but due to the longrunning status of this question we have decided to allow it to run.
tisha: This question is very similar to an existing Hubdub question, which is not ideal, but due to the longrunning status of this question we have decided to allow it to run. 
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 8:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (66)
flamingo
predicted 5 (H$50 at 1%)
frogchopComments (1)
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This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
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score: 10
Reuters 27 weeks ago
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