How many major hurricanes will there be in the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season?
Background: 
Colorado State University today released its annual April revision to its extended long range forecast of Atlantic seasonal activity and U.S, landfall strike probability for 2009, writing, "We anticipate an average probability of United States major hurricane landfall."
The revised forecast, prepared the school's Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, predicts there will be 2 major hurricanes--that is, category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale--in the Atlantic this year (down from December's original forecast of 3). By way of comparison, here are the past several years' April predictions for the number of major Atlantic hurricanes, followed by the actual number that occurred:
2004: 3 predicted / 6 occurred
2005: 3 predicted / 7 occurred
2006: 5 predicted / 2 occurred
2007: 3 predicted / 2 occurred
2008: 3 predicted / 5 occurred
As you can see, they're sometimes close, though as often as not they've been wildly off. This question asks simply this: while CSU predicts 2, how many major hurricanes do you believe will occur in the Atlantic during the 2009 season?
2009 Atlantic Storm Forecast (April revision) (PDF)
CSU Tropical Meteorology Project Forecasts
One? Two? Three?
Colorado State University today released its annual April revision to its extended long range forecast of Atlantic seasonal activity and U.S, landfall strike probability for 2009, writing, "We anticipate an average probability of United States major hurricane landfall."
The revised forecast, prepared the school's Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, predicts there will be 2 major hurricanes--that is, category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale--in the Atlantic this year (down from December's original forecast of 3). By way of comparison, here are the past several years' April predictions for the number of major Atlantic hurricanes, followed by the actual number that occurred:
2004: 3 predicted / 6 occurred
2005: 3 predicted / 7 occurred
2006: 5 predicted / 2 occurred
2007: 3 predicted / 2 occurred
2008: 3 predicted / 5 occurred
As you can see, they're sometimes close, though as often as not they've been wildly off. This question asks simply this: while CSU predicts 2, how many major hurricanes do you believe will occur in the Atlantic during the 2009 season?
2009 Atlantic Storm Forecast (April revision) (PDF)
CSU Tropical Meteorology Project Forecasts
Settlement details: As reported by the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov). NOTE: while the hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, this question will count any major Atlantic hurricane that forms between now and December 31 that the NHC counts as part of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.
Forecast history %
| 0 (zero) |
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| 1 (one) |
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| 2 (two) |
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| 3 (three) |
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| 4 (four) |
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| 5 (five) or more |
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Question suspends in 5 weeks
- Activity: H$82,473 |
- Predictions: 124 |
Comments: 3
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 12:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: 0 (zero): 10%, 1 (one): 20%, 2 (two): 30%, 3 (three): 20%, 4 (four): 10%, 5 (five) or more: 10%
Action history:
Changed Description Tue 7th Apr 5:34pm PST by 
sqlman![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
sqlman: show details ... .jpg" height="207" width="300"> <"><br/> <div style="padding: 3px; ... ? Six? Seven?</i></div></div> <><br/> <br/> Colorado State University ... United States major hurricane landfall." <."<br/> <br/> The revised forecast, ... predictions for the number of major Atlantic hurricanes, followed by the actual number that occurred: <:<br/> <br/> 2004: 3 predicted / 6 occurred <<br/> 2005: 3 predicted / 7 occurred <<br/> 2006: 5 predicted / 2 occurred <<br/> 2007: 3 predicted / 2 occurred <<br/> 2008: 3 predicted / 5 occurred <<br/> <br/> As you can ... Atlantic during the 2009 season? <?<br/> <br/> <a href="http:// ... Forecast (April revision)</a> (PDF) <)<br/> <a href="http://tropical.
Changed Description Tue 7th Apr 5:35pm PST by sqlman: show details
sqlman: show details ... center; font-size: 120%;"><i>FiveOne? SixTwo? SevenThree?</i></div></div><br/> <br
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 12:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (124)
divakaleigh
predicted 2 (two) (H$300 at 90%)
frogchop
tuff_sledding![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted 2 (two) (H$2,000 at 74%)Comments (3)
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