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Will the US military attack any Somali Pirates land bases before June 1, 2009?

Settled as No

Hasn't happened...

Background:

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
1%
No
99%
Settled as No on Mon 1st Jun 5:38am PST

Suspend date: Sun 31st May 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 1st Jun 5:38am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st May 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 10th Apr 6:28am PST by lola
Suspended Sun 31st May 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 1st Jun 5:28am PST by drzinternet: settles NO
Settled as 'No' Mon 1st Jun 5:38am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Hasn't happened...

Suspend date: Sun 31st May 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 1st Jun 5:38am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st May 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (183)

24 weeks ago
andyfrancis predicted Yes (H$100 at 1%)
24 weeks ago
rohan_s predicted No (H$100 at 99%)
26 weeks ago
greggles predicted No (H$100 at 90%)
26 weeks ago
crowe predicted No (H$2,000 at 89%)
26 weeks ago
guruzilla predicted No (H$200 at 89%)

Comments (29)

  1 jeopardy
Great question ... thanks!
posted 32 weeks ago
  2 Erik
Piracy spurs Obama calls for cargo-ship reductions


"The United States is the number-one consumer and producer of cargo-shipped goods," said White House press secretary Robert Gibbs, "so it only makes sense that, if we're going to stop these attacks, and restore peace to the high seas, then the U.S. should take a prominent, and disproportionately-large role in marine freight-vessel cuts."

"We need to get rid of the old trans-oceanic M.A.D. doctrine of Mutual Assured Delivery," said Gibbs, "and look toward a safer future, where piracy no longer looms over the world as an ever-present threat. As everyone knows, President Obama is a visionary, and he can see the day when we'll have a world without nukes, and a world without cargo ships."

Greenpeace, the Sierra Club and former vice president Al Gore joined the chorus of praise in a joint news release celebrating the reduction in carbon emissions by eliminating fossil-fuel burning vessels, and tanker shipments of petroleum.

"President Obama is once again ahead of the curve," said Gore. "The inconvenient truth of the matter is that in just a few years, there will be no place to dock cargo ships anyway, since the coastal cities and their ports will all be inundated in brine."

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/scottott/Piracy-spurs-Obama-calls-for-cargo-ship-reductions--42793967.html
posted 32 weeks ago
  3 sqlman[Admin]
Gee, Erik, that's really funny... :-|
posted 32 weeks ago
Actually, it is. LMAOOOOOO. Nothing wrong with a little bit of good-natured satire, eh.
posted 32 weeks ago
Now, as far as this question goes, I'm pretty sure they're screening "Blackhawk Down" at the White House right now on a continuous loop in order to reinforce the idea that if your knowledge of military tactics is anything like Bill Clinton's was, you will not set foot on land in Somalia.
posted 32 weeks ago
  6 chatarra
After Obama's Apology Tour, (AKA G20 Summit), it is going to be difficult for him to use any military force.
This lack of presidential response (verbally or militarily) will encourage future attacks as the Somali Pirates line up for their own financial bailouts courtesy of the Obama administration and leading democrats in office today.

As Joe the Plumber discovered, Obama really is going to spread the wealth around.
posted 32 weeks ago
  7 chatarra
Army General William E. (Kip) Ward, Commander, United States Africa Command, speaks with The Press during an interview said, at the Pentagon in Washington. 'I don't see direct connections,' Ward later said about Somali pirates and Islamic extremists. 'But, again, if you look at the clan structure or the tribes - to think that there may not be linkages probably is a bit naive.

According to the Somalia Minister for Fisheries Professor Abdulrahman Haji Ibbi, "Lots of people who are pirates now are not from coastal villages". They are not fishermen. They are from inside, former militiamen (USC, SSDF, Al-Itihad, UIC and they are motivated entirely by money. The fact that illegal fishing and dumping of toxic waste still goes on in Somalia is excellent public relations for the Somali pirates. It means that when they capture a ship and they talk to a news organization and say, 'We are just defending Somali waters.

Sources HAN reporter In Nairobi.
http://www.geeskaafrika.com/somalia_10apr09.htm
posted 32 weeks ago
He will spread other people's wealth around, while maintaining his own extravagant life style. Here is one example:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1168940/Obamas-fly-chef-860-miles-White-House--just-make-pizza.html
posted 32 weeks ago
  9 bigken1
hi all, Thought I would add some comments, although some of this stuff really looks like a place for gags....

Notable -- having the chef come down to make pizza is atypical of Obama, so it is not "his own extravagant life style" as you put it.. Come on, get real, and give the guy a break. Of course, not too many can do that, but he is Pres, and if he wants to go on a Pizza bender, it is not a general habit.....

The others things dealing with the Somali pirates is a tough problem.. Not sure if we can just shoot up ports, etc..Nor does it go along with Obama's way of doing things, but the previous administrations way hasn't worked wonders either. It seems that neither the carrot nor the stick can solve the problem, since we are dealing with LOTS of people's problems, and they go beyond this symptom, of their country's problems. Unless those things are addressed, then all we can do is to move the ships further away and protect them better, use convoys, etc. etc...
posted 31 weeks ago
  10 dieseldog
bigken - you don't see the hypocrisy in flying a chef in to make pizza while ragging on wall street for the behavior? just like during the campain obama said the people can no longer keep their thermostats at 72. then he gets elected and cranks the thermostat in the oval office to high.
posted 31 weeks ago
  11 Erik
bigken - You state, "Not sure if we can just shoot up ports, etc..Nor does it go along with Obama's way of doing things..."
That's the point. No one knows what Barry's way of doing things is...He's never been in an Executive/administrative position.
Further, you say, "It seems that neither the carrot nor the stick can solve the problem, since we are dealing with LOTS of people's problems, and they go beyond this symptom, of their country's problems. Unless those things are addressed, then all we can do is to move the ships further away and protect them better, use convoys, etc. etc..." I disagree. I'm not concerned with their problems. I'm concerned with this symptom and that is exactly what needs to be addressed. Taking of a U.S. flagged vessel should have been swiftly and brutally dealt with immediately sending a message to all that it will not be tolerated.
posted 31 weeks ago
  12 sqlman[Admin]
All those who adhere to the old way of doing things--that it, who advocate that the U.S. should rush in, guns a-blazin', not stopping until all the players are either dead or safe--would do well to rememember that such unilateral actions far too often result in disaster. Relax, all ye who would attack there's no mollycoddling going on, and there isn't much in the way of negotiation' the pirates have no fresh water or food or ammo, and they're not getting any resupplied. No boats are being allowed near them; they are, in effect, being blockaded. They're alone and adrift. Now, it's not the U.S. is necessarily concerned with them, but the fact is, those pirates can offer something the U.S. wants--the captain--while the U.S. can offer something the pirates want: freedom. The U.S. knows this. The pirates know this. It's just a waiting game now.

Anyway, what would you guys hope to gain by killing the pirates now, which would almost certainly kill the captain? Aside from appeasing your inner John Wayne, what's the point of a 'brutal' retaliation? The pirates lives are already brutal; if they weren't, they most likely wouldn't have turned to piracy as an attractive way to make a living.

Believe me: the U.S. isn't being 'nice' to the pirates for any reason other than they wish to keep the captain--a civilian, I might add--alive until he's safely returned. If he's not? That little lifeboat will be blown so sky high that some of the pieces may land back in America. Now that will send a message. Let's just hope it's a message that doesn't need to be sent.
posted 31 weeks ago
  13 chatarra
Sqlman,
I just heard the lifeboat is getting preciously close to shore. While we follow your wishes for appeasement, the pirate lifeboat will get close to shore, take the captain as a hostage into a foreign shore and make any rescue attempt much more difficult. When that becomes successful then you will see a rise in similar attacks.

@BigKen1
Extravagance indeed.
Michelle Obama is the nation's first first lady to add a full-time makeup artist to her traveling entourage, according to stylists who have worked with presidential wives over the past 16 years.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04122009/news/nationalnews/glamour_first_164080.htm
posted 31 weeks ago
  14 sqlman[Admin]
Sorry, chatarra; the 'wimpy' Obama navy just rescued the captain, killed three of the four pirates holding him, and took the last into custody. See that? He didn't need to spy on any Americans, rewrite the Constitution to take away any American rights, or start a war with a nation that had nothing to do with the hijacking.

I guess the Right will have to find something else wrong with the Left...
posted 31 weeks ago
  15 emmag
OOOPS, too late, you cowboys. Three pirates dead, Captain is free. Go Navy.
posted 31 weeks ago
  16 chatarra
@Sqlman,
Now it is the Obama Navy? Good Grief. . .
But I am glad that Obama did authorize the force needed for the SEALS to carry out their mission.

And don't fret about the right having any difficulty finding something wrong with the Obama administration.
I fear there will be more than enough to worry about, as his fascist agenda becomes apparent.
posted 31 weeks ago
  17 sqlman[Admin]
Well, Obama is the Commander in Chief, so yeah... :-)
posted 31 weeks ago
  18 Erik
Amazing that we haven't heard from the "One" since this all started.
I thought he could solve all: http://www.hubdub.com/m32397/Will_another_person_have_their_problem_solved_by_telling_the_President_whats_wrong_in_their_life
posted 31 weeks ago
  19 Erik
diesel> in re: your comment #10 - perhaps this is what you were referencing:

"We can't drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times ... and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK."
Barack Obama - May 16, 2008
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h-wpxs1Re-8vx2Zk5xnYygW1W67w

Mr. Obama’s senior adviser, David Axelrod, who occupies the small but strategically located office next door to his boss said, “He likes it warm. You could grow orchids in there.” - January 28, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/29/us/politics/29whitehouse.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
posted 31 weeks ago
  20 Erik
"spy on any Americans, rewrite the Constitution to take away any American rights"....huh?
posted 31 weeks ago
  21 Erik
“The truth is, in order to get things like universal health care and a revamped education system, then someone is going to have to give up a piece of their pie so that someone else can have more.” - Michelle Obama

Will the First Family and their dinner guests plan to give up a piece of their Pi? It doesn't appear that they're willing to make that sacrifice:
Sommers was told to think big - the Obamas are expecting leftovers, he said. Sommers said the president and his family are planning to enjoy more pizza on their Easter holiday.
While Obama does nothing practical to stop the economic bleeding of the American system and its people, he has now established Wednesdays as his weekly revelry day — replete with cocktail parties, well known entertainers to amuse both Mr. and Mrs. Obama and their guests and dinners consisting of the best in imported fare — including multi-course dinners and $100/lb steaks. These are what are left of our tax dollars at work.

Obama kicks up White House entertaining:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090302/D96LSJP80.html

How's that $100/lb steak?:
http://michellemalkin.com/2009/01/29/obama-celebrates-spending-binge-with-cocktails-and-wagyu-steak/

Nero's fire and Christian Persecution: http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/christians.htm

Labor Leaders meet at posh resort:
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/06/labor-leaders-meet-at-fla-posh-resort/

End of union secret ballot:
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7014325882

Top Union Official sure of Card Check (AKA right to intimidate) vote:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hzfLtN25UeezCto1wQHo-PQsFSqwD96NGMT00

Obama's Enemies List 1: http://spectator.org/archives/2009/02/18/obamas-enemies-list

Obama's Enemies List 2: http://www.examiner.com/x-2888-World-News-Examiner~y2009m3d4-As-Americas-economy-crumbles-Obama-and-Pelosi-compile-enemy-lists

Obama's Enemies List 3: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19596.html

Pelosi Enemies List: http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090302/pl_politico/19481

Obama Gets his Civilian Military underway:
http://www.worldviewtimes.com/article.php/articleid-4546/Brannon-Howse
posted 31 weeks ago
  22 dieseldog
erik - yep thats what i was referring to in comment 10. just think what the MSM would be saying if a republican said that then did what obama did. good thing HD exsists so we can keep the public informed. :O)
posted 31 weeks ago
  23 lola
U.S. Military Considers Attacks on Somali Pirates’ Land Bases
By Jeff Bliss | April 13, 2009 | Bloomberg News

The U.S. military is considering attacks on pirate bases on land and aid for the Somali people to help stem ship hijackings off Africa’s east coast, defense officials said. The military also is drawing up proposals to aid the fledgling Somalia government to train security forces and develop its own coast guard, said the officials, who requested anonymity. The plans will be presented to the Obama administration as it considers a coordinated U.S. government and international response to piracy, the officials said.

The effort follows the freeing yesterday of Richard Phillips, a U.S. cargo ship captain held hostage since April 8 by Somali pirates. Security analysts said making shipping lanes safe would require disrupting the pirates’ support network on land. “There really isn’t a silver-bullet solution other than going into Somalia and rooting out the bases” of the pirates, said James Carafano, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based group.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYhvgOfyTmYA
posted 31 weeks ago
  24 Erik
sqlman> Is this what you were referring to?

Obama Administration Endorses Continued Spying on Americans
Justice Department Moves to Squash NSA Spying Suits - April 13, 2009

Since fatuously declaring his to be a "change" administration, President Barack Obama has quickly donned the blood-spattered mantle of state secrecy and executive privilege worn by the Bush regime. On Friday April 3, the Department of Justice filed a motion to dismiss one of the Electronic Frontier Foundation's landmark lawsuits against illegal spying by the National Security Agency.
That suit, Jewell v. NSA, was filed last September against the NSA, NSA Director Keith B. Alexander, President George W. Bush, Vice President Richard Cheney, U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey and Mike McConnell, Director of National Intelligence. But with the departure of the Bush gang, the defendants now include President Barack Obama, NSA Director Keith B. Alexander, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and Dennis C. Blair, Director of National Intelligence...
In this context, the Obama administration's drive to preserve the NSA's ability to illegally spy on Americans is intimately connected to the corporatist bottom line...
Arguments in San Francisco federal district court by U.S. Attorneys have been described by constitutional law experts as being "worse than Bush." In their motion to dismiss Jewell, the Obama administration cited the same perverse logic of the previous regime: that the state secrets privilege requires the court to dismiss the issue "out of hand."...
Arguing that the state possesses "sovereign immunity," the "change" administration now claims that under provisions of the disgraceful USA PATRIOT Act--a draconian law rammed through Congress in the wake of the 9/11 attacks--the state is "immune from suit under the two remaining key federal surveillance laws: the Wiretap Act and the Stored Communications Act."

I think right now, the Bush people are bringing out their mission-accomplished sign, because they've not only gotten Obama to protect Bush and Cheney and others from any criminal investigation on torture, but he's now gone even further than they did in the protection of unlawful surveillance. This is the ultimate victory for the Bush officials. They have Barack Obama adopting the same extremist arguments, and in fact exceeding the extremist arguments made by President Bush...
You cannot any longer suggest that President Obama is advancing the civil liberties and the privacy interests that he promised to advance. This is a terrible roll-back. It's a terrible decision. ("Countdown" with Keith Olbermann, MSNBC, Tuesday, April 7, 2009)
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13155
posted 31 weeks ago
  25 dieseldog
erik - thats not the only court battle obama is supporting. theres another one on the prisoners in afghanistan that obama is taking the same postion as bush. obama ragged bush's foreign policy yet he continues to follow it. funny how when bush was in charge the policies were evil..now obama is in charge their ok.
posted 31 weeks ago
  26 Erik
Indeed, diesel.
I'm shocked, shocked I say that this administration authorized the murder, in cold blood, of three foreign nationals. These souls did nothing to harm the Captain or his crew. In fact, all reports state that no crew members were harmed. Why were these mariners not given a fair trial? Could it be that Biden and his New England shipping cronies had something to do with it?
And now we hear talk of invasion of a soverign land to capture these merchant marines that this “cowboy” administration refers to as pirates.
Have we learned nothing from these past years?
posted 31 weeks ago
  27 chatarra
Sqlman,
"He didn't need to spy on any Americans, rewrite the Constitution to take away any American rights, or start a war with a nation that had nothing to do with the hijacking."

I think you were a bit hasty in your assumption.
WASHINGTON - A newly unclassified Department of Homeland Security report warns against the possibility of violence by unnamed "right-wing extremists" concerned about illegal immigration, increasing federal power, restrictions on firearms, abortion and the loss of U.S. sovereignty and singles out returning war veterans as particular threats.

He is busy rewriting the constitution and taking away the rights of those damn Veterans. The report states the DHS will be working with state and local partners over the next several months to determine the levels of right-wing extremist activity in the U.S. Most notable is the report's focus on the impact of returning war veterans.

You are right - he doesn't have to start a war with another nation, because he is starting a war with his very own nation.

A footnote attached to the report by the Homeland Security Office of Intelligence and Analysis defines "rightwing extremism in the United States" as including not just racist or hate groups, but also groups that reject federal authority in favor of state or local authority.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/apr/14/federal-agency-warns-of-radicals-on-right/

In one part they even mention:
...such as the violent Christian Identity organizations and ...

Can anybody tell me what a violent Christian Identity Organization is?
posted 31 weeks ago
  28 chatarra
C2R - better watch out.
You are going to end up on the watch list (along with about 1/3 of the country)

The report cites the April 4 shooting deaths of three police officers in Pittsburgh as an example of what may be coming, claiming the alleged gunman holds a racist ideology and believes in anti-government conspiracy theories about gun confiscations, citizen detention camps and "a Jewish-controlled 'one-world government.'"
posted 31 weeks ago
  29 Erik
"groups that reject federal authority in favor of state or local authority. "

Imagine such a thing. In a Federal Republic, yet....Oh wait-----

A Federal Republic is a federation of states with a republican form of government.

Never mind.....
posted 31 weeks ago

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