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Will Fiji be kicked from the Commonwealth by July?

Settled as No

Didn't happen by the suspend date...

Background:

Background: In the latest in a series of indiscretions - including a coup - Fiji's self-imposed dictator Frank Bainimarama has sacked the country's court of appeal judges after they found his regime illegal. This seems to be the final straw for the Commonwealth, and it is being reported that Fiji may be expelled by the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group, possibly earlier than the next scheduled meeting in September.

Will Frank (and Fiji) get the boot by July, or will the Commonwealth continue to turn a blind eye?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
4%
No
96%
Settled as No on Tue 7th Jul 4:13am PST

Suspend date: Tue 23rd Jun 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 7th Jul 4:13am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 23rd Jun 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 13th Apr 4:18pm PST by cookietime
Suspended Tue 23rd Jun 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 27th Jun 8:19pm PST by carpet: Settles as no - not kicked out of the Commonwealth.
Settlement requested Fri 3rd Jul 7:53am PST by keyeshoveden[Power User]: I haven't seen any news to indicate that they have been thrown out of the Commonwealth?
Settled as 'No' Tue 7th Jul 4:13am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Didn't happen by the suspend date...

Suspend date: Tue 23rd Jun 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 7th Jul 4:13am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 23rd Jun 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (53)

21 weeks ago
benamericana457 predicted No (H$50 at 96%)
22 weeks ago
jeopardy predicted No (H$1,000 at 96%)
22 weeks ago
gugoneaflorin predicted Yes (H$20 at 4%)
22 weeks ago
hoernla predicted Yes (H$20 at 4%)
22 weeks ago
zuzerey predicted No (H$100 at 96%)

Comments (12)

Here is a story about the possibility...http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/2333270/Fiji-faces-Commonwealth-expulsion
posted 32 weeks ago
  2 curios
Good q cookie
where as they are a blight on the commonwealth, and should be brought to task.
i cannot see it happening certainly not by july , but good one any way.
posted 32 weeks ago
They should have been kicked out years ago, how you can have a coup and happily stay in the commonwealth is beyond me. If they get kicked out it means more commonwealth games medals for the rest of us as well - although thats possibly not relevant.
posted 32 weeks ago
  4 randburg
Goodness Cookie dear! Look at ALL of the Commonwealth countries that have had coups over the years...and a few that DESPERATELY need one now (but won't get it)...

Britain brought a certain amount of civilisation to Africa and Asia, but unfortunately, not quite enough...
posted 32 weeks ago
  5 carpet
Haven't they already been suspended? I know a couple of linked news articles say they are "likely to be suspended", but that seems to be the reporter's interpretation of it. Everything I've found so far indicates the CMAG suspended them in December 2006 after the last coup. http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all?content=10.1080/00358530701189734
Have they been reinstated since then?
posted 32 weeks ago
  6 carpet
Bugger, try this link instead: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080%2F00358530701189734
posted 32 weeks ago
hmmm thats a good point, the commonwealth website lists fiji as a member state but has a note that it was suspended in 2006 after the coup. It doesnt say if its STILL suspended. But if it was already suspended, wouldn't Sir Paul Reeves (the commonwealth's special representative to the fiji islands who was quoted in the first article i posted) know that? The article i read said they were meeting to kick fiji out as opposed to suspending them, and thats how i worded the question. But having said that, I'm confused. Can anyone help?
posted 32 weeks ago
  8 curios
@carpet suspended is not kick out?
posted 32 weeks ago
  9 carpet
@cookietime: http://www.thecommonwealth.org/document/188111/concluding_statement___31st_meeting_of_the_commonw.htm , point "12. CMAG agreed that, in the meantime, Fiji should remain suspended from the Councils of the Commonwealth." They're still suspended.

@curios: Good point, I'll google around some more to see if expulsion is on the cards. But both the NZ and the Australian Foreign Ministers seem to be very poorly advised on this one. In an interview today, Stephen Smith said "Fiji can expect to be suspended from the forums of both the Pacific Island Forum and the Commonwealth", when they're already suspended!! So you can see why Bainimarama doesn't really give two hoots what Australia and Fiji thinks when they threaten him with something that's already happened!
posted 32 weeks ago
  10 carpet
Having done some more reading, I think Fiji is at risk of being expelled from the Commonwealth. It doesn't seem that very many reporters apart from Alexandra Kirk have done their homework, but this article discusses expulsion, even though Stephen Smith used the word "suspension" in three different interviews:
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2542290.htm
Having said that, the Secretary General of the Commonwealth has asked that the Foreign Ministers on the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group be consulted to determine the timing of a CMAG meeting as soon as practicable. So it is possible that the next CMAG meeting will discuss Fiji's expulsion from the Commonwealth.
http://www.thecommonwealth.org/news/177370/190039/100409sgfiji.htm
However, the wikipedia page on Suspension of the Commonwealth makes the uncited claim that the Commonwealth has an "absence of any mechanism by which to expel countries that breach its rules".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspension_from_the_Commonwealth_of_Nations
So now I'm back with cookietime, confused!
posted 32 weeks ago
  11 carpet
One final link. The Millbrook Commonwealth Action Programme on the Harare Declaration, 1995, B.3.viii states that Measures in Response to Violations of the Harare Principles may include "in exceptional cases, suspension from the association". I don't think that they have any options left beyond suspension, which has already occurred (see link @ #9).
http://www.thecommonwealth.org/Templates/Internal.asp?NodeID=34458
posted 32 weeks ago
  12 cookietime
This story has gone a bit quiet but here's an update, looks like they're about to be booted from the Pacific Islands Forum, and the Commonwealth is expected to follow the regional body - whatever that means...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/2376316/Fijis-suspension-automatic-McCully
posted 29 weeks ago

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