Created Wed 15th Apr 9:16am PST by

olaman Level 2, Novice (H$1,039)

Will a hurricane strike any of the 8 main Hawaiian islands in 2009?

Background: Will any hurricane strike any part of Hawaii (8 main Hawaiian islands) in 2009?

Category Editor Clarification
The suspend date for this question has been moved to the end of the Hurricane season for 2009. If no hurricanes have struck the Hawaiian islands by the suspend date, question will settle as 'no'. Strike will mean a direct landfall on one of the main islands.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

95%

Question suspends in 1 week

Activity: H$47,821
Predictions: 52
Comments: 8

Suspend date: Sun 29th Nov 3:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Wed 15th Apr 9:16am PST by

olaman Level 2, Novice (H$1,039)

Suspended Mon 1st Jun 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Changed Suspend date Tue 2nd Jun 2:53pm PST by

tisha

: was: "2009-06-01 15:59:00"

Unsuspended Tue 2nd Jun 2:54pm PST by

tisha

: The suspend date for this question has been moved to the end of the Hurricane season for 2009. If no hurricanes have struck the Hawaiian islands by the suspend date, question will settle as 'no'.

Changed Description Tue 2nd Jun 2:54pm PST by

tisha

: show details

... main Hawaiian islands) in 2009?? Category Editor Clarification The suspend date for this question has been moved to the end of the Hurricane season for 2009. If no hurricanes have struck the Hawaiian islands by the suspend date, question will settle as 'no'.

Changed Description Tue 14th Jul 2:06am PST by

ryanj

: show details

... question will settle as 'no'. Strike will mean a direct landfall on one of the main islands.

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Suspend date: Sun 29th Nov 3:59pm PST (1 week to go) details

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Predictions (52)

2 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted No (H$6,000 at 92%)

2 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted No (H$2,000 at 91%)

5 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted No (H$1,000 at 90%)

8 weeks ago

onedave [Power User]

predicted No (H$20 at 90%)

10 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,680,436)

predicted No (H$5,000 at 80%)

Comments (8)

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Clarification please: what does "strike" mean, exactly? Does the eye have to pass over, or simply have hurricane force winds register anywhere on the islands? Or perhaps pass by close enough to have tropical storm force winds associated with a hurricane? There can be a serious impact from a hurricane without it passing directly over the islands. Thanks in advance - just trying to tighten things up before it's too late....

posted 18 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Felicia seems to be heading straight for Hawaii! Should be there by early next week. Batten down the hatches!

posted 15 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

And not to be picky, but does the storm have to be a hurricane at landfall, or can it be something less so long as it has been a hurricane previously?

posted 15 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

sqlman's question has become very relevant. Felicia is making a bee line for the BIg island, but is weakening. I will likely make landfall, but may or may not still be a hurricane at that point. What's the answer???

posted 15 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,680,436)

tuff, you might want to flag for Tisha. The question writer hasn't placed a bet in the last 16 weeks.

posted 14 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

well, the question says "hurricane" so my guess is that a tropical storm won't do...

posted 14 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,680,436)

I concur, but you know what that's worth...

posted 14 weeks ago

onedave [Power User]

It appears that a hurricane will form in the Central Pacific. However, it should not strike the Hawaiian islands.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/THREE-C.php

posted 4 weeks ago

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