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Which of these things will happen to José Vicente Castaño Gil (first)?
Background: José Vicente Castaño Gil is a prominent paramilitant in and around the Córdoba Department of the country of Colombia.
Recently the Colombian military scored a significant victory in apprehending Daniel Rendón (another prominent paramilitant in the same general area of the country).
Vicente Castaño (as he is commonly called) is understood to be the leader of an armed group called the "Black Eagles" Águilas Negras that are known for being intermediaries in the drug business between the guerrilla and drug cartels outside Colombia.
Vicente appears to have gotten his start in this kind of armed banditry when his father was kidnapped by the FARC in 1981 and never returned, despite being paid a ransom of 150 million pesos. Vicente and his brothers then joined the rival group in apparent hopes of retaliation.
Note: if more than one outcome is true, the question will be settled as the FIRST outcome to be true chronologically.
Recently the Colombian military scored a significant victory in apprehending Daniel Rendón (another prominent paramilitant in the same general area of the country).
Vicente Castaño (as he is commonly called) is understood to be the leader of an armed group called the "Black Eagles" Águilas Negras that are known for being intermediaries in the drug business between the guerrilla and drug cartels outside Colombia.
Vicente appears to have gotten his start in this kind of armed banditry when his father was kidnapped by the FARC in 1981 and never returned, despite being paid a ransom of 150 million pesos. Vicente and his brothers then joined the rival group in apparent hopes of retaliation.
Note: if more than one outcome is true, the question will be settled as the FIRST outcome to be true chronologically.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| Vicente is captured & held by Colombian government |
| ||||
| Vicente is captured & held by another government |
| ||||
| Vicente is killed or dies without being captured |
| ||||
| Vicente surrenders and turns himself in |
| ||||
| Still assumed to be at large by suspend date |
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| Other outcome not covered in this list |
|
Question suspends in 20 weeks
- Activity: H$1,832 |
- Predictions: 7 |
Comments: 0
Suspend date: Thu 15th Apr 2010 11:59pm PST (20 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Vicente is captured & held by Colombian government: 35%, Vicente is captured & held by another government: 10%, Vicente is killed or dies without being captured: 15%, Vicente surrenders and turns himself in: 5%, Still assumed to be at large by suspend date: 25%, Other outcome not covered in this list: 10%
Action history:
Suspend date: Thu 15th Apr 2010 11:59pm PST (20 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (7)
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predicted Vicente surrenders and turns himself in (H$50 at 5%)Comments (0)
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