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When will the U.S. Navy next intervene in a Somali pirate hijack?

Settled as After June / other outcome

Hasn't happened yet...

Background:

Background: After losing a few of their mates to Navy sniper fire recently, Somali pirates now threaten to kill American sailors. See story: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090415/ap_on_re_af/piracy

But I think the more likely scenario is that more pirate thugs will meet up with American Navy personnel intent on thwarting their efforts. This question asks when will it happen that the U.S. Navy is reported to arrive on scene directly before, during, or after a ship hijack attempt and take direct action to capture or otherwise cause an outcome that defeats the pirates. "After" includes the period, if such occurs, during which a ship or crew has already been taken hostage.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Settle as last outcome if nothing happens before end of June.

 
Forecast history %
During April
0%
During May
0%
During June
0%
After June / other outcome
99%
Settled as After June / other outcome on Thu 9th Jul 4:42am PST

Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 9th Jul 4:42am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: During April: 33%, During May: 30%, During June: 23%, After June / other outcome: 14%

Action history:

Created Thu 16th Apr 4:42pm PST by raidersin09
Suspended Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'After June / other outcome' Thu 9th Jul 4:42am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Hasn't happened yet...

Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 9th Jul 4:42am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (104)

21 weeks ago
yurdinde predicted During June (H$5 at 1%)
21 weeks ago
smoothtoast predicted During June (H$20 at 1%)
23 weeks ago
guruzilla predicted After June / other outcome (H$50 at 92%)
23 weeks ago
hoernla predicted After June / other outcome (H$1,000 at 91%)
24 weeks ago
tahmkat3d predicted During June (H$50 at 6%)

Comments (4)

Okay, I think I've recast this sufficiently so that it's no longer considered a "death pool" question. It's only about Navy intervention now, and whatever action they may take is, well, whatever action they take.
posted 31 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
Thanks for redoing this raiders - I think it's a good question
posted 31 weeks ago
Hi, this is past the settlement date - can we settle up?
Thanks
posted 19 weeks ago
I love this development:

American ships buck trend, sail armed
http://www.examiner.com/x-2782-DC-Gun-Rights-Examiner~y2009m11d18-American-ships-buck-trend-sail-armed
Only hours ago Somali pirates attacked the USS Marsk Alabama in International waters. But unlike last April, when the ship was taken captive, this time the US flagged ship "responded with small-arms fire, long-range acoustical devices painful to the human ear and evasive maneuvers to thwart the attack."

The US Navy's 5th Fleet nearly immediately issued a statement commending the crew of the Marsk Alabama for "following maritime industry's best-practices . . . to prevent being successfully attacked by pirates." Vice Admiral Bill Gortney, commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command added that

"this is a great example of how merchant mariners can take pro-active action to prevent being attacked and why we recommend that ships follow industry best practices if they're in high-risk areas."

But the US Navy position is at odds with "the rest of the international community" claims Roger Middleton from the London-based think tank Chatham House. Middleton said that "I would think it's a step backward if we start privatizing security of the shipping trade."

[More at the link...]
posted 3 days ago

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