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When will former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra return to Thailand?

Settled as After 2009

The best we can tell is that Shinawatra is in Cambodia, which refuses to extradite him as that country considers him a victim of political persecution.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8343703.stm

Background:

Background: Thaksin Shinawatra Thailand's former prime minister hasn't been home in a long time. Thaksin is a well known political figure in Thailand and was removed from power in 2005 during a military-led coup. He was accused by many of abuse of power and corruption, and fled to the UK where he bought the Man. City Football club. In 2007 he returned to Thailand to run in elections, but was subsequently forced into exile into the UK again after the Thai government accused him and his wife of corruption charges

Thaksin Shinawatra enjoys the support of the poor, due to during his term he led fights for improved health care and debt relief as well as staging himself as against Thai elites. The current Red Shirt protesters are fighting for Thaksin Shinawatra's return so he can lead his country and the rural poor who have so much affection for him.

The current Thai government wants no part of that and has so far made it clear he will be arrested if he returns, most probably because earlier last month he called for revolution in Thailand. Seeing if Thaksin Shinawatra returns to Thailand is a good way to judge whether the Red Shirt protesters will gain ground in their fight with the Thai government.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
April, May, June
1%
July, August, September
2%
Other Time In 2009
2%
After 2009
95%
Settled as After 2009 on Wed 6th Jan 6:31am PST

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 6th Jan 6:31am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: April, May, June: 15%, July, August, September: 25%, Other Time In 2009: 25%, After 2009 : 35%

Action history:

Created Fri 17th Apr 2009 5:38am PST by ryanj
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 6th Jan 12:38am PST by keyeshoveden[Power User]: I can't find any news story that says he returned to Thailand last year.
Settled as 'After 2009 ' Wed 6th Jan 6:31am PST by sqlman[Admin]: The best we can tell is that Shinawatra is in Cambodia, which refuses to extradite him as that country considers him a victim of political persecution.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8343703.stm

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 6th Jan 6:31am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (39)

15 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted After 2009 (H$10,000 at 94%)
23 weeks ago
tinpeeba predicted After 2009 (H$100 at 83%)
27 weeks ago
harlech predicted After 2009 (H$20 at 83%)
27 weeks ago
ricey predicted After 2009 (H$552 at 82%)
31 weeks ago
bones predicted After 2009 (H$100 at 81%)

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