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When will former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra return to Thailand?

Background: Thaksin Shinawatra Thailand's former prime minister hasn't been home in a long time. Thaksin is a well known political figure in Thailand and was removed from power in 2005 during a military-led coup. He was accused by many of abuse of power and corruption, and fled to the UK where he bought the Man. City Football club. In 2007 he returned to Thailand to run in elections, but was subsequently forced into exile into the UK again after the Thai government accused him and his wife of corruption charges

Thaksin Shinawatra enjoys the support of the poor, due to during his term he led fights for improved health care and debt relief as well as staging himself as against Thai elites. The current Red Shirt protesters are fighting for Thaksin Shinawatra's return so he can lead his country and the rural poor who have so much affection for him.

The current Thai government wants no part of that and has so far made it clear he will be arrested if he returns, most probably because earlier last month he called for revolution in Thailand. Seeing if Thaksin Shinawatra returns to Thailand is a good way to judge whether the Red Shirt protesters will gain ground in their fight with the Thai government.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
April, May, June
4%
July, August, September
6%
Other Time In 2009
7%
After 2009
83%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: April, May, June: 15%, July, August, September: 25%, Other Time In 2009: 25%, After 2009 : 35%

Action history:

Created Fri 17th Apr 5:38am PST by ryanj

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (37)

6 weeks ago
tinpeeba predicted After 2009 (H$100 at 83%)
10 weeks ago
harlech predicted After 2009 (H$20 at 83%)
10 weeks ago
ricey predicted After 2009 (H$552 at 82%)
14 weeks ago
bones predicted After 2009 (H$100 at 81%)
15 weeks ago
tinpeeba predicted After 2009 (H$100 at 81%)

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