ryanj
When will former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra return to Thailand?
The best we can tell is that Shinawatra is in Cambodia, which refuses to extradite him as that country considers him a victim of political persecution.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8343703.stm
Background:
Thaksin Shinawatra enjoys the support of the poor, due to during his term he led fights for improved health care and debt relief as well as staging himself as against Thai elites. The current Red Shirt protesters are fighting for Thaksin Shinawatra's return so he can lead his country and the rural poor who have so much affection for him.
The current Thai government wants no part of that and has so far made it clear he will be arrested if he returns, most probably because earlier last month he called for revolution in Thailand. Seeing if Thaksin Shinawatra returns to Thailand is a good way to judge whether the Red Shirt protesters will gain ground in their fight with the Thai government.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
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- Activity: H$33,374 |
- Predictions: 39 |
Comments: 0
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 6th Jan 6:31am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: April, May, June: 15%, July, August, September: 25%, Other Time In 2009: 25%, After 2009 : 35%
Action history:
ryanj 
keyeshoveden![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: I can't find any news story that says he returned to Thailand last year. 
sqlman![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: The best we can tell is that Shinawatra is in Cambodia, which refuses to extradite him as that country considers him a victim of political persecution.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8343703.stm
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 6th Jan 6:31am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (39)
tinpeeba
predicted After 2009 (H$100 at 83%)
harlech
predicted After 2009 (H$20 at 83%)
predicted After 2009 (H$100 at 81%)Comments (0)
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