Created Sun 19th Apr 11:59am PST by 
ojw15
ojw15 
What will the main party's lead over the opposition be, after the next UK General Election?
Background: Regardless of who wins the next General Election in the UK (which must be held by June 2010) - how big will their majority be?
That is to say - what will the difference be between the number of seats obtained during the election by the party with the greatest number of seats and that of the party with the second greatest number of seats?
That is to say - what will the difference be between the number of seats obtained during the election by the party with the greatest number of seats and that of the party with the second greatest number of seats?
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| 1-30 |
| ||||
| 31-60 |
| ||||
| 61-90 |
| ||||
| 91-120 |
| ||||
| 121-150 |
| ||||
| 151-180 |
| ||||
| 181-210 |
| ||||
| 211 or more |
|
Question suspends in 35 weeks
- Activity: H$7,983 |
- Predictions: 32 |
Comments: 3
Suspend date: Sat 31st Jul 2010 6:59am PST (35 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: 1-30: 5%, 31-60: 10%, 61-90: 20%, 91-120: 25%, 121-150: 20%, 151-180: 10%, 181-210: 5%, 211 or more: 5%
Action history:
Created Sun 19th Apr 11:59am PST by ojw15
ojw15
Changed Question text Thu 18th Jun 2:56pm PST by 
tisha![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
tisha: show details ... HowWhat bigwill athe majoritymain party's lead over the opposition be, after the next UK General
Changed Description Thu 18th Jun 2:56pm PST by tisha: show details
tisha: show details ... number of seats? <br/> <br/> Starting percentages set according to a Sunday Telegraph poll published today (<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5179342/Damian-McBride-email-smears-Gordon-Brown-pays-the-price.html">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5179342/Damian-McBride-email-smears-Gordon-Brown-pays-the-price.html</a>) showing the Conservative Party with a 17-point lead, which would result in a 120-seat majority.
Suspend date: Sat 31st Jul 2010 6:59am PST (35 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (32)
predicted 31-60 (H$50 at 25%)
predicted 31-60 (H$50 at 24%)Comments (3)
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