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Who will win the Brighton Pavilion constituency at the next UK General Election?

Background: Caroline Lucas, the Green MEP, is hotly tipped to become the first Green MP in the UK Parliament. Will she win or will she be beaten by Labour or another party?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Green Party
53%
Labour Party
28%
Conservative Party
13%
Liberal Democrats
6%
Other
0%
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Green Party: 40%, Labour Party: 40%, Conservative Party: 7%, Liberal Democrats: 12%, Other: 1%

Action history:

Created Sun 19th Apr 6:20pm PST by void

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (1 year to go) details

 

Predictions (16)

5 weeks ago
harlech predicted Green Party (H$50 at 53%)
12 weeks ago
zollernberg predicted Conservative Party (H$500 at 8%)
17 weeks ago
void predicted Green Party (H$800 at 54%)
18 weeks ago
amybubble predicted Liberal Democrats (H$20 at 7%)
18 weeks ago
moonrat predicted Conservative Party (H$50 at 5%)

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