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Will the UK lose its AAA credit rating?

Settled as No

The UK has retained its AAA rating throughout the month of September.

Background:

Background: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/5209225/Borrowing-puts-UKs-AAA-rating-in-danger-after-Budget-2009.html

The UK is not expected to return to a manageable level of debt until 2032. Will the top quality credit rating survive for UK Treasury Bonds?

For the purpose of settlement let's say that by the end of September there has to be an S&P resetting of the UK's credit rating below AAA for this to settle as yes.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
2%
No
98%
Settled as No on Sat 3rd Oct 4:39am PST

Suspend date: Mon 31st Aug 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 3rd Oct 4:39am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 31st Aug 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Thu 23rd Apr 11:44pm PST by keyeshoveden[Power User]
Suspended Mon 31st Aug 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 9th Sep 4:28am PST by keyeshoveden[Power User]: I think we can settle as no. Yesterday S&P said that although it remained on watch until the 2010 General Election, there was no immediate chance of a change
Settlement requested Fri 2nd Oct 4:47am PST by keyeshoveden[Power User]: No - the credit rating is still AAA.
Settled as 'No' Sat 3rd Oct 4:39am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: The UK has retained its AAA rating throughout the month of September.

Suspend date: Mon 31st Aug 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 3rd Oct 4:39am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 31st Aug 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (42)

11 weeks ago
jamest predicted No (H$2,000 at 98%)
11 weeks ago
collieafc predicted Yes (H$5 at 2%)
11 weeks ago
jamest predicted No (H$10,000 at 97%)
11 weeks ago
jamest predicted No (H$10,000 at 96%)
13 weeks ago
dj_fu predicted Yes (H$20 at 5%)

Comments (2)

  1 frogchop
Love the pic!
posted 23 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
Looks like it's another sure thing, but just to be proper, we'll need to wait until the end of the month to settle...patience, please
posted 8 weeks ago

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