SWINE FLU 2009: How many states will report cases of Swine flu by the end of May?

@buckeyetom - your numbers are a tad off

"According to the WHO, the Government of Mexico reports that the number of cases of influenza-like illness (ILI), which they have been detecting since March 18, has increased steadily. At this time, Mexico is reporting 3 separate outbreaks of ILI, which includes pneumonia:

In Mexico City, 854 cases of pneumonia have been reported, of those, 59 have died.
In San Luis Potosi in Central Mexico, 24 cases of ILI and 3 deaths have been reported.
In Mexicali, near the border of the U.S., 4 cases of ILI and no deaths have been reported."

But the CDC reports only 7 verified lab swine flu cases in Mexico and 8 in the U.S. as of my conference call today.

The truth is somewhere between the two reports because not a ILI is swine flu and the viral cultures are slow to process.

"According to the World Health Organization?"...The WHO?. My settlement is tied to the Center for Disease Control, the CDC. They are more on top of a world pandemic than the UN!

@buckeyetom. I was simply suggesting that this flu variant is more wide spread than the numbers of cases and deaths quoted in your question. I was on the phone with the CDC yesterday (Clinicians Outreach at 1400 hrs) and they are very concerned.

I may have been carried to New York City: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/25/nyregion/25sick.html?_r=1&hp

it's in 6 different states they think, including massachusetts and new york

Umm, I'm not good at math, but aren't we missing an option for 19?

There hasn't been anything confirming the New York or Massachusetts cases yet. Only 11 confirmed cases in three states.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30398682/

Hi,

I've changed over the 13-18 option so it now includes 19, if anyone thinks this change adversely changes you initial wager please contact me and I will void yours. Although in most cases this market would've been voided, due to its already high popularity I've decided to let the market run with the change.

Regards,
Ryan

This is from the CDC site updated 26 April 2009

confirmed cases
California 7 cases
Kansas 2 cases
New York City 8 cases
Ohio 1 case
Texas 2 cases
TOTAL COUNT 20 cases

The U.S. has declared a public health emergency over the outbreak: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axGKQENccy7U&refer=home

This could be as serious as the Y2K virus.

There are now 44 confirmed cases in CA, TX, KS, OH, NY, and it's suspected in ID, MA, SC, SD, MI. 31 states? Ha! How about all 50?

Now 50 confirmed in NY, CA, TX, KS, OH, and suspected cases in SC, MS, NJ, ID, WI, NC, IN, MA, MI, AL. If all those hold, that's (duh) 15...

Fears of a Clown
http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1894059_1875312,00.html

Obama Orders New Name for Swine Flu

While President Obama has assured Americans there is "no cause for alarm" over swine flu, aides say he has ordered Homeland Security to begin referring to the illness with a less intimidating name in hopes of avoiding widespread panic.

"The word 'swine' is a bit scary for most Americans," an Obama spokesman explained. "It says socially repugnant, it says no redeeming qualities, it says big and dirty and dangerous. It's a word only a farmer could love."

"What does the President want to call the illness?" I asked.

"Well, we have to remain true to the origins of the disease. We put together some focus groups and almost all of them said they have really good feelings about Porky Pig."

"The Looney Tunes character?"

"Exactly. From now on, all government agencies will call the illness the Porky Pig flu. Swine flu is frightening as hell, but nobody's scared of Porky Pig."

The spokesman said Washington -- like the Mexican government -- is also prepared to pass out millions of paper breathing masks to U.S. citizens. There is concern, however, that Muslims might take offense at non-believers covering their faces.

"We don't want them to think we're mocking Islam," the spokesman said. "To allay those fears, the Porky Pig flu masks will be imprinted with a message that makes their purpose perfectly clear."

"What message is that?"

"Th-Th-Th-Th-Th-That's all folks!"
http://www.dudewithtude.typepad.com/dude_with_tude/2009/04/obama-orders-new-name-for-swine-flu.html

A related poll for anyone interested in the topic http://www.hubdub.com/m40013/When_will_the_United_States_Close_Its_Border_to_Mexican_Swine_Flu

4/28 @ 9:00 PM EDT: Six states have confirmed cases (NY, CA, TX, KS, IN, OH), and there are suspected cases in 17 others (WI, SC, NC, ME, MS, TN, AL, NE, NJ, AZ, CT, ID, MA, MI, FL, OK, NH). If those all hold, that's 22, up from three just three days ago. At this rate, they'll all have confirmed cases within just a week or so.

"Fun" fact: the lone Florida case so far is a Mexican gentlemen who spent a few pre-symptom days visiting a very crowded Disney World.

Now confirmed in 6, and suspected in 19 more. That's 25 (duh), or half of them (bigger duh).

tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...

90 cases now confirmed in 10 states (TX, NY, CA, MA, KS, AZ, IN, MI, OH, NV) and 286 suspected cases in 18 more...

We're now up to 31 states confirmed and/or suspected. Like I said: look for 50 by the time this is done... :-|

Final update for the night: suspected or confirmed in 36 of the 50...

4/30 @ 7:26 AM EDT: A/H1N1-2009 now suspected or confirmed in 30 states. That leaves only ten states with nothing yet: AK, GA, KY, MT, ND, SD, VT, VA, WV, WY. According to one source, at least three of those (GA, KY, VA) are expected to report suspected cases today. (Also, tests on suspected cases in 15 or so states should be made available today.)

I just heard this morning on my local NPR station that Colorado has two suspected cases now and has sent samples off to be tested.

Colorado is confirmed: http://www.9news.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=114628&catid=339

4/30 @ 5:17 PM EDT: 129 confirmed cases in 18 US states (TX, NY, CA, SC, NJ, DE, ME, MA, CO, KS, NE, IN, OH, MI, MN, AZ, GA, NV); 632 suspected cases in 23 additional states. That means options #1 through #4 are out of the picture...

There will be many more. There will be some deaths. But the media frenzy is missing an important point. Every year several thousand people die from regular, plain old flu (influenza A). They are the very old, the very young or the ones with a weakened immune system. Of course, that is no longer news.

Up to 19 now: AZ, CA, CO, DE, GA, IN, KS, ME, MA, MI, MN, NE, NV, NJ, NY, OH, SC, TX, and VA

(A few people have asked why the numbers I've been using are sometimes inconsistent with the CDC. The answer is that the CDC updates its website once a day, and in the interim many other suspected, probable, or confirmed cases come to light.)

The 19 above are now confirmed by the CDC as of 1100EDT on 5/1

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/
http://www.hubdub.com/m40399/Which_US_state_will_be_the_last_to_report_a_confirmed_case_of_Infuenza_AH1N1_aka_swine_flu_

At least three more coming up tomorrow (5/2), including Missouri and Florida (at a school just a few miles from my house...yikes!). So, we'll have 22 by noon tomorrow, according to the CDC, and possibly as many as 25 or 26. My guess: this one will be able to be settled by the middle of next week, if not sooner.

Well, I was off by one; there are now 21 states with today's addition of Connecticut, Florida, and Missouri (combined with the unexplained removal of Nebraska). That leaves us (obviously) 10 states and/or four weeks away from being able to settle this. With 8 states added in the past two days, I seriously doubt it will take that long...

As many as six or seven (or more) states may join this list tomorrow (5/3): Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Utah, Wisconsin, and--possibly-- Maine. If all of those join, that takes us to 28. But we'll know by about 11:30 AM EDT...

Well, I was off a bit; nine more states were added to the official CDC list today, meaning A) there are just 20 states left with no CDC-confirmed cases, and B) this market will almost certainly settle tomorrow (5/4), as at least three or four others should have confirmed cases today.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/

5/3 @ 21:24 EDT: It looks like at least six states should be added tomorrow (5/4): Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, North Carolina, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. If those are verified by the U.S. CDC, that's 36...enough to settle, with lots of room to spare...

Move your '20-30 States Report' bets now, guys... :-)

Thanks, coolkraft. There's also an up-to-date map at this page:

http://www.hubdub.com/m40399/Which_US_state_will_be_the_last_to_report_a_confirmed_case_of_Infuenza_AH1N1_aka_swine_flu_?comments=%22page%22%3A2

36 states have confirmed cases of A/H1N1 according to the CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/

FYI, it's up to 41 states as of May 6...