What will the high temp. in Washington DC do next? Will we hit 92 degrees or 60 degrees F?

Reply to the Cat ED's note above: not as high as you think. we did this before, everybody jumped on the bandwagon and the temp never made it that high. I made the starting odds higher for the 92 option in recognition of the possibility (40%). I would argue that, since the forecast high is 90 the odds are fair. If the forecast high were 92, I would say the odds are even (50-50) that it will or will not get there. Does that not seem reasonable to you?? See: http://www.hubdub.com/m34783/When_will_the_high_temperature_in_Washington_DC_first_reach_75_degrees_F
I implore you not to spoil the fun. The starting odds were perfectly reasonable. I don't think the CAT ED should make arbitrary decisions to void a market, unless the odds are clearly unreasonable, which they are not.

PS, the cat ed reaction is exactly what the question tests. People overestimate the probability of the event, because it seems so obvious that it is likely to happen. But when the prediction is for 90 degrees, it is as likely as not that it will fall short of 90, hit 90 or exceed 90. The odds of exceeding the forecast by 2 degrees surely are not higher than 40% when the odds of reaching 90 are only 50%!
The question I refer to above was created when the forecast was for 73 degrees. I made the starting odds of reaching 75 degrees similarly high as I did here. Everybody bid up the 75 degree option even much higher (not warranted by rational probability analysis) and the temp reached only 74, then went on for a long time afterwards with a lot of good action. We need a petition drive here to restore the question!

@tuff_sledding - I'm not going to offer an opinion on this particular market, but just to clarify, this question was suspended by a super user, not a category editor. Their job (one of many, all done for free) is to flag questions that they think need to be looked at by a category editor. So the catEd hasn't even reviewed this one yet. When he does (this one will go to Ryan) he can review the information you sent in and these two comments and make an educated decision on the market to either re-open it as is, or ask you to resubmit with slightly different odds.

OK, thanks for the clarification. That sounds reasonable. I have not figured out all the ins and outs of hubdub yet. I will await the educated decision of the Cat Ed. That's why I provided the supplemental information and justification for the odds as I created them.
Thanks again, jenni, you've always been very helpful.
Cheers,
M.
BTW: National Airport, where the observation station is for Washington, is right on the chesapeake bay. The proximity to the water moderates the weather extremes. For example today, while the rest of the area peaked at about 85-87 degrees, the temp at the Wash location never made it much past 80, because the weather has been cool until now and the water temp is around 50 degrees. So, now I've given away my secret. The odds were actually more than reasonable, given this bit of local knowledge.....

According to http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/airquality/pastweather/hourly/USDC0001?stn=0&when=042509, the high today (4/25) at the station I thought we were using here was 87. Now that we're getting near the ceiling, instead of betting on a specific temperature, it might be better to wager on, say, whether a record high temp will be met or exceeded by a certain date (hint, hint). :-)

sqman, you are full of brilliant ideas.
I think I will try that, just hope somebody doesn't void it.

"The odds when the market was initially put up should have been much closer to 60% for reaching 92, this even though it might not reach 92. This is because 60% odds don't represent anything certain either but are much closer to the probable reality of the situation."
WHEN THE FORECAST IS FOR A HIGH OF 90 DEGREES, HOW DO YOU ARRIVE AT THE CONCLUSION THAT THE ODDS OF REACHING 92 ARE 60%????? THIS IS IRRATIONAL!!!
FYI, the collective wisdom of the hubdub community wagering on my other market is that the odds of reaching 95 degrees by the end of May are 20% (http://www.hubdub.com/m37863/When_will_the_high_temperature_in_Washington_DC_first_reach_95_degrees_F_35C) Does this not suggest to you that your 60% odds of reaching 92 degrees are wildly off the mark????
THINK ABOUT IT.....

The temperature reached 92 the day after the market was created.