Created Sun 26th Apr 4:22pm PST by 
risk
risk Replacing Geithner to help Economy?
Background: This will be judged Yes if these two other hubdub contracts are both judged Yes:
http://www.hubdub.com/m32375/Will_the_US_economy_have_absorbed_the_financial_crisis_by_Feb_2010
http://www.hubdub.com/m35062/Will_Tim_Geithner_depart_as_Secretary_of_the_Treasury_before_midnight_on_31_Dec_2009
This question exists as a counterpoint to another question:
NOT replacing Geithner better for Economy?
Why do we need both questions? It's impossible to tell whether the choice of replacing Geithner has an effect on US economic prospects unless we have two contracts. The market will predict whether Geithner's replacement will help the economy or hurt it. You must use the prices of multiple contracts to compute the market prediction. Below is the formula. Variables are on a scale of 0-1, like probabilities, so a price of 25% = 0.25.
Let:
A = price of "Geithner to be replaced in 2009"
B = price of "Geithner replaced AND Economy to absorb"
C = price of "Geithner NOT replaced AND Economy to absorb"
D = B/A = the chance of Economy to absorb IF Geithner is replaced.
E = C/(1-A) = the chance of Economy to absorb IF Geithner is NOT replaced.
if E is less than D, then it is better for the economy to replace Geithner.
if E is greater than D, then it is better NOT to replace Geithner.
if neither, then it doesn't matter for the economy whether Geithner is replaced.
http://www.hubdub.com/m32375/Will_the_US_economy_have_absorbed_the_financial_crisis_by_Feb_2010
http://www.hubdub.com/m35062/Will_Tim_Geithner_depart_as_Secretary_of_the_Treasury_before_midnight_on_31_Dec_2009
This question exists as a counterpoint to another question:
NOT replacing Geithner better for Economy?
Why do we need both questions? It's impossible to tell whether the choice of replacing Geithner has an effect on US economic prospects unless we have two contracts. The market will predict whether Geithner's replacement will help the economy or hurt it. You must use the prices of multiple contracts to compute the market prediction. Below is the formula. Variables are on a scale of 0-1, like probabilities, so a price of 25% = 0.25.
Let:
A = price of "Geithner to be replaced in 2009"
B = price of "Geithner replaced AND Economy to absorb"
C = price of "Geithner NOT replaced AND Economy to absorb"
D = B/A = the chance of Economy to absorb IF Geithner is replaced.
E = C/(1-A) = the chance of Economy to absorb IF Geithner is NOT replaced.
if E is less than D, then it is better for the economy to replace Geithner.
if E is greater than D, then it is better NOT to replace Geithner.
if neither, then it doesn't matter for the economy whether Geithner is replaced.
Settlement details:As reported on hubdub contract settlements.
Forecast history %
| Yes |
| ||||
| No |
|
Question suspends in 10 weeks
- Activity: H$11,210 |
- Predictions: 3 |
Comments: 0
Get widget!Predictions (3)
predicted No (H$100 at 85%)Comments (0)
Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...
By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service
Related News 
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
Financial Post 27 weeks ago
adjustment away from its excessively leveraged state, and lending is starting to improve, U. S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said. Speaking to a group of community bankers, Mr. Geithner also said the government planned to reopen a US$700-billion
score: 10
CNBC 27 weeks ago
the painful adjustment away from its excessively leveraged state, and lending is starting to improve, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday. Speaking to a group of community bankers, Geithner also said the government planned to reopen a $700
score: 10
CHINAdaily 27 weeks ago
biggest and third largest economies could together do to end the global economic recession. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will be in China on June 1-2 for his first official visit. He will discuss with senior Chinese officials 'a range of issues
score: 10
CHINAdaily 27 weeks ago
biggest and third largest economies could together do to end the global economic recession. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will be in China on June 1-2 for his first official visit. He will discuss with senior Chinese officials 'a range of issues
score: 10
Reuters India 27 weeks ago
adjustment away from its excessively leveraged state, and lending is starting to improve, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday. Speaking to a group of community bankers, Geithner also said the government planned to reopen a $700
Related Tags
No comments yet
Please log in or join to add a comment