Created Sun 26th Apr 2009 4:22pm PST by 
risk
risk Replacing Geithner to help Economy?
Settled as No
Both of the conditions for a YES did not happen, so this is a NO
Background:
Background: This will be judged Yes if these two other hubdub contracts are both judged Yes:
http://www.hubdub.com/m32375/Will_the_US_economy_have_absorbed_the_financial_crisis_by_Feb_2010
http://www.hubdub.com/m35062/Will_Tim_Geithner_depart_as_Secretary_of_the_Treasury_before_midnight_on_31_Dec_2009
This question exists as a counterpoint to another question:
NOT replacing Geithner better for Economy?
Why do we need both questions? It's impossible to tell whether the choice of replacing Geithner has an effect on US economic prospects unless we have two contracts. The market will predict whether Geithner's replacement will help the economy or hurt it. You must use the prices of multiple contracts to compute the market prediction. Below is the formula. Variables are on a scale of 0-1, like probabilities, so a price of 25% = 0.25.
Let:
A = price of "Geithner to be replaced in 2009"
B = price of "Geithner replaced AND Economy to absorb"
C = price of "Geithner NOT replaced AND Economy to absorb"
D = B/A = the chance of Economy to absorb IF Geithner is replaced.
E = C/(1-A) = the chance of Economy to absorb IF Geithner is NOT replaced.
if E is less than D, then it is better for the economy to replace Geithner.
if E is greater than D, then it is better NOT to replace Geithner.
if neither, then it doesn't matter for the economy whether Geithner is replaced.
http://www.hubdub.com/m32375/Will_the_US_economy_have_absorbed_the_financial_crisis_by_Feb_2010
http://www.hubdub.com/m35062/Will_Tim_Geithner_depart_as_Secretary_of_the_Treasury_before_midnight_on_31_Dec_2009
This question exists as a counterpoint to another question:
NOT replacing Geithner better for Economy?
Why do we need both questions? It's impossible to tell whether the choice of replacing Geithner has an effect on US economic prospects unless we have two contracts. The market will predict whether Geithner's replacement will help the economy or hurt it. You must use the prices of multiple contracts to compute the market prediction. Below is the formula. Variables are on a scale of 0-1, like probabilities, so a price of 25% = 0.25.
Let:
A = price of "Geithner to be replaced in 2009"
B = price of "Geithner replaced AND Economy to absorb"
C = price of "Geithner NOT replaced AND Economy to absorb"
D = B/A = the chance of Economy to absorb IF Geithner is replaced.
E = C/(1-A) = the chance of Economy to absorb IF Geithner is NOT replaced.
if E is less than D, then it is better for the economy to replace Geithner.
if E is greater than D, then it is better NOT to replace Geithner.
if neither, then it doesn't matter for the economy whether Geithner is replaced.
Settlement details:As reported on hubdub contract settlements.
Forecast history %
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
Settled as No on Tue 9th Feb 7:35am PST
- Activity: H$41,322 |
- Predictions: 9 |
Comments: 1
Suspend date: Mon 1st Feb 7:59am PST
Settlement date: Tue 9th Feb 7:35am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Feb 7:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%
Action history:
Created Sun 26th Apr 2009 4:22pm PST by risk
risk
Suspended Mon 1st Feb 7:59am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 1st Feb 10:56am PST by 
dieseldog
: settle as no please. i think its safe to say unemployment is above 7.6%. live on the edge and settle before the numbers come out. also geithner didn't leave by dec 31st.
dieseldog: settle as no please. i think its safe to say unemployment is above 7.6%. live on the edge and settle before the numbers come out. also geithner didn't leave by dec 31st.
Settlement requested Tue 2nd Feb 6:43pm PST by dieseldog: i'm guessing the "school teacher" part of you refuses to use the 99% rule. in this case you don't need the unemployment numbers. for this question to settle as yes, Geithner had to leave office by dec 31st. that didn't happen, therefore this question can settle as no.
http://www.hubdub.com/m35062/Will_Tim_Geithner_depart_as_Secretary_of_the_Treasury_before_midnight_on_31_Dec_2009
dieseldog: i'm guessing the "school teacher" part of you refuses to use the 99% rule. in this case you don't need the unemployment numbers. for this question to settle as yes, Geithner had to leave office by dec 31st. that didn't happen, therefore this question can settle as no.
http://www.hubdub.com/m35062/Will_Tim_Geithner_depart_as_Secretary_of_the_Treasury_before_midnight_on_31_Dec_2009
Settlement requested Fri 5th Feb 10:54am PST by dieseldog: numbers are out. can you please settle this.
National 9.7 percent - January 2010
http://dol.sd.gov/unemploymentrate.aspx
The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January and nonfarm payroll employment.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/
dieseldog: numbers are out. can you please settle this.
National 9.7 percent - January 2010
http://dol.sd.gov/unemploymentrate.aspx
The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January and nonfarm payroll employment.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/
Settled as 'No' Tue 9th Feb 7:35am PST by 
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: Both of the conditions for a YES did not happen, so this is a NO
bayoubear: Both of the conditions for a YES did not happen, so this is a NO 
Suspend date: Mon 1st Feb 7:59am PST
Settlement date: Tue 9th Feb 7:35am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Feb 7:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (9)
predicted No (H$50 at 91%)
predicted No (H$100 at 85%)Comments (1)
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This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
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Related Tags
why hasn't then been settled? its been over a week and your settling other questions. if your only gonna settle your daily questions through the week, then a simple statement saying so would be nice. that way we know why questions like these are waiting to be settled.
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