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"Doomsday 2012" to occur

Background: Some series of events will occur in the year 2012 that confirms the predictions of "Doomsday 2012" that are currently circulating in popular culture. Described here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_21,_2012

Among the events that could cause a Yes judgement:

- 20 million or more people die in some disaster, epidemic, or violent event or series of events
- $2 trillion or more of damage caused by natural or human-caused disasters, including wars and terrorist attacks

Any event or series of events that is widely reported as confirming the 2012 doomsday predictions in mainstream, reputable news sources will qualify as a yes answer. These events should occur in 2012 and be largely initiated during the year 2012.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
6%
No
94%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 7:59am PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Sun 26th Apr 2009 8:26pm PST by risk

Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 7:59am PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (36)

4 days ago
ipredict predicted No (H$100 at 94%)
4 days ago
predict101 predicted No (H$100 at 94%)
10 weeks ago
joffi predicted No (H$500 at 95%)
10 weeks ago
borntorefuse predicted Yes (H$20 at 5%)
12 weeks ago
guruzilla predicted No (H$100 at 95%)

Comments (7)

...those little sidebar ads on this site have been advertising doomsday 2012 for months now :)
posted 46 weeks ago
  2 scary
I can just imagine it on 22nd December.....
'The world's in ruins but at least I have won a few hundred fictional dollars on a website'! :)
posted 46 weeks ago
  3 risk
True, but no-one has to bet "yes" for there to be a prediction. Also, even if 20 mm die or there's $2t in damage, hubdub might still be a worthwhile exercise.
posted 46 weeks ago
hey hang on a sec "risk" you've changed your name, thats the second person I've seen do it - how did you do it? I'm looking to go for something a bit more relevant than the brand of cookie i was eating when I joined the site...
posted 46 weeks ago
haha @ scary's comment

Yeah, I believe that there is some validity to these predictions, but I don't know if I would want to win fake money for the death of 20 million people or some sort of nuclear or natural disaster. Plus, a "doomsday" is technically the death of everyone on the planet so it wouldn't really be a doomsday unless everyone died.
posted 40 weeks ago
NEVER QUESTION THE WORDS OF THE ANCIENT MAYANS . . .
posted 40 weeks ago
I take it George W. Bush coming back into power settles the question as YES?
posted 27 weeks ago

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